Abstract. This study evaluated the effects of climate perturbations on snowmelt, soil moisture and streamflow generation in small Canadian Prairie basins using a modeling approach based on classification of basin biophysical and hydraulic parameters. Seven basin classes that encompass the entirety of the Prairie ecozone in Canada were determined by cluster analysis of biophysical characteristics. Individual semi-distributed virtual basin (VB) models representing these classes were parameterized in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) platform which includes modules for snowmelt and sublimation, soil freezing and thawing, actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge and depressional storage dynamics including fill and spill runoff generation and variable connected areas. Precipitation (P) and temperature (T) perturbation scenarios covering the range of climate model predictions for the 21st century were used to evaluate climate sensitivity of hydrological processes in individual land cover and basin types across the Prairie ecozone. Results indicated that snow accumulation in wetlands had a greater sensitivity to P and T than that in croplands and grasslands in all the basin types. Wetland soil moisture was also more sensitive to T than the cropland and grassland soil moisture. Jointly influenced by land cover distribution and local climate, basin-average snow accumulation was more sensitive to T in the drier and grassland-characterized basins than in the wetter basins dominated by cropland, whilst basin-average soil moisture was most sensitive to T and P perturbations in basins typified by pothole depressions and broad river valleys. Annual streamflow had the greatest sensitivities to T and P in the dry and poorly connected Interior Grassland basins but the smallest in the wet and well-connected Southern Manitoba basins. The ability of P to compensate for warming induced reductions in snow accumulation and streamflow was much higher in the wetter and cropland-dominated basins than in the drier and grassland-characterized basins, whilst decreases in cropland soil moisture induced by the maximum expected warming of 6 °C could be fully offset by P increase of 11 % in all the basins. These results can be used to 1) identify locations which had the largest hydrological sensitivities to changing climate; and 2) diagnose underlying processes responsible for hydrological responses to expected climate change. Variations of hydrological sensitivity in land cover and basin types suggest that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the Prairie ecozone.

Abstract Operational flood forecasting in Canada is a provincial responsibility that is carried out by several entities across the country. However, the increasing costs and impacts of floods require better and nationally coordinated flood prediction systems. A more coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada can enable implementing advanced prediction capabilities across the different entities with responsibility for flood forecasting. Recently, the Canadian meteorological and hydrological services were tasked to develop a national flow guidance system. Alongside this initiative, the Global Water Futures program has been advancing cold regions process understanding, hydrological modeling, and forecasting. A community of practice was established for industry, academia, and decision‐makers to share viewpoints on hydrological challenges. Taken together, these initiatives are paving the way towards a national flood forecasting framework. In this article, forecasting challenges are identified (with a focus on cold regions), and recommendations are made to promote the creation of this framework. These include the need for cooperation, well‐defined governance, and better knowledge mobilization. Opportunities and challenges posed by the increasing data availability globally are also highlighted. Advances in each of these areas are positioning Canada as a major contributor to the international operational flood forecasting landscape. This article highlights a route towards the deployment of capacities across large geographical domains.

Wildfire occurrence and severity is predicted to increase in the upcoming decades with severe negative impacts on human societies. The impacts of upwind wildfire activity on glacier melt, a critical source of freshwater for downstream environments, were investigated through analysis of field and remote sensing observations and modeling experiments for the 2015–2020 melt seasons at the well-instrumented Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rockies. Upwind wildfire activity influenced surface glacier melt through both a decrease in the surface albedo from deposition of soot on the glacier and through the impact of smoke on atmospheric conditions above the glacier. Athabasca Glacier on-ice weather station observations show days with dense smoke were warmer than clear, non-smoky days, and sustained a reduction in surface shortwave irradiance of 103 W m−2 during peak shortwave irradiance and an increase in longwave irradiance of 10 W m−2, producing an average 15 W m−2 decrease in net radiation. Albedo observed on-ice gradually decreased after the wildfires started, from a summer average of 0.29 in 2015 before the wildfires to as low as 0.16 in 2018 after extensive wildfires and remained low for two more melt seasons without substantial upwind wildfires. Reduced all-wave irradiance partly compensated for the increase in melt due to lowered albedo in those seasons when smoke was detected above Athabasca Glacier. In melt seasons without smoke, the suppressed albedo increased melt by slightly more than 10% compared to the simulations without fire-impacted albedo, increasing melt by 0.42 m. w.e. in 2019 and 0.37 m. w.e. in 2020.

Wildfire occurrence and severity is predicted to increase in the upcoming decades with severe negative impacts on human societies. The impacts of upwind wildfire activity on glacier melt, a critical source of freshwater for downstream environments, were investigated through analysis of field and remote sensing observations and modeling experiments for the 2015–2020 melt seasons at the well-instrumented Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rockies. Upwind wildfire activity influenced surface glacier melt through both a decrease in the surface albedo from deposition of soot on the glacier and through the impact of smoke on atmospheric conditions above the glacier. Athabasca Glacier on-ice weather station observations show days with dense smoke were warmer than clear, non-smoky days, and sustained a reduction in surface shortwave irradiance of 103 W m−2 during peak shortwave irradiance and an increase in longwave irradiance of 10 W m−2, producing an average 15 W m−2 decrease in net radiation. Albedo observed on-ice gradually decreased after the wildfires started, from a summer average of 0.29 in 2015 before the wildfires to as low as 0.16 in 2018 after extensive wildfires and remained low for two more melt seasons without substantial upwind wildfires. Reduced all-wave irradiance partly compensated for the increase in melt due to lowered albedo in those seasons when smoke was detected above Athabasca Glacier. In melt seasons without smoke, the suppressed albedo increased melt by slightly more than 10% compared to the simulations without fire-impacted albedo, increasing melt by 0.42 m. w.e. in 2019 and 0.37 m. w.e. in 2020.

Mountain glacierized headwaters are currently witnessing a transient shift in their hydrological and glaciological systems in response to rapid climate change. To characterize these changes, a robust understanding of the hydrological processes operating in the basin and their interactions is needed. Such an investigation was undertaken in the Peyto Glacier Research Basin, Canadian Rockies over 32 years (1988–2020). A distributed, physically based, uncalibrated glacier hydrology model was developed using the modular, object-oriented Cold Region Hydrological Modelling Platform to simulate both on and off-glacier high mountain processes and streamflow generation. The hydrological processes that generate streamflow from this alpine basin are characterized by substantial inter-annual variability over the 32 years. Snowmelt runoff always provided the largest fraction of annual streamflow (44% to 89%), with smaller fractional contributions occurring in higher streamflow years. Ice melt runoff provided 10% to 45% of annual streamflow volume, with higher fractions associated with higher flow years. Both rainfall and firn melt runoff contributed less than 13% of annual streamflow. Years with high streamflow were on average 1.43°C warmer than low streamflow years, and higher streamflow years had lower seasonal snow accumulation, earlier snowmelt and higher summer rainfall than years with lower streamflow. Greater ice exposure in warmer, low snowfall (high rainfall) years led to greater streamflow generation. The understanding gained here provides insight into how future climate and increased meteorological variability may impact glacier meltwater contributions to streamflow and downstream water availability as alpine glaciers continue to retreat.

Crop–water interactions define productivity in water-limited dryland agricultural production systems in cold regions. Despite the agronomic and economic importance of this relationship there are challenges in quantifying crop water use efficiency (WUE). To understand dynamics driving crop water use and agricultural productivity in these environments, observations of evapotranspiration, carbon assimilation, meteorology, and crop growth were collected over 17 site-years at 5 agricultural sites in the sub-humid continental Canadian Prairies. Eddy-covariance (EC) derived water and carbon fluxes provided a means to comprehensively assess the WUE of current agricultural practices by both physiological (WUEP: g C kg−1 H2O) and agronomic (WUEY): kg yield mm H2O−1 hectare−1) approaches. Mean field scale WUEY for grain yields were 10.4 (Barley), 10.2 (Wheat), 6.0 (Canola), 19.3 (Peas), 12.2 (Lentils) and for silage/forage crops were 23.0 (Barley), 11.9 (Forage), and 20.7 (Corn) (kg yield mm H2O−1 hectare−1). An assessment of environmental factors and their covariance with WUE, utilising a conditional inference tree approach, demonstrated that WUE decreased when crops were under greater evapotranspiration demands. EC-based areal WUE approaches, measuring fluxes over footprints of hundreds of square metres, were compared with more commonly reported point-scale water balance residual approaches (WUEWB) and demonstrated consistently smaller magnitudes. WUEWB was greater than EC-estimated WUEY by an average of 52% and 65% for grain and forage/silage crops respectively. WUEWB also had greater variability than EC estimates, with standard deviations 188% and 128% greater than Barley and Wheat crops, respectively. This comparison highlights the scale dependency of WUE estimation methods, demonstrates considerable uncertainty in point scale water balance approaches due to spatial variability in crop–water interactions, and shows how this variability can be accounted for by EC observations. This improves the understanding of WUE and quantifies its variability in cold continental water-limited climates and provides a means to diagnose improved agricultural water management.

Abstract. Vegetation has a tremendous influence on snow processes and snowpack dynamics, yet remote sensing techniques to resolve the spatial variability of sub-canopy snow depth are not always available and are difficult from space-based platforms. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have had recent widespread application to capture high-resolution information on snow processes and are herein applied to the sub-canopy snow depth challenge. Previous demonstrations of snow depth mapping with UAV structure from motion (SfM) and airborne lidar have focussed on non-vegetated surfaces or reported large errors in the presence of vegetation. In contrast, UAV-lidar systems have high-density point clouds and measure returns from a wide range of scan angles, increasing the likelihood of successfully sensing the sub-canopy snow depth. The effectiveness of UAV lidar and UAV SfM in mapping snow depth in both open and forested terrain was tested in a 2019 field campaign at the Canadian Rockies Hydrological Observatory, Alberta, and at Canadian prairie sites near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. Only UAV lidar could successfully measure the sub-canopy snow surface with reliable sub-canopy point coverage and consistent error metrics (root mean square error (RMSE) <0.17 m and bias −0.03 to −0.13 m). Relative to UAV lidar, UAV SfM did not consistently sense the sub-canopy snow surface, the interpolation needed to account for point cloud gaps introduced interpolation artefacts, and error metrics demonstrated relatively large variability (RMSE<0.33 m and bias 0.08 to −0.14 m). With the demonstration of sub-canopy snow depth mapping capabilities, a number of early applications are presented to showcase the ability of UAV lidar to effectively quantify the many multiscale snow processes defining snowpack dynamics in mountain and prairie environments.

Abstract. Vegetation has a tremendous influence on snow processes and snowpack dynamics, yet remote sensing techniques to resolve the spatial variability of sub-canopy snow depth are not always available and are difficult from space-based platforms. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have had recent widespread application to capture high-resolution information on snow processes and are herein applied to the sub-canopy snow depth challenge. Previous demonstrations of snow depth mapping with UAV structure from motion (SfM) and airborne lidar have focussed on non-vegetated surfaces or reported large errors in the presence of vegetation. In contrast, UAV-lidar systems have high-density point clouds and measure returns from a wide range of scan angles, increasing the likelihood of successfully sensing the sub-canopy snow depth. The effectiveness of UAV lidar and UAV SfM in mapping snow depth in both open and forested terrain was tested in a 2019 field campaign at the Canadian Rockies Hydrological Observatory, Alberta, and at Canadian prairie sites near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. Only UAV lidar could successfully measure the sub-canopy snow surface with reliable sub-canopy point coverage and consistent error metrics (root mean square error (RMSE) <0.17 m and bias −0.03 to −0.13 m). Relative to UAV lidar, UAV SfM did not consistently sense the sub-canopy snow surface, the interpolation needed to account for point cloud gaps introduced interpolation artefacts, and error metrics demonstrated relatively large variability (RMSE<0.33 m and bias 0.08 to −0.14 m). With the demonstration of sub-canopy snow depth mapping capabilities, a number of early applications are presented to showcase the ability of UAV lidar to effectively quantify the many multiscale snow processes defining snowpack dynamics in mountain and prairie environments.

