2021
DOI
bib
abs
Observed snow depth trends in the European Alps: 1971 to 2019
Michael Matiu,
Alice Crespi,
Giacomo Bertoldi,
Carlo Maria Carmagnola,
Christoph Marty,
Samuel Morin,
Wolfgang Schöner,
Daniele Cat Berro,
Gabriele Chiogna,
Ludovica De Gregorio,
Sven Kotlarski,
Bruno Majone,
Gernot Resch,
Silvia Terzago,
Mauro Valt,
Walter Beozzo,
Paola Cianfarra,
Isabelle Gouttevin,
Giorgia Marcolini,
Claudia Notarnicola,
Marcello Petitta,
Simon C. Scherrer,
Ulrich Strasser,
Michael Winkler,
Marc Zebisch,
Andrea Cicogna,
R. Cremonini,
Andrea Debernardi,
Mattia Faletto,
Mauro Gaddo,
Lorenzo Giovannini,
Luca Mercalli,
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux,
Andrea Sušnik,
Alberto Trenti,
Stefano Urbani,
Viktor Weilguni
The Cryosphere, Volume 15, Issue 3
Abstract. The European Alps stretch over a range of climate zones which affect the spatial distribution of snow. Previous analyses of station observations of snow were confined to regional analyses. Here, we present an Alpine-wide analysis of snow depth from six Alpine countries – Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia, and Switzerland – including altogether more than 2000 stations of which more than 800 were used for the trend assessment. Using a principal component analysis and k-means clustering, we identified five main modes of variability and five regions which match the climatic forcing zones: north and high Alpine, north-east, north-west, south-east, and south and high Alpine. Linear trends of monthly mean snow depth between 1971 and 2019 showed decreases in snow depth for most stations from November to May. The average trend among all stations for seasonal (November to May) mean snow depth was −8.4 % per decade, for seasonal maximum snow depth −5.6 % per decade, and for seasonal snow cover duration −5.6 % per decade. Stronger and more significant trends were observed for periods and elevations where the transition from snow to snow-free occurs, which is consistent with an enhanced albedo feedback. Additionally, regional trends differed substantially at the same elevation, which challenges the notion of generalizing results from one region to another or to the whole Alps. This study presents an analysis of station snow depth series with the most comprehensive spatial coverage in the European Alps to date.
2020
DOI
bib
abs
Observed snow depth trends in the European Alps 1971 to 2019
Michael Matiu,
Alice Crespi,
Giacomo Bertoldi,
Carlo Maria Carmagnola,
Christoph Marty,
Samuel Morin,
Wolfgang Schöner,
Daniele Cat Berro,
Gabriele Chiogna,
Ludovica De Gregorio,
Sven Kotlarski,
Bruno Majone,
Gernot Resch,
Silvia Terzago,
Mauro Valt,
Walter Beozzo,
Paola Cianfarra,
Isabelle Gouttevin,
Giorgia Marcolini,
Claudia Notarnicola,
Marcello Petitta,
Simon C. Scherrer,
Ulrich Strasser,
Michael Winkler,
Marc Zebisch,
Andrea Cicogna,
R. Cremonini,
Andrea Debernardi,
Mattia Faletto,
Mauro Gaddo,
Lorenzo Giovannini,
Luca Mercalli,
Jean‐Michel Soubeyroux,
Andrea Sušnik,
Alberto Trenti,
Stefano Urbani,
Viktor Weilguni
Abstract. The European Alps stretch over a range of climate zones, which affect the spatial distribution of snow. Previous analyses of station observations of snow were confined to regional analyses. Here, we present an Alpine wide analysis of snow depth from six Alpine countries: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia, and Switzerland; including altogether more than 2000 stations. Using a principal component analysis and k-means clustering, we identified five main modes of variability and five regions, which match the climatic forcing zones: north and high Alpine, northeast, northwest, southeast and southwest. Linear trends of mean monthly snow depth between 1971 to 2019 showed decreases in snow depth for 87 % of the stations. December to February trends were on average −1.1 cm decade−1 (min, max: −10.8, 4.4; elevation range 0–1000 m), −2.5 (−25.1, 4.4; 1000–2000 m) and −0.1 (−23.3, 9.9; 2000–3000 m), with stronger trends in March to May: −0.6 (−10.9, 1.0; 0–1000 m), −4.6 (−28.1, 4.1; 1000–2000 m) and −7.6 (−28.3, 10.5; 2000–3000 m). However, regional trends differed substantially, which challenges the notion of generalizing results from one Alpine region to another or to the whole Alps. This study presents an analysis of station snow depth series with the most comprehensive spatial coverage in the European Alps to date.
