@article{DeBeer-2021-Summary,
title = "Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada {--} Part~2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology",
author = "DeBeer, C. M. and
Wheater, H. S. and
Pomeroy, John W. and
Barr, Alan and
Baltzer, Jennifer L. and
Johnstone, Jill F. and
Turetsky, M. R. and
Stewart, Ronald E. and
Hayashi, Masaki and
Kamp, Garth van der and
Marshall, Shawn J. and
Campbell, Elizabeth M. and
Marsh, Philip and
Carey, Sean K. and
Quinton, W. L. and
Li, Yanping and
Razavi, Saman and
Berg, Aaron and
McDonnell, Jeffrey J. and
Spence, Christopher and
Helgason, Warren and
Ireson, Andrew and
Black, T. Andrew and
Elshamy, Mohamed and
Yassin, Fuad and
Davison, Bruce and
Howard, Allan and
Th{\'e}riault, Julie M. and
Shook, Kevin and
Demuth, Michael N. and
Pietroniro, Alain and
DeBeer, C. M. and
Wheater, H. S. and
Pomeroy, John W. and
Barr, Alan and
Baltzer, Jennifer L. and
Johnstone, Jill F. and
Turetsky, M. R. and
Stewart, Ronald E. and
Hayashi, Masaki and
Kamp, Garth van der and
Marshall, Shawn J. and
Campbell, Elizabeth M. and
Marsh, Philip and
Carey, Sean K. and
Quinton, W. L. and
Li, Yanping and
Razavi, Saman and
Berg, Aaron and
McDonnell, Jeffrey J. and
Spence, Christopher and
Helgason, Warren and
Ireson, Andrew and
Black, T. Andrew and
Elshamy, Mohamed and
Yassin, Fuad and
Davison, Bruce and
Howard, Allan and
Th{\'e}riault, Julie M. and
Shook, Kevin and
Demuth, Michael N. and
Pietroniro, Alain",
journal = "Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 25, Issue 4",
volume = "25",
number = "4",
year = "2021",
publisher = "Copernicus GmbH",
url = "https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G21-181001",
doi = "10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021",
pages = "1849--1882",
abstract = "Abstract. The interior of western Canada, like many similar cold mid- to high-latitude regions worldwide, is undergoing extensive and rapid climate and environmental change, which may accelerate in the coming decades. Understanding and predicting changes in coupled climate{--}land{--}hydrological systems are crucial to society yet limited by lack of understanding of changes in cold-region process responses and interactions, along with their representation in most current-generation land-surface and hydrological models. It is essential to consider the underlying processes and base predictive models on the proper physics, especially under conditions of non-stationarity where the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future and system trajectories can be unexpected. These challenges were forefront in the recently completed Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), which assembled and focused a wide range of multi-disciplinary expertise to improve the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of change over the cold interior of western Canada. CCRN advanced knowledge of fundamental cold-region ecological and hydrological processes through observation and experimentation across a network of highly instrumented research basins and other sites. Significant efforts were made to improve the functionality and process representation, based on this improved understanding, within the fine-scale Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform and the large-scale Mod{\'e}lisation Environmentale Communautaire (MEC) {--} Surface and Hydrology (MESH) model. These models were, and continue to be, applied under past and projected future climates and under current and expected future land and vegetation cover configurations to diagnose historical change and predict possible future hydrological responses. This second of two articles synthesizes the nature and understanding of cold-region processes and Earth system responses to future climate, as advanced by CCRN. These include changing precipitation and moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere; altered snow regimes, changing balance of snowfall and rainfall, and glacier loss; vegetation responses to climate and the loss of ecosystem resilience to wildfire and disturbance; thawing permafrost and its influence on landscapes and hydrology; groundwater storage and cycling and its connections to surface water; and stream and river discharge as influenced by the various drivers of hydrological change. Collective insights, expert elicitation, and model application are used to provide a synthesis of this change over the CCRN region for the late 21st century.",
}
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<abstract>Abstract. The interior of western Canada, like many similar cold mid- to high-latitude regions worldwide, is undergoing extensive and rapid climate and environmental change, which may accelerate in the coming decades. Understanding and predicting changes in coupled climate–land–hydrological systems are crucial to society yet limited by lack of understanding of changes in cold-region process responses and interactions, along with their representation in most current-generation land-surface and hydrological models. It is essential to consider the underlying processes and base predictive models on the proper physics, especially under conditions of non-stationarity where the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future and system trajectories can be unexpected. These challenges were forefront in the recently completed Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), which assembled and focused a wide range of multi-disciplinary expertise to improve the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of change over the cold interior of western Canada. CCRN advanced knowledge of fundamental cold-region ecological and hydrological processes through observation and experimentation across a network of highly instrumented research basins and other sites. Significant efforts were made to improve the functionality and process representation, based on this improved understanding, within the fine-scale Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform and the large-scale Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire (MEC) – Surface and Hydrology (MESH) model. These models were, and continue to be, applied under past and projected future climates and under current and expected future land and vegetation cover configurations to diagnose historical change and predict possible future hydrological responses. This second of two articles synthesizes the nature and understanding of cold-region processes and Earth system responses to future climate, as advanced by CCRN. These include changing precipitation and moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere; altered snow regimes, changing balance of snowfall and rainfall, and glacier loss; vegetation responses to climate and the loss of ecosystem resilience to wildfire and disturbance; thawing permafrost and its influence on landscapes and hydrology; groundwater storage and cycling and its connections to surface water; and stream and river discharge as influenced by the various drivers of hydrological change. Collective insights, expert elicitation, and model application are used to provide a synthesis of this change over the CCRN region for the late 21st century.</abstract>
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%0 Journal Article
%T Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology
%A DeBeer, C. M.