Abstract Space-based, global-extent digital elevation models (DEMs) are key inputs to many Earth sciences applications. However, many of these applications require the use of a ‘bare-Earth’ DEM versus a digital surface model (DSM), the latter of which may include systematic positive biases due to tree canopies in forested areas. Critical topographic features may be obscured by these biases. Vegetation-free datasets have been created by using statistical relationships and machine learning to train on local-scale datasets (e.g., lidar) to de-bias the global-extent datasets. Recent advances in satellite platforms coupled with increased availability of computational resources and lidar reference products has allowed for a new generation of vegetation- and urban-canopy removals. One of these is the Forest And Buildings removed Copernicus DEM (FABDEM), based on the most recent and most accurate global DSM Copernicus-30. Among the more challenging landscapes to quantify surface elevations are densely forested mountain catchments, where even airborne lidar applications struggle to capture surface returns. The increasing affordability and availability of UAV-based lidar platforms have resulted in new capacity to fly modest spatial extents with unrivalled point densities. These data allow an unprecedented ability to validate global sub-canopy DEMs against representative UAV-based lidar data. In this work, the FABDEM is validated against up-scaled lidar data in a steep and forested mountain catchment considering elevation, slope, and Terrain Position Index (TPI) metrics. Comparisons of FABDEM with SRTM, MERIT, and the Copernicus-30 dataset are made. It was found that the FABDEM had a 24% reduction in elevation RMSE and a 135% reduction in bias compared to the Copernicus-30 dataset. Overall, the FABDEM provides a clear improvement over existing deforested DEM products in complex mountain topography such as the MERIT DEM. This study supports the use of FABDEM in forested mountain catchments as the current best-in-class data product.

Estimates of near-surface wind speed and direction are key meteorological components for predicting many surface hydrometeorological processes that influence critical aspects of hydrological and biological systems. However, observations of near-surface wind are typically spatially sparse. The use of these sparse wind fields to force distributed models, such as hydrological models, is greatly complicated in complex terrain, such as mountain headwaters basins. In these regions, wind flows are heavily impacted by overlapping influences of terrain at different scales. This can have a great impact on calculations of evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and blowing snow transport and sublimation. The use of high-resolution atmospheric models allows for numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs to be dynamically downscaled. However, the computation burden for large spatial extents and long periods of time often precludes their use. Here, a wind-library approach is presented to aid in downscaling NWP outputs and terrain-correcting spatially interpolated observations. This approach preserves important spatial characteristics of the flow field at a fraction of the computational costs of even the simplest high-resolution atmospheric models. This approach improves on previous implementations by: scaling to large spatial extents O(1M km2); approximating lee-side effects; and fully automating the creation of the wind library. Overall, this approach was shown to have a third quartile RMSE of 1.8 and a third quartile RMSE of 58.2° versus a standalone diagnostic windflow model. The wind velocity estimates versus observations were better than existing empirical terrain-based estimates and computational savings were approximately 100-fold versus the diagnostic model.

Abstract. Systematic tile drainage is used extensively in agricultural lands to remove excess water and improve crop growth; however, tiles can also transfer nutrients from farmlands to downstream surface water bodies, leading to water quality problems. There is a need to simulate the hydrological behaviour of tile drains to understand the impacts of climate or land management change on agricultural runoff. The Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) is a physically based, modular modelling system that enables the creation of comprehensive models appropriate for cold regions by including a full suite of winter, spring, and summer season processes and coupling these together via mass and energy balances. A new tile drainage module was developed for CRHM to account for this process in tile-drained landscapes that are increasingly common in cultivated basins of the Great Lakes and northern Prairies regions of North America. A robust multi-variable, multi-criteria model performance evaluation strategy was deployed to examine the ability of the module with CRHM to capture tile discharge under both winter and summer conditions. Results showed that soil moisture is largely regulated by tile flow and lateral flow from adjacent fields. The explicit representation of capillary rise for moisture interactions between the rooting zone and groundwater greatly improved model simulations, demonstrating its significance in the hydrology of tile drains in loam soils. Water level patterns revealed a bimodal behaviour that depended on the positioning of the capillary fringe relative to the tile. A novel aspect of this module is the use of field capacity and its corresponding pressure head to provide an estimate of drainable water and thickness of the capillary fringe, rather than a detailed soil retention curve that may not always be available. Understanding the bimodal nature of soil water levels provides better insight into the significance of dynamic water exchange between soil layers below drains to improve tile drainage representation in models.

Abstract. This study evaluated the effects of climate perturbations on snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation in small Canadian Prairies basins using a modelling approach based on classification of basin biophysical characteristics. Seven basin classes that encompass the entirety of the Prairies Ecozone in Canada were determined by cluster analysis of these characteristics. Individual semi-distributed virtual basin (VB) models representing these classes were parameterized in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) platform, which includes modules for snowmelt and sublimation, soil freezing and thawing, actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge, and depressional storage dynamics including fill and spill runoff generation and variable connected areas. Precipitation (P) and temperature (T) perturbation scenarios covering the range of climate model predictions for the 21st century were used to evaluate climate sensitivity of hydrological processes in individual land cover and basin types across the Prairies Ecozone. Results indicated that snow accumulation in wetlands had a greater sensitivity to P and T than that in croplands and grasslands in all basin types. Wetland soil moisture was also more sensitive to T than the cropland and grassland soil moisture. Jointly influenced by land cover distribution and local climate, basin-average snow accumulation was more sensitive to T in the drier and grassland-characterized basins than in the wetter basins dominated by cropland, whilst basin-average soil moisture was most sensitive to T and P perturbations in basins typified by pothole depressions and broad river valleys. Annual streamflow had the greatest sensitivities to T and P in the dry and poorly connected Interior Grasslands (See Fig. 1) basins but the smallest in the wet and well-connected Southern Manitoba basins. The ability of P to compensate for warming-induced reductions in snow accumulation and streamflow was much higher in the wetter and cropland-dominated basins than in the drier and grassland-characterized basins, whilst decreases in cropland soil moisture induced by the maximum expected warming of 6 ∘C could be fully offset by a P increase of 11 % in all basins. These results can be used to (1) identify locations which had the largest hydrological sensitivities to changing climate and (2) diagnose underlying processes responsible for hydrological responses to expected climate change. Variations of hydrological sensitivity in land cover and basin types suggest that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the Prairies Ecozone.

Cold regions provide water resources for half the global population yet face rapid change. Their hydrology is dominated by snow, ice and frozen soils, and climate warming is having profound effects. Hydrological models have a key role in predicting changing water resources but are challenged in cold regions. Ground-based data to quantify meteorological forcing and constrain model parameterization are limited, while hydrological processes are complex, often controlled by phase change energetics. River flows are impacted by poorly quantified human activities. This paper discusses the scientific and technical challenges of the large-scale modelling of cold region systems and reports recent modelling developments, focussing on MESH, the Canadian community hydrological land surface scheme. New cold region process representations include improved blowing snow transport and sublimation, lateral land-surface flow, prairie pothole pond storage dynamics, frozen ground infiltration and thermodynamics, and improved glacier modelling. New algorithms to represent water management include multistage reservoir operation. Parameterization has been supported by field observations and remotely sensed data; new methods for parameter identification have been used to evaluate model uncertainty and support regionalization. Additionally, MESH has been linked to broader decision-support frameworks, including river ice simulation and hydrological forecasting. The paper also reports various applications to the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River basins in western Canada (0.4 and 1.8 million km2). These basins arise in glaciated mountain headwaters, are partly underlain by permafrost, and include remote and incompletely understood forested, wetland, agricultural and tundra ecoregions. These illustrate the current capabilities and limitations of cold region modelling, and the extraordinary challenges to prediction, including the need to overcoming biases in forcing data sets, which can have disproportionate effects on the simulated hydrology.

Abstract. Significant challenges from changes in climate and land use face sustainable water use in the Canadian Prairies ecozone. The region has experienced significant warming since the mid-20th century, and continued warming of an additional 2 ∘C by 2050 is expected. This paper aims to enhance understanding of climate controls on Prairie basin hydrology through numerical model experiments. It approaches this by developing a basin-classification-based virtual modelling framework for a portion of the Prairie region and applying the modelling framework to investigate the hydrological sensitivity of one Prairie basin class (High Elevation Grasslands) to changes in climate. High Elevation Grasslands dominate much of central and southern Alberta and parts of south-western Saskatchewan, with outliers in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The experiments revealed that High Elevation Grassland snowpacks are highly sensitive to changes in climate but that this varies geographically. Spring maximum snow water equivalent in grasslands decreases 8 % ∘C−1 of warming. Climate scenario simulations indicated that a 2 ∘C increase in temperature requires at least an increase of 20 % in mean annual precipitation for there to be enough additional snowfall to compensate for enhanced melt losses. The sensitivity in runoff is less linear and varies substantially across the study domain: simulations using 6 ∘C of warming, and a 30 % increase in mean annual precipitation yields simulated decreases in annual runoff of 40 % in climates of the western Prairie but 55 % increases in climates of eastern portions. These results can be used to identify those areas of the region that are most sensitive to climate change and highlight focus areas for monitoring and adaptation. The results also demonstrate how a basin classification-based virtual modelling framework can be applied to evaluate regional-scale impacts of climate change with relatively high spatial resolution in a robust, effective and efficient manner.

Abstract The Canadian Rockies are a triple-continental divide, whose high mountains are drained by major snow-fed and rain-fed rivers flowing to the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans. The objective of the April–June 2019 Storms and Precipitation Across the continental Divide Experiment (SPADE) was to determine the atmospheric processes producing precipitation on the eastern and western sides of the Canadian Rockies during springtime, a period when upslope events of variable phase dominate precipitation on the eastern slopes. To do so, three observing sites across the divide were instrumented with advanced meteorological sensors. During the 13 observed events, the western side recorded only 25% of the eastern side’s precipitation accumulation, rainfall occurred rather than snowfall, and skies were mainly clear. Moisture sources and amounts varied markedly between events. An atmospheric river landfall in California led to moisture flowing persistently northward and producing the longest duration of precipitation on both sides of the divide. Moisture from the continental interior always produced precipitation on the eastern side but only in specific conditions on the western side. Mainly slow-falling ice crystals, sometimes rimed, formed at higher elevations on the eastern side (>3 km MSL), were lifted, and subsequently drifted westward over the divide during nonconvective storms to produce rain at the surface on the western side. Overall, precipitation generally crossed the divide in the Canadian Rockies during specific spring-storm atmospheric conditions although amounts at the surface varied with elevation, condensate type, and local and large-scale flow fields.

• The precipitation increase can offset the impact of warming on mountain snow hydrology. • The offsetting role of precipitation is effective at the high elevations and high latitudes. • The projected precipitation elasticity of annual runoff increases as latitude decreases. • The projected precipitation elasticity of peak snowpack increases as latitude increases. • Elasticities indicated that runoff changes are primarily attributed to precipitation change. Whether or not the impact of warming on mountain snow and runoff can be offset by precipitation increases has not been well examined, but it is crucially important for future downstream water supply. Using the physically based Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling Platform (CRHM), elasticity (percent change in runoff divided by change in a climate forcing) and the sensitivity of snow regimes to perturbations were investigated in three well-instrumented mountain research basins spanning the northern North American Cordillera. Hourly meteorological observations were perturbed using air temperature and precipitation changes and were then used to force hydrological models for each basin. In all three basins, lower temperature sensitivities of annual runoff volume ( ≤ 6% °C −1 ) and higher sensitivities of peak snowpack (−17% °C −1 ) showed that annual runoff was far less sensitive to temperature than the snow regime. Higher and lower precipitation elasticities of annual runoff (1.5 – 2.1) and peak snowpack (0.7 – 1.1) indicated that the runoff change is primarily attributed to precipitation change and, secondarily, to warming. A low discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation elasticities showed that the model results are reliable, and one can conduct sensitivity analysis. The air temperature elasticities, however, must be interpreted with care as the projected warmings range beyond the observed temperatures and, hence, it is not possible to test their reliability. Simulations using multiple elevations showed that the timing of peak snowpack was most sensitive to temperature. For the range of warming expected from North American climate model simulations, the impacts of warming on annual runoff, but not on peak snowpack, can be offset by the size of precipitation increases projected for the near-future period 2041–2070. To offset the impact of 2 °C warming on annual runoff, precipitation would need to increase by less than 5% in all three basins. To offset the impact of 2 °C warming on peak snowpack, however, precipitation would need to increase by 12% in Wolf Creek in Yukon Territory, 18% in Marmot Creek in the Canadian Rockies, and an amount greater than the maximum projected at Reynolds Mountain in Idaho. The role of increased precipitation as a compensator for the impact of warming on snowpack is more effective at the highest elevations and higher latitudes. Increased precipitation leads to resilient and strongly coupled snow and runoff regimes, contrasting sharply with the sensitive and weakly coupled regimes at low elevations and in temperate climate zones.