Abstract. Glacier mass balance (MB) data are crucial to understanding and quantifying the regional effects of climate on glaciers and the high-mountain water cycle, yet observations cover only a small fraction of glaciers in the world. We present a dataset of annual glacier-wide mass balance of all the glaciers in the French Alps for the 1967–2015 period. This dataset has been reconstructed using deep learning (i.e. a deep artificial neural network) based on direct MB observations and remote-sensing annual estimates, meteorological reanalyses and topographical data from glacier inventories. The method's validity was assessed previously through an extensive cross-validation against a dataset of 32 glaciers, with an estimated average error (RMSE) of 0.55 mw.e.a-1, an explained variance (r2) of 75 % and an average bias of −0.021 mw.e.a-1. We estimate an average regional area-weighted glacier-wide MB of −0.69±0.21 (1σ) mw.e.a-1 for the 1967–2015 period with negative mass balances in the 1970s (−0.44 mw.e.a-1), moderately negative in the 1980s (−0.16 mw.e.a-1) and an increasing negative trend from the 1990s onwards, up to −1.26 mw.e.a-1 in the 2010s. Following a topographical and regional analysis, we estimate that the massifs with the highest mass losses for the 1967–2015 period are the Chablais (−0.93 mw.e.a-1), Champsaur (−0.86 mw.e.a-1), and Haute-Maurienne and Ubaye ranges (−0.84 mw.e.a-1 each), and the ones presenting the lowest mass losses are the Mont-Blanc (−0.68 mw.e.a-1), Oisans and Haute-Tarentaise ranges (−0.75 mw.e.a-1 each). This dataset – available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3925378 (Bolibar et al., 2020a) – provides relevant and timely data for studies in the fields of glaciology, hydrology and ecology in the French Alps in need of regional or glacier-specific annual net glacier mass changes in glacierized catchments.
Abstract. We present a novel approach to simulate and reconstruct annual glacier-wide surface mass balance (SMB) series based on a deep artificial neural network (ANN; i.e. deep learning). This method has been included as the SMB component of an open-source regional glacier evolution model. While most glacier models tend to incorporate more and more physical processes, here we take an alternative approach by creating a parameterized model based on data science. Annual glacier-wide SMBs can be simulated from topo-climatic predictors using either deep learning or Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator; regularized multilinear regression), whereas the glacier geometry is updated using a glacier-specific parameterization. We compare and cross-validate our nonlinear deep learning SMB model against other standard linear statistical methods on a dataset of 32 French Alpine glaciers. Deep learning is found to outperform linear methods, with improved explained variance (up to +64 % in space and +108 % in time) and accuracy (up to +47 % in space and +58 % in time), resulting in an estimated r2 of 0.77 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.51 m w.e. Substantial nonlinear structures are captured by deep learning, with around 35 % of nonlinear behaviour in the temporal dimension. For the glacier geometry evolution, the main uncertainties come from the ice thickness data used to initialize the model. These results should encourage the use of deep learning in glacier modelling as a powerful nonlinear tool, capable of capturing the nonlinearities of the climate and glacier systems, that can serve to reconstruct or simulate SMB time series for individual glaciers in a whole region for past and future climates.