%A Wheater, H. S.
%A Pomeroy, John W.
%A Barr, Alan
%A Baltzer, Jennifer L.
%A Johnstone, Jill F.
%A Turetsky, M. R.
%A Stewart, Ronald E.
%A Hayashi, Masaki
%A Kamp, Garth van der
%A Marshall, Shawn J.
%A Campbell, Elizabeth M.
%A Marsh, Philip
%A Carey, Sean K.
%A Quinton, W. L.
%A Li, Yanping
%A Razavi, Saman
%A Berg, Aaron
%A McDonnell, Jeffrey J.
%A Spence, Christopher
%A Helgason, Warren
%A Ireson, Andrew
%A Black, T. Andrew
%A Elshamy, Mohamed
%A Yassin, Fuad
%A Davison, Bruce
%A Howard, Allan
%A Thériault, Julie M.
%A Shook, Kevin
%A Demuth, Michael N.
%A Pietroniro, Alain
%J Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 25, Issue 4
%D 2021
%V 25
%N 4
%I Copernicus GmbH
%F DeBeer-2021-Summary
%X Abstract. The interior of western Canada, like many similar cold mid- to high-latitude regions worldwide, is undergoing extensive and rapid climate and environmental change, which may accelerate in the coming decades. Understanding and predicting changes in coupled climate–land–hydrological systems are crucial to society yet limited by lack of understanding of changes in cold-region process responses and interactions, along with their representation in most current-generation land-surface and hydrological models. It is essential to consider the underlying processes and base predictive models on the proper physics, especially under conditions of non-stationarity where the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future and system trajectories can be unexpected. These challenges were forefront in the recently completed Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), which assembled and focused a wide range of multi-disciplinary expertise to improve the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of change over the cold interior of western Canada. CCRN advanced knowledge of fundamental cold-region ecological and hydrological processes through observation and experimentation across a network of highly instrumented research basins and other sites. Significant efforts were made to improve the functionality and process representation, based on this improved understanding, within the fine-scale Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform and the large-scale Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire (MEC) – Surface and Hydrology (MESH) model. These models were, and continue to be, applied under past and projected future climates and under current and expected future land and vegetation cover configurations to diagnose historical change and predict possible future hydrological responses. This second of two articles synthesizes the nature and understanding of cold-region processes and Earth system responses to future climate, as advanced by CCRN. These include changing precipitation and moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere; altered snow regimes, changing balance of snowfall and rainfall, and glacier loss; vegetation responses to climate and the loss of ecosystem resilience to wildfire and disturbance; thawing permafrost and its influence on landscapes and hydrology; groundwater storage and cycling and its connections to surface water; and stream and river discharge as influenced by the various drivers of hydrological change. Collective insights, expert elicitation, and model application are used to provide a synthesis of this change over the CCRN region for the late 21st century.
%R 10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021
%U https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G21-181001
%U https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021
%P 1849-1882
Markdown (Informal)
[Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology](https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G21-181001) (DeBeer et al., GWF 2021)
ACL
- C. M. DeBeer, H. S. Wheater, John W. Pomeroy, Alan Barr, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Jill F. Johnstone, M. R. Turetsky, Ronald E. Stewart, Masaki Hayashi, Garth van der Kamp, Shawn J. Marshall, Elizabeth M. Campbell, Philip Marsh, Sean K. Carey, W. L. Quinton, Yanping Li, Saman Razavi, Aaron Berg, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, et al.. 2021. Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 25, Issue 4, 25(4):1849–1882.