• A novel physically based glacier hydrological model has been developed in CRHM. • The model considers processes such as blowing snow and sublimation, avalanches, firnification, glacier mass balance and energy-budget of snow/ice. • The model was driven with both in-situ and reanalysis data and evaluated with respect to albedo, mass balance, and runoff. • The hydrology of two partially glacierized catchments was simulated without any calibration of streamflow parameters. • The long term increases in discharge are due to increased glacier ice melt. A comprehensive glacier hydrology model was developed within the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to include modules representing wind flow over complex terrain, blowing snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, snow redistribution by avalanches, solar irradiance to sloping surfaces, surface sublimation, glacier mass balance and runoff, meltwater and streamflow routing. The physically based glacier hydrology model created from these modules in CRHM was applied to simulate the hydrology of the instrumented, glacierized and rapidly deglaciating Peyto and Athabasca glacier research basins in the Canadian Rockies without calibration of parameters from streamflow. It was tested against observed albedo, point and aggregated glacier mass balance, and streamflow and found to successfully simulate surface albedo, snow redistribution, snow and glacier accumulation and ablation, mass balance and streamflow discharge, both when driven by in-situ observations and reanalysis forcing data. Long term modelling results indicate that the increases in discharge from the 1960s to the present are due to increased glacier ice melt contributions, despite declining precipitation and snow melt.

• Snow, glaciers, wetlands, frozen ground and permafrost needed in hydrological models. • Water quality export by coupling biochemical transformations to cold regions processes. • Hydrological sensitivity to land use depends on cold regions processes. • Strong cold regions hydrological sensitivity to climate warming. Cold regions involve hydrological processes that are not often addressed appropriately in hydrological models. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was initially developed in 1998 to assemble and explore the hydrological understanding developed from a series of research basins spanning Canada and international cold regions. Hydrological processes and basin response in cold regions are simulated in a flexible, modular, object-oriented, multiphysics platform. The CRHM platform allows for multiple representations of forcing data interpolation and extrapolation, hydrological model spatial and physical process structures, and parameter values. It is well suited for model falsification, algorithm intercomparison and benchmarking, and has been deployed for basin hydrology diagnosis, prediction, land use change and water quality analysis, climate impact analysis and flood forecasting around the world. This paper describes CRHM’s capabilities, and the insights derived by applying the model in concert with process hydrology research and using the combined information and understanding from research basins to predict hydrological variables, diagnose hydrological change and determine the appropriateness of model structure and parameterisations.

Hydrological conditions in cold regions have been shown to be sensitive to climate change. However, a detailed understanding of how regional climate and basin landscape conditions independently influence the current hydrology and its climate sensitivity is currently lacking. This study, therefore, compares the climate sensitivity of the hydrology of two basins with contrasted landscape and meteorological characteristics typical of eastern Canada: a forested boreal climate basin (Montmorency) versus an agricultural hemiboreal climate basin (Acadie). The physically based Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform was used to simulate the current and future hydrological processes. Both basin landscape and regional climate drove differences in hydrological sensitivities to climate change. Projected peak SWE were highly sensitive to warming, particularly for milder baseline climate conditions and moderately influenced by differences in landscape conditions. Landscape conditions mediated a wide range of differing hydrological processes and streamflow responses to climate change. The effective precipitation was more sensitive to warming in the forested basin than in the agricultural one, due to reductions in forest canopy interception losses with warming. Under present climate, precipitation and discharge were found to be more synchronized in the greater relief and slopes of the forested basin, whereas under climate change, they are more synchronized in the agricultural basin due to reduced infiltration and storage capacities. Flow through and over agricultural soils translated the increase in water availability under a warmer and wetter climate into higher peak discharges, whereas the porous forest soils dampened the response of peak discharge to increased available water. These findings help diagnose the mechanisms controlling hydrological response to climate change in cold regions forested and agricultural basins.

Soot deposition from wildfires decreases snow and ice albedo and increases the absorption of shortwave radiation, which advances and accelerates melt. Soot deposition also induces algal growth, which further decreases snow and ice albedo. In recent years, increasingly severe and widespread wildfire activity has occurred in western Canada in association with climate change. In the summers of 2017 and 2018, westerly winds transported smoke from extensive record-breaking wildfires in British Columbia eastward to the Canadian Rockies, where substantial amounts of soot were deposited on high mountain glaciers, snowfields, and icefields. Several studies have addressed the problem of soot deposition on snow and ice, but the spatiotemporal resolution applied has not been compatible with studying mountain icefields that are extensive but contain substantial internal variability and have dynamical albedos. This study evaluates spatial patterns in the albedo decrease and net shortwave radiation (K*) increase caused by soot from intense wildfires in Western Canada deposited on the Columbia Icefield (151 km2), Canadian Rockies, during 2017 and 2018. Twelve Sentinel-2 images were used to generate high spatial resolution albedo retrievals during four summers (2017 to 2020) using a MODIS bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model, which was employed to model the snow and ice reflectance anisotropy. Remote sensing estimates were evaluated using site-measured albedo on the icefield's Athabasca Glacier tongue, resulting in a R2, mean bias, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.68, 0.019, and 0.026, respectively. The biggest inter-annual spatially averaged soot-induced albedo declines were of 0.148 and 0.050 (2018 to 2020) for southeast-facing glaciers and the snow plateau, respectively. The highest inter-annual spatially-averaged soot-induced shortwave radiative forcing was 203 W/m2 for southeast-facing glaciers (2018 to 2020) and 106 W/m2 for the snow plateau (2017 to 2020). These findings indicate that snow albedo responded rapidly to and recovered rapidly from soot deposition. However, ice albedo remained low the year after fire, and this was likely related to a bio-albedo feedback involving microorganisms. Snow and ice K* were highest during low albedo years, especially for south-facing glaciers. These large-scale effects accelerated melt of the Columbia Icefield. The findings highlight the importance of using large-area high spatial resolution albedo estimates to analyze the effect of wildfire soot deposition on snow and ice albedo and K* on icefields, which is not possible using other approaches.

Abstract Debris-covered glaciers are an important component of the mountain cryosphere and influence the hydrological contribution of glacierized basins to downstream rivers. This study examines the potential to make estimates of debris thickness, a critical variable to calculate the sub-debris melt, using ground-based thermal infrared radiometry (TIR) images. Over four days in August 2019, a ground-based, time-lapse TIR digital imaging radiometer recorded sequential thermal imagery of a debris-covered region of Peyto Glacier, Canadian Rockies, in conjunction with 44 manual excavations of debris thickness ranging from 10 to 110 cm, and concurrent meteorological observations. Inferring the correlation between measured debris thickness and TIR surface temperature as a base, the effectiveness of linear and exponential regression models for debris thickness estimation from surface temperature was explored. Optimal model performance ( R 2 of 0.7, RMSE of 10.3 cm) was obtained with a linear model applied to measurements taken on clear nights just before sunrise, but strong model performances were also obtained under complete cloud cover during daytime or nighttime with an exponential model. This work presents insights into the use of surface temperature and TIR observations to estimate debris thickness and gain knowledge of the state of debris-covered glacial ice and its potential hydrological contribution.

Abstract Wildfire occurrence and severity is predicted to increase in the upcoming decades with severe negative impacts on human societies. The impacts of upwind wildfire activity on glacier melt, a critical source of freshwater for downstream environments, were investigated through analysis of field and remote sensing observations and modeling experiments for the 2015–2020 melt seasons at the well‐instrumented Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rockies. Upwind wildfire activity influenced surface glacier melt through both a decrease in the surface albedo from deposition of soot on the glacier and through the impact of smoke on atmospheric conditions above the glacier. Athabasca Glacier on‐ice weather station observations show days with dense smoke were warmer than clear, non‐smoky days, and sustained a reduction in surface shortwave irradiance of 103 W m −2 during peak shortwave irradiance and an increase in longwave irradiance of 10 W m −2 , producing an average 15 W m −2 decrease in net radiation. Albedo observed on‐ice gradually decreased after the wildfires started, from a summer average of 0.29 in 2015 before the wildfires to as low as 0.16 in 2018 after extensive wildfires and remained low for two more melt seasons without substantial upwind wildfires. Reduced all‐wave irradiance partly compensated for the increase in melt due to lowered albedo in those seasons when smoke was detected above Athabasca Glacier. In melt seasons without smoke, the suppressed albedo increased melt by slightly more than 10% compared to the simulations without fire‐impacted albedo, increasing melt by 0.42 m. w.e. in 2019 and 0.37 m. w.e. in 2020.

Abstract Wildfire occurrence and severity is predicted to increase in the upcoming decades with severe negative impacts on human societies. The impacts of upwind wildfire activity on glacier melt, a critical source of freshwater for downstream environments, were investigated through analysis of field and remote sensing observations and modeling experiments for the 2015–2020 melt seasons at the well‐instrumented Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rockies. Upwind wildfire activity influenced surface glacier melt through both a decrease in the surface albedo from deposition of soot on the glacier and through the impact of smoke on atmospheric conditions above the glacier. Athabasca Glacier on‐ice weather station observations show days with dense smoke were warmer than clear, non‐smoky days, and sustained a reduction in surface shortwave irradiance of 103 W m −2 during peak shortwave irradiance and an increase in longwave irradiance of 10 W m −2 , producing an average 15 W m −2 decrease in net radiation. Albedo observed on‐ice gradually decreased after the wildfires started, from a summer average of 0.29 in 2015 before the wildfires to as low as 0.16 in 2018 after extensive wildfires and remained low for two more melt seasons without substantial upwind wildfires. Reduced all‐wave irradiance partly compensated for the increase in melt due to lowered albedo in those seasons when smoke was detected above Athabasca Glacier. In melt seasons without smoke, the suppressed albedo increased melt by slightly more than 10% compared to the simulations without fire‐impacted albedo, increasing melt by 0.42 m. w.e. in 2019 and 0.37 m. w.e. in 2020.

Abstract The Yukon River Basin (YRB) is one of the most important river networks shared between Canada and The United States, and is one of the largest river basins in the subarctic region of North America. The Canadian part of the YRB is characterized by steeply sloped, partly glaciated mountain headwaters that generate considerable runoff during melt of glaciers and seasonal snowcover. Snow redistribution, snowmelt, glacier melt and freezing–thawing soil processes in winter and spring along with summertime rainfall‐runoff and evapotranspiration processes are thus key components of streamflow generation in the basin, making conceptual rainfall‐runoff models unsuitable for this cold region. Due to the remote high latitudes and high altitudes of the basin, there is a paucity of observational data, making heavily calibrated conceptual modeling approaches infeasible. At the request of the Yukon Government, this project developed and operationalized a streamflow forecasting system for the Yukon River and several of its tributary rivers using a distributed land surface modeling approach developed for large‐scale implementation in cold regions. This represents a substantial advance in bringing operational hydrological forecasting to the Canadian subarctic for the first time. This experience will inform future research to operation improvements as Canada develops a nationally coordinated flood forecast system.

Abstract. Mountain snow and ice greatly influence the hydrological cycle of alpine regions by regulating both the quantity of and seasonal variations in water availability downstream. This study considers the combined impacts of climate and glacier changes due to recession on the hydrology and water balance of two high-elevation basins in the Canadian Rockies. A distributed, physically based, uncalibrated glacier hydrology model developed in the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to simulate the glacier mass balance and basin hydrology of the Peyto and Athabasca glacier basins in Alberta, Canada. Bias-corrected reanalysis data were used to drive the model. The model calculates the water balance of glacierized basins, influenced by the surface energy and mass balance, and considers the redistribution of snow by wind and avalanches. It was set up using hydrological response units based on elevation bands, surface slope, and aspect, as well as changing land cover. Aerial photos, satellite images and digital elevation models (DEMs) were assimilated to represent the changing configurations of glacier area and the exposure of ice and firn. Observations of glacier mass balance, snow, and glacier ice surface elevation changes at glacier and alpine tundra meteorological stations and streamflow discharge at the glacier outlets were used to evaluate the model performance. Basin hydrology was simulated over two periods, 1965–1975 and 2008–2018, using the observed glacier configurations for those time periods. Both basins have undergone continuous glacier loss over the last 3 to 5 decades, leading to a 6 %–31 % reduction in glacierized area, a 78 %–109 % increase in ice exposure, and changes to the elevation and slope of the glacier surfaces. Air temperatures are increasing, mainly due to increasing winter maximum and summer minimum daily temperatures. Annual precipitation has increased by less than 11 %, but rainfall ratios have increased by 29 %–44 %. The results show that changes in both climate and glacier configuration have influenced the melt rates and runoff and a shift of peak flows in the Peyto Glacier basin from August to July. Glacier melt contributions increased/decreased from 27 %–61 % to 43 %–59 % of the annual discharges. Recent discharges were 3 %–19 % higher than in the 1960s and 1970s. The results suggest that increased exposure of glacier ice and lower surface elevation due to glacier thinning were less influential than climate warming in increasing streamflow. Streamflow from these glaciers continues to increase.

