Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink
Julie Loisel, Angela Gallego‐Sala, Matthew J. Amesbury, Gabriel Magnan, Gusti Z. Anshari, David W. Beilman, Juan C. Benavides, Jerome Blewett, Philip Camill, Dan J. Charman, Sakonvan Chawchai, Alexandra L. Hedgpeth, Thomas Kleinen, Atte Korhola, David J. Large, Claudia A. Mansilla, Jurek Müller, Simon van Bellen, Jason B. West, Zicheng Yu, Jill L. Bubier, Michelle Garneau, Tim R. Moore, A. Britta K. Sannel, Susan Page, Minna Väliranta, Michel Bechtold, Victor Brovkin, Lydia E. S. Cole, Jeffrey P. Chanton, Torben R. Christensen, Marissa A. Davies, François De Vleeschouwer, Sarah A. Finkelstein, Steve Frolking, Mariusz Gałka, Laure Gandois, Nicholas T. Girkin, Lorna I. Harris, Andreas Heinemeyer, Alison M. Hoyt, Miriam C. Jones, Fortunat Joos, Sari Juutinen, Karl Kaiser, Terri Lacourse, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Tuula Larmola, Jens Leifeld, Annalea Lohila, Alice M. Milner, Kari Minkkinen, Patrick Moss, B. David A. Naafs, J. E. Nichols, Jonathan A. O’Donnell, Richard J. Payne, Michael Philben, Sanna Piilo, Anne Quillet, Amila Sandaruwan Ratnayake, Thomas P. Roland, Sofie Sjögersten, Oliver Sonnentag, Graeme T. Swindles, Ward Swinnen, Julie Talbot, Claire C. Treat, Alex Valach, Jianghua Wu
Abstract
The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus. Peatlands are impacted by climate and land-use changes, with feedback to warming by acting as either sources or sinks of carbon. Expert elicitation combined with literature review reveals key drivers of change that alter peatland carbon dynamics, with implications for improving models.- Cite:
- Julie Loisel, Angela Gallego‐Sala, Matthew J. Amesbury, Gabriel Magnan, Gusti Z. Anshari, David W. Beilman, Juan C. Benavides, Jerome Blewett, Philip Camill, Dan J. Charman, Sakonvan Chawchai, Alexandra L. Hedgpeth, Thomas Kleinen, Atte Korhola, David J. Large, Claudia A. Mansilla, Jurek Müller, Simon van Bellen, Jason B. West, et al.. 2020. Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink. Nature Climate Change, Volume 11, Issue 1, 11(1):70–77.
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@article{Loisel-2020-Expert,
title = "Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink",
author = {Loisel, Julie and
Gallego‐Sala, Angela and
Amesbury, Matthew J. and
Magnan, Gabriel and
Anshari, Gusti Z. and
Beilman, David W. and
Benavides, Juan C. and
Blewett, Jerome and
Camill, Philip and
Charman, Dan J. and
Chawchai, Sakonvan and
Hedgpeth, Alexandra L. and
Kleinen, Thomas and
Korhola, Atte and
Large, David J. and
Mansilla, Claudia A. and
M{\"u}ller, Jurek and
Bellen, Simon van and
West, Jason B. and
Yu, Zicheng and
Bubier, Jill L. and
Garneau, Michelle and
Moore, Tim R. and
Sannel, A. Britta K. and
Page, Susan and
V{\"a}liranta, Minna and
Bechtold, Michel and
Brovkin, Victor and
Cole, Lydia E. S. and
Chanton, Jeffrey P. and
Christensen, Torben R. and
Davies, Marissa A. and
Vleeschouwer, Fran{\c{c}}ois De and
Finkelstein, Sarah A. and
Frolking, Steve and
Ga{\l}ka, Mariusz and
Gandois, Laure and
Girkin, Nicholas T. and
Harris, Lorna I. and
Heinemeyer, Andreas and
Hoyt, Alison M. and
Jones, Miriam C. and
Joos, Fortunat and
Juutinen, Sari and
Kaiser, Karl and
Lacourse, Terri and
Lamentowicz, Mariusz and
Larmola, Tuula and
Leifeld, Jens and
Lohila, Annalea and
Milner, Alice M. and
Minkkinen, Kari and
Moss, Patrick and
Naafs, B. David A. and
Nichols, J. E. and
O{'}Donnell, Jonathan A. and
Payne, Richard J. and
Philben, Michael and
Piilo, Sanna and
Quillet, Anne and
Ratnayake, Amila Sandaruwan and
Roland, Thomas P. and
Sj{\"o}gersten, Sofie and
Sonnentag, Oliver and
Swindles, Graeme T. and
Swinnen, Ward and
Talbot, Julie and
Treat, Claire C. and
Valach, Alex and
Wu, Jianghua},
journal = "Nature Climate Change, Volume 11, Issue 1",
volume = "11",
number = "1",
year = "2020",
publisher = "Springer Science and Business Media LLC",
url = "https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G20-9001",
doi = "10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0",
pages = "70--77",