Abstract. Wetland drainage has been pervasive in the North American Prairie Pothole Region. There is strong evidence that this drainage increases the hydrological connectivity of previously isolated wetlands and, in turn, runoff response to snowmelt and rainfall. It can be hard to disentangle the role of climate from the influence of wetland drainage in observed records. In this study, a basin-classification-based virtual modelling approach is described that can isolate these effects on runoff regimes. The basin class which was examined, entitled Pothole Till, extends throughout much of Canada's portion of the Prairie Pothole Region. Three knowledge gaps were addressed. First, it was determined that the spatial pattern in which wetlands are drained has little influence on how much the runoff regime was altered. Second, no threshold could be identified below which wetland drainage has no effect on the runoff regime, with drainage thresholds as low as 10 % in the area being evaluated. Third, wetter regions were less sensitive to drainage as they tend to be better hydrologically connected, even in the absence of drainage. Low flows were the least affected by drainage. Conversely, during extremely wet years, runoff depths could double as the result of complete wetland removal. Simulated median annual runoff depths were the most responsive, potentially tripling under typical conditions with high degrees of wetland drainage. As storage capacity is removed from the landscape through wetland drainage, the size of the storage deficit of median years begins to decrease and to converge on those of the extreme wet years. Model simulations of flood frequency suggest that, because of these changes in antecedent conditions, precipitation that once could generate a median event with wetland drainage can generate what would have been a maximum event without wetland drainage. The advantage of the basin-classification-based virtual modelling approach employed here is that it simulated a long period that included a wide variety of precipitation and antecedent storage conditions across a diversity of wetland complexes. This has allowed seemingly disparate results of past research to be put into context and finds that conflicting results are often only because of differences in spatial scale and temporal scope of investigation. A conceptual framework is provided that shows, in general, how annual runoff in different climatic and drainage situations will likely respond to wetland drainage in the Prairie Pothole Region.

Abstract. The Red River is one of the largest contributing sources of discharge and nutrients to the world's 10th largest freshwater lake, Lake Winnipeg. Conversion of large areas of annual cropland to perennial forage has been proposed as a strategy to reduce both flooding and nutrient export to Lake Winnipeg. Such reductions could occur either via a reduction in the concentration of nutrients in runoff or through changes in the basin-scale hydrology, resulting in a lower water yield and the concomitant export of nutrients. This study assessed the latter mechanism by using the physically based Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform to examine the hydrological impacts of land use conversion from annual crops to perennial forage in a subbasin of the La Salle River basin in Canada. This basin is a typical agricultural subbasin in the Red River Valley, characterised by flat topography, clay soils, and a cold subhumid, continental climate. Long-term simulations (1992–2013) of the major components of water balance were compared between canola and smooth bromegrass, representing a conversion from annual cropping systems to perennial forage. An uncertainty framework was used to represent a range of fall soil saturation status (0 % to 70 %), which governs the infiltration to frozen soil in the subsequent spring. The model simulations indicated that, on average, there was a 36.5 ± 6.6 % (36.5 ± 7.2 mm) reduction in annual cumulative discharge and a 29.9 ± 16.3 % (2.6 ± 1.6 m3 s−1) reduction in annual peak discharge due to forage conversion over the assessed period. These reductions were driven by reduced overland flow 52.9 ± 12.8 % (28.8 ± 10.1 mm), increased peak snowpack (8.1 ± 1.5 %, 7.8 ± 1.6 mm), and enhanced infiltration to frozen soils (66.7 ± 7.7 %, 141.5 ± 15.2 mm). Higher cumulative evapotranspiration (ET) from perennial forage (34.5 ± 0.9 %, 94.1 ± 2.5 mm) was also predicted by the simulations. Overall, daily soil moisture under perennial forage was 18.0 % (57.2 ± 1.2 mm) higher than that of crop simulation, likely due to the higher snow water equivalent (SWE) and enhanced infiltration. However, the impact of forage conversion on daily soil moisture varied interannually. Soil moisture under perennial forage stands could be either higher or lower than that of annual crops, depending on antecedent spring snowmelt infiltration volumes.

• The CRHM-created Boreal Hydrology Model performed quite well on simultaneously simulating runoff, snow water equivalent, soil liquid water content and evapotranspiration (ET) with minor parameter calibration. • The basin hydrological variables showed quite different sensitivities to perturbations of precipitation (P) and temperature (T). Annual runoff was more sensitive to rising P than warming T, but annual ET was more sensitive to warming T. • Perturbed P and T had distinctively different influences on the streamflow regime. Increased P enhanced the intra- and inter-annual variabilities of basin runoff, whilst rising T resulted in the inverse changes. • Effects of warming on annual runoff and snow processes could be compensated for to varying degrees by the effects of increases in P. Hydrological processes over and through frozen and unfrozen ground were simulated in the well instrumented boreal forest basin of White Gull Creek, Saskatchewan, Canada using a model created using the flexible Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform. The CRHM-created Boreal Hydrology Model was structured and initially parameterized using decades of process hydrology research in the southern boreal forest with minor parameter calibration, and generally produced quite good performance on simultaneously reproducing the measurements of runoff, snow water equivalent (SWE), soil liquid water content and eddy correlation flux tower observations of evapotranspiration (ET) over two decades. To examine the sensitivity of basin hydrology to perturbed climate inputs, air temperature (T) inputs were set up by linear increments in the reference observation of up to +6 ℃, and precipitation (P) inputs were generated by multiplying the reference observed P from 70% to 130%. The model results showed that the basin hydrological variables showed quite different sensitivities to perturbations of P and T. The volume of annual runoff and the annual runoff coefficient increased more rapidly with rising P, at rates of 31% and 16% per 10% increase in P, but decreased by only 3.8% and 4.7% per 1 ℃ of warming. Annual ET increased rapidly with temperature, by 7% per 1 ℃ of warming and therefore drove the streamflow volumetric changes with warming, but increased only 1% per 10% increase in P. Perturbations of P and T had distinctively different influences on the streamflow regime. Increased P enhanced the intra- and inter-annual variabilities of basin runoff, reduced the relative contribution of winter runoff to annual runoff and increased the relative contribution of summer runoff; whilst rising T resulted in the inverse changes in the streamflow regime. Effects of warming on some hydrological processes could be compensated for to varying degrees by the effects of increases in P. Reductions in the annual runoff volume and runoff coefficient caused by warming up to 6 ℃ could be compensated for by increases of <20% in P. However, the maximum increase in P (+30%) examined could only compensate for the changes in snow processes caused by warming of less than 4 ℃ and snow-cover duration decreases with 1 ℃ warming could not be compensated for by any precipitation increase considered. These results inform the vulnerability of boreal forest hydrology to the first-order changes in P and T and provide guidance for further climate impact assessments for hydrology in the southern boreal forest in Canada.

Hydrological processes in mountain headwater basins are changing as climate and vegetation change. Interactions between hydrological processes and subalpine forest ecological function are important to mountain water supplies due to their control on evapotranspiration (ET). Improved understanding of the sensitivity of these interactions to seasonal and interannual changes in snowmelt and summer rainfall is needed as these interactions can impact forest growth, succession, health, and susceptibility to wildfire. To better understand this sensitivity, this research examined ET for a sub-alpine forest in the Canadian Rockies over two contrasting growing seasons and quantified the contribution of transpiration (T) from the younger tree population to overall stand ET. The younger population was focused on to permit examination of trees that have grown under the effect of recent climate change and will contribute to treeline migration, and subalpine forest densification and succession. Research sites were located at Fortress Mountain Research Basin, Kananaskis, Alberta, where the subalpine forest examined is composed of Abies lasiocarpa (Subalpine fir) and Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce). Seasonal changes in water availability from snowmelt, precipitation, soil moisture reserves yielded stark differences in T and ET between 2016 and 2017. ET was higher in the drier year (2017), which had late snowmelt and lower summer rainfall than in the wetter year (2016) that had lower snowmelt and a rainy summer, highlighting the importance of spring snowmelt recharge of soil moisture. However, stand T of the younger trees (73% of forest population) was greater (64 mm) in 2016 (275 mm summer rainfall) than 2017 (39 mm T, 147 mm summer rainfall), and appears to be sensitive to soil moisture decreases in fall, which are largely a function of summer period rainfall. Relationships between subalpine forest water use and different growing season and antecedent (snowmelt period) hydrological conditions clarify the interactions between forest water use and alpine hydrology, which can lead to better anticipation of the hydrological response of subalpine forest-dominated basins to climate variability and change.

Water science data are a valuable asset that both underpins the original research project and bolsters new research questions, particularly in view of the increasingly complex water issues facing Canada and the world. Whilst there is general support for making data more broadly accessible, and a number of water science journals and funding agencies have adopted policies that require researchers to share data in accordance with the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles, there are still questions about effective management of data to protect their usefulness over time. Incorporating data management practices and standards at the outset of a water science research project will enable researchers to efficiently locate, analyze and use data throughout the project lifecycle, and will ensure the data maintain their value after the project has ended. Here, some common misconceptions about data management are highlighted, along with insights and practical advice to assist established and early career water science researchers as they integrate data management best practices and tools into their research. Freely available tools and training opportunities made available in Canada through Global Water Futures, the Portage Network, Gordon Foundation's DataStream, Compute Canada, and university libraries, among others are compiled. These include webinars, training videos, and individual support for the water science community that together enable researchers to protect their data assets and meet the expectations of journals and funders. The perspectives shared here have been developed as part of the Global Water Futures programme's efforts to improve data management and promote the use of common data practices and standards in the context of water science in Canada. Ten best practices are proposed that may be broadly applicable to other disciplines in the natural sciences and can be adopted and adapted globally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Extensive wetland drainage has occurred across the Canadian Prairies, and drainage activities are ongoing in many areas (Dahl 1990; Watmough and Schmoll 2007; Bartzen et al. 2010; Dahl 2014; Prairi...

Cold regions provide water resources for half the global population yet face rapid change. Their hydrology is dominated by snow, ice and frozen soils, and climate warming is having profound effects. Hydrological models have a key role in predicting changing water resources, but are challenged in cold regions. Ground-based data to quantify meteorological forcing and constrain model parameterization are limited, while hydrological processes are complex, often controlled by phase change energetics. River flows are impacted by poorly quantified human activities. This paper reports scientific developments over the past decade of MESH, the Canadian community hydrological land surface scheme. New cold region process representation includes improved blowing snow transport and sublimation, lateral land-surface flow, prairie pothole storage dynamics, frozen ground infiltration and thermodynamics, and improved glacier modelling. New algorithms to represent water management include multi-stage reservoir operation. Parameterization has been supported by field observations and remotely sensed data; new methods for parameter identification have been used to evaluate model uncertainty and support regionalization. Additionally, MESH has been linked to broader decision-support frameworks, including river ice simulation and hydrological forecasting. The paper also reports various applications to the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River basins in western Canada (0.4 and 1.8 million km). These basins arise in glaciated mountain headwaters, are partly underlain by permafrost, and include remote and incompletely understood forested, wetland, agricultural and tundra ecoregions. This imposes extraordinary challenges to prediction, including the need to overcoming biases in forcing data sets, which can have disproportionate effects on the simulated hydrology.

Abstract Gridded precipitation datasets are used in many applications such as the analysis of climate variability/change and hydrological modelling. Regridding precipitation datasets is common for model coupling (e.g., coupling atmospheric and hydrological models) or comparing different models and datasets. However, regridding can considerably alter precipitation statistics. In this global analysis, the effects of regridding a precipitation dataset are emphasized using three regridding methods (first order conservative, bilinear, and distance weighted averaging). The differences between the original and regridded dataset are substantial and greatest at high quantiles. Differences of 46 mm and 0.13 mm are noted in high (0.95) and low (0.05) quantiles respectively. The impacts of regridding vary spatially for land and oceanic regions; there are substantial differences at high quantiles in tropical land regions, and at low quantiles in polar regions. These impacts are approximately the same for different regridding methods. The differences increase with the size of the grid at higher quantiles and vice versa for low quantiles. As the grid resolution increases, the difference between original and regridded data declines, yet the shift size dominates for high quantiles for which the differences are higher. Whilst regridding is often necessary to use gridded precipitation datasets, it should be used with great caution for fine resolutions (e.g., daily and sub-daily), as it can severely alter the statistical properties of precipitation, specifically at high and low quantiles.

• Application of popular catchment nutrient models is problematic in cold regions. • New nutrient modules have been developed for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model. • The model was applied to a sub-basin of the increasingly eutrophic Lake Winnipeg, Canada. • Simulated SWE, discharge, NO3, NH4, SRP and partP were compared against observations. • Typical ∼9 day-freshet accounted for 16–31% of the total annual nutrient load. Excess nutrients in aquatic ecosystems is a major water quality problem globally. Worsening eutrophication issues are notable in cold temperate areas, with pervasive problems in many agriculturally dominated catchments. Predicting nutrient export to rivers and lakes is particularly difficult in cold agricultural environments because of challenges in modelling snow, soil, frozen ground, climate, and anthropogenic controls. Previous research has shown that the use of many popular small basin nutrient models can be problematic in cold regions due to poor representation of cold region hydrology. In this study, the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling Platform (CRHM), a modular modelling system, which has been widely deployed across Canada and cold regions worldwide, was used to address this problem. CRHM was extended to simulate biogeochemical and transport processes for nitrogen and phosphorus through a complex of new process-based modules that represent physicochemical processes in snow, soil and freshwater. Agricultural practices such as tillage and fertilizer application, which strongly impact the availability and release of soil nutrients, can be explicitly represented in the model. A test case in an agricultural basin draining towards Lake Winnipeg shows that the model can capture the extreme hydrology and nutrient load variability of small agricultural basins at hourly time steps. It was demonstrated that fine temporal resolutions are an essential modelling requisite to capture strong concentration changes in agricultural tributaries in cold agricultural environments. Within these ephemeral and intermittent streams, on average, 30%, 31%, 20%, and 16% of the total annual load of nitrate (NO 3 ), ammonium (NH 4 ), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and particulate phosphorous (partP)NO 3 , NH 4 , SRP and partP occurred during the episodic snowmelt freshet ( ∼ 9 days, accounting for 21% of the annual flow), but shows extreme temporal variation. The new nutrient modules are critical tools for predicting nutrient export from small agricultural drainage basins in cold climates via better representation of key hydrological processes, and a temporal resolution more suited to capture dynamics of ephemeral and intermittent streams.

• A methodological framework to combine multiple precipitation products is proposed. • Hybrid datasets based on hydrological evaluation improve hydrological modelling. • Considering seasonal characteristics of the river basin enhance model performance. Hydrologic-Land Surface Models (H-LSMs) are subject to input uncertainties arising from climate forcing data, especially precipitation. For better streamflow simulations and predictions, the generation of a hybrid dataset by combining existing precipitation products has attracted considerable interest in recent years. To assess the accuracy of the hybrid dataset, in-situ precipitation-gauge stations are used as a reference point. However, the robustness of the hybrid dataset in representing spatial details can be problematic when the evaluation uses only a sparse network of in-situ observations at regional or basin scales. This study aims to develop a methodological framework to generate hybrid precipitation datasets based on the model performance of streamflow simulations that are spatially representative across large river basins. The framework is illustrated using a Canadian H-LSM known as MESH (Modélisation Environmentale communautaire – Surface Hydrology) in the Saskatchewan River basin, Canada, for the period 2002–2010. Five regional and global precipitation products (Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset at Princeton University (Princeton); the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to the ERA-Interim (WFDEI) augmented by Climatic Research Unit (WFDEI [CRU]) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (WFDEI [GPCC]); North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR); and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA)) were included as candidates in this study. Results indicate that the generation of a hybrid dataset based on hydrological evaluation was useful for improving H-LSM modelling skills. Hybrid datasets showed a similar or better model performance compared to that of the best basin-wide precipitation product in the headwaters and gradually performed better downstream and at the basin outlet. When multiple products are combined model performance can be further enhanced by considering seasonality with respect to the hydrological regime of the river basin. This study demonstrates the usefulness of hybrid datasets in a large-scale river basin with low climate station network density.

• Basins in the Canadian Prairies have varying contributing fractions of their areas. • Caused by the variable storage of water in depressions. • The effects of the spatial and frequency distributions of depressions are quantified. • Will lead to the development of improved hydrological models for the region. Runoff in many locations within the Canadian Prairies is dominated by intermittent fill-and-spill between depressions. As a result, many basins have varying fractions of their areas connected to their outlets, due to changing depressional storage. The objective of this research is to determine the causes of the relationships between water storage and the connected fraction of depression-dominated Prairie basins. It is hypothesized that the shapes of the relationship curves are influenced by both the spatial and frequency distributions of depressional storage. Three sets of numerical experiments are presented to test the hypothesis. The first set of experiments demonstrates that where the number of depressions is small, their size and spatial distributions are important in controlling the relationship between the volume of depressional storage and the connected fraction of a basin. As the number of depressions is increased, the areal fractions of the largest depressions decrease, which reduces the importance of the spatial distribution of depressions. The second set of experiments demonstrates that the curve enveloping the connected fraction of a basin can be derived from the frequency distribution of depression areas, and scaling relationships between the area, volume and catchment area of the depressions, when the area of the largest depression is no greater than approximately 5% of the total. The third set of experiments demonstrates that the presence of a single large depression can strongly influence the relationship between the depressional storage and the connected fraction of a basin, depending on the relative size of the large depression, and its location within the basin. A single depression containing 30% of the total depressional area located near the outlet was shown to cause a basin to be nearly endorheic. A similar depression near the top of a basin was demonstrated not to fill and was therefore unable to contribute flows. The implications of the findings for developing hydrological models of large Prairie drainage basins are discussed.

• Organic layer dry thermal conductivity dominates ground thaw uncertainty. • Significant snowpack and active layer changes are expected under climate warming. • Data poor regions would benefit from pursuing physically based approaches to reduce uncertainty. To predict future hydrological cycling in permafrost-dominated regions requires consideration of complex hydrological interactions that involve cryospheric states and fluxes, and hence thermodynamics. This challenges many hydrological models, particularly those applied in the Arctic. This study presents the implementation and validation of set of algorithms representing permafrost and frozen ground dynamics, coupled into a physically based, modular, cold regions hydrological model at two tundra sites in northern Yukon Territory, Canada. Hydrological processes represented in the model include evapotranspiration, soil moisture dynamics, flow through organic and mineral terrain, ground freeze–thaw, infiltration to frozen and unfrozen soils, snowpack energy balance, and the accumulation, wind redistribution, sublimation, and canopy interception of snow. The model was able to successfully represent observed ground surface temperature, ground thaw and snow accumulation at the two sites without calibration. A sensitivity analysis of simulated ground thaw revealed that the soil properties of the upper organic layer dominated the model response; however, its performance was robust for a range of realistic physical parameters. Different modelling decisions were assessed by removing the physically based algorithms for snowpack dynamics and ground surface temperature and replacing them with empirical approaches. Results demonstrate that more physically based approaches should be pursued to reduce uncertainties in poorly monitored environments. Finally, the model was driven by three climate warming scenarios to assess the sensitivity of snow redistribution and ablation processes and ground thaw to warming temperatures. This showed great sensitivity of snow regime and soil thaw to warming, even in the cold continental climate of the northwestern Canadian Arctic. The results are pertinent to transportation infrastructure and water management in this remote, cold, sparsely gauged region where traditional approaches to hydrological prediction are not possible.

The hydrography of the Canadian Prairies and adjacent northern US Great Plains is unusual in that the landscape is flat and recently formed due to the effects of pleistocene glaciation and a semi-arid climate since holocene deglaciation. Therefore, there has not been sufficient energy, time, or runoff water to carve typical dendritic surface water drainage networks in many locations. In these regions, runoff is often detented and sometimes stored by the millions of depressions (known locally as “potholes” or “sloughs”) that cover the landscape.

Abstract. East of the Continental Divide in the cold interior of Western Canada, the Mackenzie and Nelson River basins have some of the world's most extreme and variable climates, and the warming climate is changing the landscape, vegetation, cryosphere, and hydrology. Available data consist of streamflow records from a large number (395) of natural (unmanaged) gauged basins, where flow may be perennial or temporary, collected either year-round or during only the warm season, for a different series of years between 1910 and 2012. An annual warm-season time window where observations were available across all stations was used to classify (1) streamflow regime and (2) seasonal trend patterns. Streamflow trends were compared to changes in satellite Normalized Difference Indices. Clustering using dynamic time warping, which overcomes differences in streamflow timing due to latitude or elevation, identified 12 regime types. Streamflow regime types exhibit a strong connection to location; there is a strong distinction between mountains and plains and associated with ecozones. Clustering of seasonal trends resulted in six trend patterns that also follow a distinct spatial organization. The trend patterns include one with decreasing streamflow, four with different patterns of increasing streamflow, and one without structure. The spatial patterns of trends in mean, minimum, and maximum of Normalized Difference Indices of water and snow (NDWI and NDSI) were similar to each other but different from Normalized Difference Index of vegetation (NDVI) trends. Regime types, trend patterns, and satellite indices trends each showed spatially coherent patterns separating the Canadian Rockies and other mountain ranges in the west from the poorly defined drainage basins in the east and north. Three specific areas of change were identified: (i) in the mountains and cold taiga-covered subarctic, streamflow and greenness were increasing while wetness and snowcover were decreasing, (ii) in the forested Boreal Plains, particularly in the mountainous west, streamflows and greenness were decreasing but wetness and snowcover were not changing, and (iii) in the semi-arid to sub-humid agricultural Prairies, three patterns of increasing streamflow and an increase in the wetness index were observed. The largest changes in streamflow occurred in the eastern Canadian Prairies.

Abstract. This paper presents hydrometeorological, glaciological and geospatial data from the Peyto Glacier Research Basin (PGRB) in the Canadian Rockies. Peyto Glacier has been of interest to glaciological and hydrological researchers since the 1960s, when it was chosen as one of five glacier basins in Canada for the study of mass and water balance during the International Hydrological Decade (IHD, 1965–1974). Intensive studies of the glacier and observations of the glacier mass balance continued after the IHD, when the initial seasonal meteorological stations were discontinued, then restarted as continuous stations in the late 1980s. The corresponding hydrometric observations were discontinued in 1977 and restarted in 2013. Datasets presented in this paper include high-resolution, co-registered digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from original air photos and lidar surveys; hourly off-glacier meteorological data recorded from 1987 to the present; precipitation data from the nearby Bow Summit weather station; and long-term hydrological and glaciological model forcing datasets derived from bias-corrected reanalysis products. These data are crucial for studying climate change and variability in the basin and understanding the hydrological responses of the basin to both glacier and climate change. The comprehensive dataset for the PGRB is a valuable and exceptionally long-standing testament to the impacts of climate change on the cryosphere in the high-mountain environment. The dataset is publicly available from Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0259 (Pradhananga et al., 2020).

Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) dynamics over glaciers mediate the response of glacier mass balance to large‐scale climate forcing. Despite this, very few ABL observations are available over mountain glaciers in complex terrain. An intensive field campaign was conducted in June 2015 at the Athabasca Glacier outlet of Columbia Icefield in the Canadian Rockies. Observations of wind and temperature profiles with novel kite and radio‐acoustic sounding systems showed a well‐defined mesoscale circulation developed between the glacier and snow‐free valley in fair weather. The typical vertical ABL structure above the glacier differed from that expected for “glacier winds”; strong daytime down‐glacier winds extended through the lowest 200 m with no up‐valley return flow aloft. This structure suggests external forcing at mesoscale scales or greater and is provisionally termed an “icefield breeze.” A wind speed maximum near the surface, characteristic of a “glacier wind,” was only observed during night‐time and one afternoon. Lapse rates of air temperature down the glacier centerline show the interaction of down‐glacier cooling driven by sensible heat loss into the ice, entrainment and periodic disruption and warming. Down‐glacier cooling was weaker in “icefield breeze” conditions, while in “glacier wind” conditions, stronger down‐glacier cooling enabled large increases in near‐surface temperature on the lower glacier during periods of surface boundary layer (SBL) disruption. These results raise several questions, including the impact of Columbia Icefield on the ABL and melt of Athabasca Glacier. Future work should use these observations as a testbed for modeling spatio‐temporal variations in the ABL and SBL within complex glaciated terrain.

Snowmelt contributions to streamflow in mid-latitude mountain basins typically dominate other runoff sources on annual and seasonal timescales. Future increases in temperature and changes in precipitation will affect both snow accumulation and seasonal runoff timing and magnitude, but the underlying and fundamental roles of mountain basin geometry and hypsometry on snowmelt sensitivity have received little attention. To investigate the role of basin geometry in snowmelt sensitivity, a linear snow accumulation model and the Cold Regions Hydrological Modeling (CRHM) platform driven are used to estimate how hypsometry affects basin-wide snow volumes and snowmelt runoff. Area-elevation distributions for fifty basins in western Canada were extracted, normalized according to their elevation statistics, and classified into three clusters that represent top-heavy, middle, and bottom-heavy basins. Prescribed changes in air temperature alter both the snow accumulation gradient and the total snowmelt energy, leading to snowpack volume reductions (10–40%), earlier melt onsets (1–4 weeks) and end of melt season (3 weeks), increases in early spring melt rates and reductions in seasonal areal melt rates (up to 50%). Basin hypsometry controls the magnitude of the basin response. The most sensitive basins are bottom-heavy, and have a greater proportion of their area at low elevations. The least sensitive basins are top-heavy, and have a greater proportion of their area at high elevations. Basins with similar proportional areas at high and low elevations fall in between the others in terms of sensitivity and other metrics. This work provides context for anticipating the impacts of ongoing hydrological change due to climate change, and provides guidance for both monitoring networks and distributed modeling efforts.