abstract = "The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland{--}carbon{--}climate nexus. Peatlands are impacted by climate and land-use changes, with feedback to warming by acting as either sources or sinks of carbon. Expert elicitation combined with literature review reveals key drivers of change that alter peatland carbon dynamics, with implications for improving models.",
}
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<abstract>The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus. Peatlands are impacted by climate and land-use changes, with feedback to warming by acting as either sources or sinks of carbon. Expert elicitation combined with literature review reveals key drivers of change that alter peatland carbon dynamics, with implications for improving models.</abstract>
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<identifier type="doi">10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0</identifier>
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<url>https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G20-9001</url>
</location>
<part>
<date>2020</date>
<detail type="volume"><number>11</number></detail>
<detail type="issue"><number>1</number></detail>
<extent unit="page">
<start>70</start>
<end>77</end>
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%0 Journal Article %T Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink %A Loisel, Julie %A Gallego‐Sala, Angela %A Amesbury, Matthew J. %A Magnan, Gabriel %A Anshari, Gusti Z. %A Beilman, David W. %A Benavides, Juan C. %A Blewett, Jerome %A Camill, Philip %A Charman, Dan J. %A Chawchai, Sakonvan %A Hedgpeth, Alexandra L. %A Kleinen, Thomas %A Korhola, Atte %A Large, David J. %A Mansilla, Claudia A. %A Müller, Jurek %A Bellen, Simon van %A West, Jason B. %A Yu, Zicheng %A Bubier, Jill L. %A Garneau, Michelle %A Moore, Tim R. %A Sannel, A. Britta K. %A Page, Susan %A Väliranta, Minna %A Bechtold, Michel %A Brovkin, Victor %A Cole, Lydia E. S. %A Chanton, Jeffrey P. %A Christensen, Torben R. %A Davies, Marissa A. %A Vleeschouwer, François De %A Finkelstein, Sarah A. %A Frolking, Steve %A Gałka, Mariusz %A Gandois, Laure %A Girkin, Nicholas T. %A Harris, Lorna I. %A Heinemeyer, Andreas %A Hoyt, Alison M. %A Jones, Miriam C. %A Joos, Fortunat %A Juutinen, Sari %A Kaiser, Karl %A Lacourse, Terri %A Lamentowicz, Mariusz %A Larmola, Tuula %A Leifeld, Jens %A Lohila, Annalea %A Milner, Alice M. %A Minkkinen, Kari %A Moss, Patrick %A Naafs, B. David A. %A Nichols, J. E. %A O’Donnell, Jonathan A. %A Payne, Richard J. %A Philben, Michael %A Piilo, Sanna %A Quillet, Anne %A Ratnayake, Amila Sandaruwan %A Roland, Thomas P. %A Sjögersten, Sofie %A Sonnentag, Oliver %A Swindles, Graeme T. %A Swinnen, Ward %A Talbot, Julie %A Treat, Claire C. %A Valach, Alex %A Wu, Jianghua %J Nature Climate Change, Volume 11, Issue 1 %D 2020 %V 11 %N 1 %I Springer Science and Business Media LLC %F Loisel-2020-Expert %X The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus. Peatlands are impacted by climate and land-use changes, with feedback to warming by acting as either sources or sinks of carbon. Expert elicitation combined with literature review reveals key drivers of change that alter peatland carbon dynamics, with implications for improving models. %R 10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0 %U https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G20-9001 %U https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0 %P 70-77
Markdown (Informal)
[Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink](https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G20-9001) (Loisel et al., GWF 2020)
- Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink (Loisel et al., GWF 2020)
ACL
- Julie Loisel, Angela Gallego‐Sala, Matthew J. Amesbury, Gabriel Magnan, Gusti Z. Anshari, David W. Beilman, Juan C. Benavides, Jerome Blewett, Philip Camill, Dan J. Charman, Sakonvan Chawchai, Alexandra L. Hedgpeth, Thomas Kleinen, Atte Korhola, David J. Large, Claudia A. Mansilla, Jurek Müller, Simon van Bellen, Jason B. West, et al.. 2020. Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink. Nature Climate Change, Volume 11, Issue 1, 11(1):70–77.