Abstract. The continental divide along the spine of the Canadian Rockies in southwestern Canada is a critical headwater region for hydrological drainages to the Pacific, Arctic, and Atlantic oceans. Major flooding events are typically attributed to heavy precipitation on its eastern side due to upslope (easterly) flows. Precipitation can also occur on the western side of the divide when moisture originating from the Pacific Ocean encounters the west-facing slopes of the Canadian Rockies. Often, storms propagating across the divide result in significant precipitation on both sides. Meteorological data over this critical region are sparse, with few stations located at high elevations. Given the importance of all these types of events, the Storms and Precipitation Across the continental Divide Experiment (SPADE) was initiated to enhance our knowledge of the atmospheric processes leading to storms and precipitation on either side of the continental divide. This was accomplished by installing specialized meteorological instrumentation on both sides of the continental divide and carrying out manual observations during an intensive field campaign from 24 April–26 June 2019. On the eastern side, there were two field sites: (i) at Fortress Mountain Powerline (2076 m a.s.l.) and (ii) at Fortress Junction Service, located in a high-elevation valley (1580 m a.s.l.). On the western side, Nipika Mountain Resort, also located in a valley (1087 m a.s.l.), was chosen as a field site. Various meteorological instruments were deployed including two Doppler light detection and ranging instruments (lidars), three vertically pointing micro rain radars, and three optical disdrometers. The three main sites were nearly identically instrumented, and observers were on site at Fortress Mountain Powerline and Nipika Mountain Resort during precipitation events to take manual observations of precipitation type and microphotographs of solid particles. The objective of the field campaign was to gather high-temporal-frequency meteorological data and to compare the different conditions on either side of the divide to study the precipitation processes that can lead to catastrophic flooding in the region. Details on field sites, instrumentation used, and collection methods are discussed. Data from the study are publicly accessible from the Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0221 (Thériault et al., 2020). This dataset will be used to study atmospheric conditions associated with precipitation events documented simultaneously on either side of a continental divide. This paper also provides a sample of the data gathered during a precipitation event.

Abstract. The interior of western Canada, like many similar cold mid- to high-latitude regions worldwide, is undergoing extensive and rapid climate and environmental change, which may accelerate in the coming decades. Understanding and predicting changes in coupled climate–land–hydrological systems are crucial to society yet limited by lack of understanding of changes in cold-region process responses and interactions, along with their representation in most current-generation land-surface and hydrological models. It is essential to consider the underlying processes and base predictive models on the proper physics, especially under conditions of non-stationarity where the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future and system trajectories can be unexpected. These challenges were forefront in the recently completed Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), which assembled and focused a wide range of multi-disciplinary expertise to improve the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of change over the cold interior of western Canada. CCRN advanced knowledge of fundamental cold-region ecological and hydrological processes through observation and experimentation across a network of highly instrumented research basins and other sites. Significant efforts were made to improve the functionality and process representation, based on this improved understanding, within the fine-scale Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform and the large-scale Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire (MEC) – Surface and Hydrology (MESH) model. These models were, and continue to be, applied under past and projected future climates and under current and expected future land and vegetation cover configurations to diagnose historical change and predict possible future hydrological responses. This second of two articles synthesizes the nature and understanding of cold-region processes and Earth system responses to future climate, as advanced by CCRN. These include changing precipitation and moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere; altered snow regimes, changing balance of snowfall and rainfall, and glacier loss; vegetation responses to climate and the loss of ecosystem resilience to wildfire and disturbance; thawing permafrost and its influence on landscapes and hydrology; groundwater storage and cycling and its connections to surface water; and stream and river discharge as influenced by the various drivers of hydrological change. Collective insights, expert elicitation, and model application are used to provide a synthesis of this change over the CCRN region for the late 21st century.

Abstract Rain-on-snow (ROS) events can trigger severe floods in mountain regions. There is high uncertainty about how the frequency of ROS events (ROS) and associated floods will change as climate warms. Previous research has found considerable spatial variability in ROS responses to climate change. Detailed global assessments have not been conducted. Here, atmospheric reanalysis data was used to drive a physically based snow hydrology model to simulate the snowpack and the streamflow response to climate warming of a 5.25 km 2 virtual basin (VB) applied to different high mountain climates around the world. Results confirm that the sensitivity of ROS to climate warming is highly variable among sites, and also with different elevations, aspects and slopes in each basin. The hydrological model predicts a decrease in the frequency of ROS with warming in 30 out 40 of the VBs analyzed; the rest have increasing ROS. The dominant phase of precipitation, duration of snow cover and average temperature of each basin are the main factors that explain this variation in the sensitivity of ROS to climate warming. Within each basin, the largest decreases in ROS were predicted to be at lower elevations and on slopes with sunward aspects. Although the overall frequency of ROS drops, the hydrological importance of ROS is not expected to decline. Peak streamflows due to ROS are predicted to increase due to more rapid melting from enhanced energy inputs, and warmer snowpacks during future ROS.

Abstract Twenty-seven models participated in the Earth System Model–Snow Model Intercomparison Project (ESM-SnowMIP), the most data-rich MIP dedicated to snow modeling. Our findings do not support the hypothesis advanced by previous snow MIPs: evaluating models against more variables and providing evaluation datasets extended temporally and spatially does not facilitate identification of key new processes requiring improvement to model snow mass and energy budgets, even at point scales. In fact, the same modeling issues identified by previous snow MIPs arose: albedo is a major source of uncertainty, surface exchange parameterizations are problematic, and individual model performance is inconsistent. This lack of progress is attributed partly to the large number of human errors that led to anomalous model behavior and to numerous resubmissions. It is unclear how widespread such errors are in our field and others; dedicated time and resources will be needed to tackle this issue to prevent highly sophisticated models and their research outputs from being vulnerable because of avoidable human mistakes. The design of and the data available to successive snow MIPs were also questioned. Evaluation of models against bulk snow properties was found to be sufficient for some but inappropriate for more complex snow models whose skills at simulating internal snow properties remained untested. Discussions between the authors of this paper on the purpose of MIPs revealed varied, and sometimes contradictory, motivations behind their participation. These findings started a collaborative effort to adapt future snow MIPs to respond to the diverse needs of the community.

Abstract. The interaction of mountain terrain with meteorological processes causes substantial temporal and spatial variability in snow accumulation and ablation. Processes impacted by complex terrain include large-scale orographic enhancement of snowfall, small-scale processes such as gravitational and wind-induced transport of snow, and variability in the radiative balance such as through terrain shadowing. In this study, a multi-scale modelling approach is proposed to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of high-mountain snowpacks. The multi-scale approach combines atmospheric data from a numerical weather prediction system at the kilometre scale with process-based downscaling techniques to drive the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) at spatial resolutions allowing for explicit snow redistribution modelling. CHM permits a variable spatial resolution by using the efficient terrain representation by unstructured triangular meshes. The model simulates processes such as radiation shadowing and irradiance to slopes, blowing-snow transport (saltation and suspension) and sublimation, avalanching, forest canopy interception and sublimation, and snowpack melt. Short-term, kilometre-scale atmospheric forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale Model through its High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) drive CHM and are downscaled to the unstructured mesh scale. In particular, a new wind-downscaling strategy uses pre-computed wind fields from a mass-conserving wind model at 50 m resolution to perturb the mesoscale HRDPS wind and to account for the influence of topographic features on wind direction and speed. HRDPS-CHM was applied to simulate snow conditions down to 50 m resolution during winter 2017/2018 in a domain around the Kananaskis Valley (∼1000 km2) in the Canadian Rockies. Simulations were evaluated using high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) snow depth data and snow persistence indexes derived from remotely sensed imagery. Results included model falsifications and showed that both wind-induced and gravitational snow redistribution need to be simulated to capture the snowpack variability and the evolution of snow depth and persistence with elevation across the region. Accumulation of windblown snow on leeward slopes and associated snow cover persistence were underestimated in a CHM simulation driven by wind fields that did not capture lee-side flow recirculation and associated wind speed decreases. A terrain-based metric helped to identify these lee-side areas and improved the wind field and the associated snow redistribution. An overestimation of snow redistribution from windward to leeward slopes and subsequent avalanching was still found. The results of this study highlight the need for further improvements of snowdrift-permitting models for large-scale applications, in particular the representation of subgrid topographic effects on snow transport.

Abstract. This paper presents hydrometeorological, glaciological and geospatial data of the Peyto Glacier Research Basin (PGRB) in the Canadian Rockies. Peyto Glacier has been of interest to glaciological and hydrological researchers since the 1960s, when it was chosen as one of five glacier basins in Canada for the study of mass and water balance during the International Hydrological Decade (IHD, 1965–1974). Intensive studies of the glacier and observations of the glacier mass balance continued after the IHD, when the initial seasonal meteorological stations were discontinued, then restarted as continuous stations in the late 1980s. The corresponding hydrometric observations were discontinued in 1977 and restarted in 2013. Data sets presented in this paper include: high resolution, co-registered DEMs derived from original air photos and LiDAR surveys; hourly off-glacier meteorological data recorded from 1987 to present; precipitation data from nearby Bow Summit; and long-term hydrological and glaciological model forcing datasets derived from bias-corrected reanalysis products. These data are crucial for studying climate change and variability in the basin, and to understanding the hydrological responses of the basin to both glacier and climate change. The comprehensive data set for the PGRB is a valuable and exceptionally long-standing testament to the impacts of climate change on the cryosphere in the high mountain environment. The dataset is publicly available from Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0259 (Pradhananga et al., 2020).

Abstract. Thirty-year simulations of seasonal snow cover in 22 physically based models driven with bias-corrected meteorological reanalyses are examined at four sites with long records of snow observations. Annual snow cover durations differ widely between models but interannual variations are strongly correlated because of the common driving data. No significant trends are observed in starting dates for seasonal snow cover, but there are significant trends towards snow cover ending earlier at two of the sites in observations and most of the models. A simplified model with just two parameters controlling solar radiation and sensible heat contributions to snowmelt spans the ranges of snow cover durations and trends. This model predicts that sites where snow persists beyond annual peaks in solar radiation and air temperature will experience rapid decreases in snow cover duration with warming as snow begins to melt earlier and at times of year with more energy available for melting.

Abstract. The interaction of mountain terrain with meteorological processes causes substantial temporal and spatial variability in snow accumulation and ablation. Processes impacted by complex terrain include large-scale orographic enhancement of snowfall, small-scale processes such as gravitational and wind-induced transport of snow, and variability in the radiative balance such as through terrain shadowing. In this study, a multi-scale modeling approach is proposed to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of high mountain snowpacks using the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM), a multi-scale, spatially distributed modelling framework. CHM permits a variable spatial resolution by using the efficient terrain representation by unstructured triangular meshes. The model simulates processes such as radiation shadowing and irradiance to slopes, blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, avalanching, forest canopy interception and sublimation and snowpack melt. Short-term, km-scale atmospheric forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale Model through its High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) drive CHM, and were downscaled to the unstructured mesh scale using process-based procedures. In particular, a new wind downscaling strategy combines meso-scale HRDPS outputs and micro-scale pre-computed wind fields to allow for blowing snow calculations. HRDPS-CHM was applied to simulate snow conditions down to 50-m resolution during winter 2017/2018 in a domain around the Kananaskis Valley (~1000 km2) in the Canadian Rockies. Simulations were evaluated using high-resolution airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) snow depth data and snow persistence indexes derived from remotely sensed imagery. Results included model falsifications and showed that both blowing snow and gravitational snow redistribution need to be simulated to capture the snowpack variability and the evolution of snow depth and persistence with elevation across the region. Accumulation of wind-blown snow on leeward slopes and associated snow-cover persistence were underestimated in a CHM simulation driven by wind fields that did not capture leeside flow recirculation and associated wind speed decreases. A terrain-based metric helped to identify these lee-side areas and improved the wind field and the associated snow redistribution. An overestimation of snow redistribution from windward to leeward slopes and subsequent avalanching was still found. The results of this study highlight the need for further improvements of snowdrift-permitting models for large-scale applications, in particular the representation of subgrid topographic effects on snow transport.

Abstract. Vegetation has a tremendous influence on snow processes and snowpack dynamics, yet remote sensing techniques to resolve the spatial variability of sub-canopy snow depth are not always available and are difficult from space-based platforms. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have had recent widespread application to capture high-resolution information on snow processes and are herein applied to the sub-canopy snow depth challenge. Previous demonstrations of snow depth mapping with UAV structure from motion (SfM) and airborne lidar have focussed on non-vegetated surfaces or reported large errors in the presence of vegetation. In contrast, UAV-lidar systems have high-density point clouds and measure returns from a wide range of scan angles, increasing the likelihood of successfully sensing the sub-canopy snow depth. The effectiveness of UAV lidar and UAV SfM in mapping snow depth in both open and forested terrain was tested in a 2019 field campaign at the Canadian Rockies Hydrological Observatory, Alberta, and at Canadian prairie sites near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. Only UAV lidar could successfully measure the sub-canopy snow surface with reliable sub-canopy point coverage and consistent error metrics (root mean square error (RMSE) <0.17 m and bias −0.03 to −0.13 m). Relative to UAV lidar, UAV SfM did not consistently sense the sub-canopy snow surface, the interpolation needed to account for point cloud gaps introduced interpolation artefacts, and error metrics demonstrated relatively large variability (RMSE<0.33 m and bias 0.08 to −0.14 m). With the demonstration of sub-canopy snow depth mapping capabilities, a number of early applications are presented to showcase the ability of UAV lidar to effectively quantify the many multiscale snow processes defining snowpack dynamics in mountain and prairie environments.

Abstract. Vegetation has a tremendous influence on snow processes and snowpack dynamics, yet remote sensing techniques to resolve the spatial variability of sub-canopy snow depth are not always available and are difficult from space-based platforms. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have had recent widespread application to capture high-resolution information on snow processes and are herein applied to the sub-canopy snow depth challenge. Previous demonstrations of snow depth mapping with UAV structure from motion (SfM) and airborne lidar have focussed on non-vegetated surfaces or reported large errors in the presence of vegetation. In contrast, UAV-lidar systems have high-density point clouds and measure returns from a wide range of scan angles, increasing the likelihood of successfully sensing the sub-canopy snow depth. The effectiveness of UAV lidar and UAV SfM in mapping snow depth in both open and forested terrain was tested in a 2019 field campaign at the Canadian Rockies Hydrological Observatory, Alberta, and at Canadian prairie sites near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. Only UAV lidar could successfully measure the sub-canopy snow surface with reliable sub-canopy point coverage and consistent error metrics (root mean square error (RMSE) <0.17 m and bias −0.03 to −0.13 m). Relative to UAV lidar, UAV SfM did not consistently sense the sub-canopy snow surface, the interpolation needed to account for point cloud gaps introduced interpolation artefacts, and error metrics demonstrated relatively large variability (RMSE<0.33 m and bias 0.08 to −0.14 m). With the demonstration of sub-canopy snow depth mapping capabilities, a number of early applications are presented to showcase the ability of UAV lidar to effectively quantify the many multiscale snow processes defining snowpack dynamics in mountain and prairie environments.

Subalpine forests are hydrologically important to the function and health of mountain basins. Identifying the specific water sources and the proportions used by subalpine forests is necessary to understand potential impacts to these forests under a changing climate. The recent “Two Water Worlds” hypothesis suggests that trees can favour tightly bound soil water instead of readily available free-flowing soil water. Little is known about the specific sources of water used by subalpine trees Abies lasiocarpa (Subalpine fir) and Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. In this study, stable water isotope (δ18O and δ2H) samples were obtained from S. fir and Engelmann spruce trees at three points of the growing season in combination with water sources available at time of sampling (snow, vadose zone water, saturated zone water, precipitation). Using the Bayesian Mixing Model, MixSIAR, relative source water proportions were calculated. In the drought summer examined, there was a net loss of water via evapotranspiration from the system. Results highlighted the importance of tightly vadose zone, or bound soil water, to subalpine forests, providing insights of future health under sustained years of drought and net loss in summer growing seasons. This work builds upon concepts from the “Two Water Worlds” hypothesis, showing that subalpine trees can draw from different water sources depending on season and availability. In our case, water use was largely driven by a tension gradient within the soil allowing trees to utilize vadose zone water and saturated zone water at differing points of the growing season.

Abstract The freeze–thaw changes of seasonally frozen ground (SFG) are an important indicator of climate change. Based on observed daily freeze depth of SFG from meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from 1960 to 2014, the spatial–temporal characteristics and trends in SFG were analyzed, and the relationships between them and climatic and geographical factors were explored. Freeze–thaw changes of SFG on a regional scale were assessed by multiple regression functions. Results showed multiyear mean maximum freeze depth, freeze–thaw duration, freeze start date, and thaw end date that demonstrate obvious distribution characteristics of climatic zones. A decreasing trend in maximum freeze depth and freeze–thaw duration occurred on the TP from 1960 to 2014. The freeze start date has been later, and the thaw end date has been significantly earlier. The freeze–thaw changes of SFG significantly affected by soil hydrothermal conditions on the TP could be assessed by elevation and latitude or by air temperature and precipitation, due to their high correlations. The regional average of maximum freeze depth and freeze–thaw duration caused by climatic and geographical factors were larger than those averaged using meteorological station data because most stations are located at lower altitudes. Maximum freeze depth and freeze–thaw duration have decreased sharply since 2000 on the entire TP. Warming and wetting conditions of the soil resulted in a significant decrease in maximum freeze depth and freeze–thaw duration in the most area of the TP, while drying soil results in a slight increase of them in the southeast of the TP.

In cold agricultural regions, seasonal snowmelt over frozen soils provides the primary source of runoff and transports large nutrient loads downstream. The postglacial landscape of the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains of the United States creates challenges for hydrological and water quality modeling. Here, the application of conventional hydrological models is problematic because of cold regions hydrological and chemical processes, the lack of fluvially eroded drainage systems, large noncontributing areas to streamflow and level topography. A new hydrodynamic model was developed to diagnose overland flow from snowmelt in this situation. The model was used to calculate the effect of variable contributing areas on (1) hydrological connectivity and the development of (2) tipping points in streamflow generation and (3) predominant chemical transport pathways. The agricultural Steppler Basin in Manitoba, Canada, was used to evaluate the model and diagnose snowmelt runoff. Relationships were established between contributing area and (1) snowmelt runoff intensity, (2) seasonal snowmelt volumes and duration, and (3) inundated, active and connected areas. Variations in the contributing area depended on terrain and snowmelt characteristics including wind redistribution of snow. Predictors of hydrological response and the size of the contributing area were developed which can be used in larger scale hydrological models of similar regions

Abstract. Cold region hydrology is very sensitive to the impacts of climate warming. Impacts of warming over recent decades in western Canada include glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and changing patterns of precipitation, with an increased proportion of winter precipitation falling as rainfall and shorter durations of snow cover, as well as consequent changes in flow regimes. Future warming is expected to continue along these lines. Physically realistic and sophisticated hydrological models driven by reliable climate forcing can provide the capability to assess hydrological responses to climate change. However, the provision of reliable forcing data remains problematic, particularly in data-sparse regions. Hydrological processes in cold regions involve complex phase changes and so are very sensitive to small biases in the driving meteorology, particularly in temperature and precipitation, including precipitation phase. Cold regions often have sparse surface observations, particularly at high elevations that generate a large amount of runoff. This paper aims to provide an improved set of forcing data for large-scale hydrological models for climate change impact assessment. The best available gridded data in Canada are from the high-resolution forecasts of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model and outputs of the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA), but these datasets have a short historical record. The EU WATCH ERA-Interim reanalysis (WFDEI) has a longer historical record but has often been found to be biased relative to observations over Canada. The aim of this study, therefore, is to blend the strengths of both datasets (GEM-CaPA and WFDEI) to produce a less-biased long-record product (WFDEI-GEM-CaPA) for hydrological modelling and climate change impact assessment over the Mackenzie River Basin. First, a multivariate generalization of the quantile mapping technique was implemented to bias-correct WFDEI against GEM-CaPA at 3 h ×0.125∘ resolution during the 2005–2016 overlap period, followed by a hindcast of WFDEI-GEM-CaPA from 1979. The derived WFDEI-GEM-CaPA data are validated against station observations as a preliminary step to assess their added value. This product is then used to bias-correct climate projections from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) between 1950 and 2100 under RCP8.5, and an analysis of the datasets shows that the biases in the original WFDEI product have been removed and the climate change signals in CanRCM4 are preserved. The resulting bias-corrected datasets are a consistent set of historical and climate projection data suitable for large-scale modelling and future climate scenario analysis. The final historical product (WFDEI-GEM-CaPA, 1979–2016) is freely available at the Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0111 (Asong et al., 2018), while the original and corrected CanRCM4 data are available at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0162 (Asong et al., 2019).

Abstract The hydrology of cold regions has been studied for decades with substantial progress in process understanding and prediction. Simultaneously, work on nutrient yields from agricultural land in cold regions has shown much slower progress. Advancement of nutrient modelling is constrained by well-documented issues of spatial heterogeneity, climate dependency, data limitations and over-parameterization of models, as well as challenges specific to cold regions due to the complex (and often unknown) behaviour of hydro-biogeochemical processes at temperatures close to and below freezing where a phase change occurs. This review is a critical discussion of these issues by taking a close look at the conceptual models and methods behind used catchment nutrient models. The impact of differences in model structure and the methods used for the prediction of hydrological processes, erosion and biogeochemical cycles are examined. The appropriateness of scale, scope, and complexity of models are discussed to propose future research directions.

The preferential elution of ions from melting snowpacks is a complex problem that has been linked to temporary acidification of water bodies. However, the understanding of these processes in snowpacks around the world, including the polar regions that are experiencing unprecedented warming and melting, remains limited despite being instrumental in supporting climate change adaptation. In this study, data collected from a snowmelt lysimeter and snowpits at meadow and forest-gap sites in a high elevation watershed in Colorado were combined with the PULSE multi-phase snowpack chemistry model to investigate the controls of meltwater chemistry and preferential elution. The snowdepth at the meadow site was 64% of that at the forest-gap site, and the snowmelt rate was greater there (meadow snowpit) due to higher solar irradiance. Cations such as Ca2+ and NH4+ were deposited mostly within the upper layers of both the meadow and forest-gap snowpacks, and acid anions such as NO3- and SO42- were more evenly distributed. The snow ion concentrations were generally greater at the forest-gap snowpit, except for NH4+, which indicates that wind erosion of wet and dry deposited ions from the meadow may have reduced concentrations of residual snow. Furthermore, at the forest-gap site, snow interception and scavenging processes such as sublimation, ventilation, and throughfall led to particular ion enrichment of Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, Cl-, SO42- and NO3-. Model simulations and observations highlight that preferential elution is enhanced by low snowmelt rates, with the model indicating that this is due to lower dilution rates and increased contact time and area between the percolating meltwater and the snow. Results suggest that low snowmelt rates can cause multiple early meltwater ionic pulses for ions subject to lower ion exclusion. Ion exclusion rates at the grain-size level have been estimated for the first time.

Abstract. The spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) and melt are important for estimating areal melt rates and snow-cover depletion (SCD) dynamics but are rarely measured in detail during the late ablation period. This study contributes results from high-resolution observations made using large numbers of sequential aerial photographs taken from an unmanned aerial vehicle on an alpine ridge in the Fortress Mountain Snow Laboratory in the Canadian Rocky Mountains from May to July in 2015. Using structure-from-motion and thresholding techniques, spatial maps of snow depth, snow cover and differences in snow depth (dHS) during ablation were generated in very high resolution as proxies for spatial SWE, spatial ablation rates and SCD. The results indicate that the initial distribution of snow depth was highly variable due to overwinter snow redistribution; thus, the subsequent distribution of dHS was also variable due to albedo, slope/aspect and other unaccountable differences. However, the initial distribution of snow depth was 5 times more variable than that of the subsequent dHS values, which varied by a factor of 2 between the north and south aspects. dHS patterns were somewhat spatially persistent over time but had an insubstantial impact on SCD curves, which were overwhelmingly governed by the initial distribution of snow depth. The reason for this is that only a weak spatial correlation developed between the initial snow depth and dHS. Previous research has shown that spatial correlations between SWE and ablation rates can strongly influence SCD curves. Reasons for the lack of a correlation in this study area were analysed and a generalisation to other regions was discussed. The following questions were posed: what is needed for a large spatial correlation between initial snow depth and dHS? When should snow depth and dHS be taken into account to correctly model SCD? The findings of this study suggest that hydrological and atmospheric models need to incorporate realistic distributions of SWE, melt energy and cold content; therefore, they must account for realistic correlations (i.e. not too large or too small) between SWE and melt in order to accurately model SCD.

Snow interception is a crucial hydrological process in cold regions needleleaf forests, but is rarely measured directly. Indirect estimates of snow interception can be made by measuring the difference in the increase in snow accumulation between the forest floor and a nearby clearing over the course of a storm. Pairs of automatic weather stations with acoustic snow depth sensors provide an opportunity to estimate this, if snow density can be estimated reliably. Three approaches for estimating fresh snow density were investigated: weighted post‐storm density increments from the physically based Snobal model, fresh snow density estimated empirically from air temperature (Hedstrom, N. R., et al. [1998]. Hydrological Processes, 12, 1611–1625), and fresh snow density estimated empirically from air temperature and wind speed (Jordan, R. E., et al. [1999]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 7785–7806). Automated snow depth observations from adjacent forest and clearing sites and estimated snow densities were used to determine snowstorm snow interception in a subalpine forest in the Canadian Rockies, Alberta, Canada. Then the estimated snow interception and measured interception information from a weighed, suspended tree and a time‐lapse camera were assimilated into a model, which was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM), using Ensemble Kalman Filter or a simple rule‐based direct insertion method. Interception determined using density estimates from the Hedstrom‐Pomeroy fresh snow density equation agreed best with observations. Assimilating snow interception information from automatic snow depth measurements improved modelled snow interception timing by 7% and magnitude by 13%, compared to an open loop simulation driven by a numerical weather model; its accuracy was close to that simulated using locally observed meteorological data. Assimilation of tree‐measured snow interception improved the snow interception simulation timing and magnitude by 18 and 19%, respectively. Time‐lapse camera snow interception information assimilation improved the snow interception simulation timing by 32% and magnitude by 7%. The benefits of assimilation were greatly influenced by assimilation frequency and quality of the forcing data.

Blowing snow is ubiquitous in cold, windswept environments. In some regions, blowing snow sublimation losses can ablate a notable fraction of the seasonal snowfall. It is advantageous to predict alpine snow regimes at the spatial scale of snowdrifts (≈1 to 100 m) because of the role of snow redistribution in governing the duration and volume of snowmelt. However, blowing snow processes are often neglected due to computational costs. Here, a three‐dimensional blowing snow model is presented that is spatially discretized using a variable resolution unstructured mesh. This represents the heterogeneity of the surface explicitly yet, for the case study reported, gained a 62% reduction in computational elements versus a fixed‐resolution mesh and resulted in a 44% reduction in total runtime. The model was evaluated for a subarctic mountain basin using transects of measured snow water equivalent (SWE) in a tundra valley. Including blowing snow processes improved the prediction of SWE by capturing inner‐annual snowdrift formation, more than halved the total mean bias error, and increased the coefficient of variation of SWE from 0.04 to 0.31 better matching the observed CV (0.41). The use of a variable resolution mesh did not dramatically degrade the model performance. Comparison with a constant resolution mesh showed a similar CV and RMSE as the variable resolution mesh. The constant resolution mesh had a smaller mean bias error. A sensitivity analysis showed that snowdrift locations and immediate up‐wind sources of blowing snow are the most sensitive areas of the landscape to wind speed variations.

Abstract. Despite debate in the rainfall–runoff hydrology literature about the merits of physics-based and spatially distributed models, substantial work in cold-region hydrology has shown improved predictive capacity by including physics-based process representations, relatively high-resolution semi-distributed and fully distributed discretizations, and the use of physically identifiable parameters that require limited calibration. While there is increasing motivation for modelling at hyper-resolution (< 1 km) and snowdrift-resolving scales (≈ 1 to 100 m), the capabilities of existing cold-region hydrological models are computationally limited at these scales. Here, a new distributed model, the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM), is presented. Although designed to be applied generally, it has a focus for application where cold-region processes play a role in hydrology. Key features include the ability to do the following: capture spatial heterogeneity in the surface discretization in an efficient manner via variable-resolution unstructured meshes; include multiple process representations; change, remove, and decouple hydrological process algorithms; work at both a point and spatially distributed scale; scale to multiple spatial extents and scales; and utilize a variety of forcing fields (boundary and initial conditions). This paper focuses on the overall model philosophy and design, and it provides a number of cold-region-specific features and examples.

Abstract. From 19 to 22 June 2013, intense rainfall and concurrent snowmelt led to devastating floods in the Canadian Rockies, foothills and downstream areas of southern Alberta and southeastern British Columbia, Canada. Such an event is typical of late-spring floods in cold-region mountain headwater, combining intense precipitation with rapid melting of late-lying snowpack, and represents a challenge for hydrological forecasting systems. This study investigated the factors governing the ability to predict such an event. Three sources of uncertainty, other than the hydrological model processes and parameters, were considered: (i) the resolution of the atmospheric forcings, (ii) the snow and soil moisture initial conditions (ICs) and (iii) the representation of the soil texture. The Global Environmental Multiscale hydrological modeling platform (GEM-Hydro), running at a 1 km grid spacing, was used to simulate hydrometeorological conditions in the main headwater basins of southern Alberta during this event. The GEM atmospheric model and the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system were combined to generate atmospheric forcing at 10, 2.5 and 1 km over southern Alberta. Gridded estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) from the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) were used to replace the model SWE at peak snow accumulation and generate alternative snow and soil moisture ICs before the event. Two global soil texture datasets were also used. Overall 12 simulations of the flooding event were carried out. Results show that the resolution of the atmospheric forcing affected primarily the flood volume and peak flow in all river basins due to a more accurate estimation of intensity and total amount of precipitation during the flooding event provided by CaPA analysis at convection-permitting scales (2.5 and 1 km). Basin-averaged snowmelt also changed with the resolution due to changes in near-surface wind and resulting turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt. Snow ICs were the main sources of uncertainty for half of the headwater basins. Finally, the soil texture had less impact and only affected peak flow magnitude and timing for some stations. These results highlight the need to combine atmospheric forcing at convection-permitting scales with high-quality snow ICs to provide accurate streamflow predictions during late-spring floods in cold-region mountain river basins. The predictive improvement by inclusion of high-elevation weather stations in the precipitation analysis and the need for accurate mountain snow information suggest the necessity of integrated observation and prediction systems for forecasting extreme events in mountain river basins.

Abstract Changes in Canadian Prairie streamflow, particularly trends over time, have not been well studied but are particularly relevant for food and water security in this vast agricultural region. Streamflow records for this region are often unsuitable for conventional trend analysis; streams are often intermittent and have only a few days per year with flow, and stations operate only during the warm season, because of a lack of flow during the very cold Prairie winter. This study takes an alternative approach; streamflow data for the period from March to October for individual years between 1910 and 2015 from 169 hydrometric stations from the Prairie and adjacent areas in Canada were converted to annual cumulative runoff series. These 5895 individual station-years were then clustered based upon their shape, using dynamic time warping. Three clusters of cumulative annual runoff were found; the first and most common type has infrequent days with flow and low total annual runoff [0–50 mm], the second has more days with flow and slightly greater runoff [48–175 mm], and the least common third type has the fewest days without flow, includes perennial streams, and has much greater annual runoff [>173 mm]. For each hydrometric station a time series of annual cluster memberships was created. Trends in the fractions of cluster types were determined using logistic regression, with spatial groupings of these time series over five-year periods. Trends in the fractions of types within an ecoregion indicate spatially consistent and organized changes in the pattern of runoff over the region. In the western Canadian Prairies, particularly in the Mixed Grassland and Cypress Upland ecoregions, drying is occurring, as indicated by the increased frequency of the dry type. In the northern and eastern Canadian Prairies, conditions are shifting to greater runoffs, particularly in the Aspen Parkland, where the wet types are increasing in frequency.

Abstract Freshwater ecosystems, particularly those in agricultural areas, remain at risk of eutrophication due to anthropogenic inputs of nutrients. While community-based monitoring has helped improve awareness and spur action to mitigate nutrient loads, monitoring is challenging due to the reliance on expensive laboratory technology, poor data management, time lags between measurement and availability of results, and risk of sample degradation during transport or storage. In this study, an easy-to-use smartphone-based application (The Nutrient App) was developed to estimate NO 3 and PO 4 concentrations through the image-processing of on-site qualitative colorimetric-based results obtained via cheap commercially-available instantaneous test kits. The app was tested in rivers, wetlands, and lakes across Canada and relative errors between 30% (filtered samples) and 70% (unfiltered samples) were obtained for both NO 3 and PO 4 . The app can be used to identify sources and hotspots of contamination, which can empower communities to take immediate remedial action to reduce nutrient pollution.

Recent studies of water flow through dry porous media have shown progress in simulating preferential flow propagation. However, current methods applied to snowpacks have neglected the dynamic nature of the capillary pressure, such as conditions for capillary pressure overshoot, resulting in a rather limited representation of the water flow patterns through snowpacks observed in laboratory and field experiments. Indeed, previous snowmelt models using a water entry pressure to simulate preferential flow paths do not work for natural snowpack conditions where snow densities are less than 380 kg m−3. Because preferential flow in snowpacks greatly alters the flow velocity and the timing of delivery of meltwater to the base of a snowpack early in the melt season, a better understanding of this process would aid hydrological predictions. This study presents a 2‐D water flow through snow model that solves the non‐equilibrium Richards equation. This model, coupled with random perturbations of snow properties, can represent realistic preferential flow patterns. Using 1‐D laboratory data, two model parameters were linked to snow properties and model boundary conditions. Parameterizations of these model parameters were evaluated against 2‐D snowpack observations from a laboratory experiment, and the resulting model sensitivity to varying inputs and boundary conditions was calculated. The model advances both the physical understanding of and ability to simulate water flow through snowpacks and can be used in the future to parameterize 1‐D snowmelt models to incorporate flow variations due to preferential flow path formation.

Abstract Climate warming will reduce the duration of mountain snowpacks and spring runoff, impacting the timing, volume, reliability, and sources of water supplies to mountain headwaters of rivers that support a large proportion of humanity. It is often assumed that snow hydrology will change in proportion to climate warming, but this oversimplifies the complex non-linear physical processes that drive precipitation phases and snowmelt. In this study, snow hydrology predictions made using a physical process snow hydrology model for 44 mountains areas worldwide enabled analysis of how snow and hydrological regimes will respond and interact under climate warming. The results show a generalized decoupling of mountain river hydrology from headwater snowpack regimes. Consequently, most river hydrological regimes shifted from reflecting the seasonal snowmelt freshet to responding rapidly to winter and spring precipitation. Similar to that already observed in particular regions, this study confirms that the worldwide decline in snow accumulation and snow cover duration with climate warming is substantial and spatially variable, yet highly predictable from air temperature and humidity data. Hydrological regimes showed less sensitivity, and less variability in their sensitivity to warming than did snowpack regimes. The sensitivity of the snowpack to warming provides crucial information for estimating shifts in the timing and contribution of snowmelt to runoff. However, no link was found between the magnitude of changes in the snowpack and changes in annual runoff.

Abstract Global gridded precipitation products have proven essential for many applications ranging from hydrological modeling and climate model validation to natural hazard risk assessment. They provide a global picture of how precipitation varies across time and space, specifically in regions where ground-based observations are scarce. While the application of global precipitation products has become widespread, there is limited knowledge on how well these products represent the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation—the key features in triggering flood hazards. Here, five global precipitation datasets (MSWEP, CFSR, CPC, PERSIANN-CDR, and WFDEI) are compared to each other and to surface observations. The spatial variability of relatively high precipitation events (tail heaviness) and the resulting discrepancy among datasets in the predicted precipitation return levels were evaluated for the time period 1979–2017. The analysis shows that 1) these products do not provide a consistent representation of the behavior of extremes as quantified by the tail heaviness, 2) there is strong spatial variability in the tail index, 3) the spatial patterns of the tail heaviness generally match the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, and 4) the predicted return levels for 100 and 1000 years differ significantly among the gridded products. More generally, our findings reveal shortcomings of global precipitation products in representing extremes and highlight that there is no single global product that performs best for all regions and climates.

Abstract. A sensor comprised of an electronic circuit and a hybrid single and dual heat pulse probe was constructed and tested along with a novel signal processing procedure to determine changes in the effective dual-probe spacing radius over the time of measurement. The circuit utilized a proportional–integral–derivative (PID) controller to control heat inputs into the soil medium in lieu of a variable resistor. The system was designed for onboard signal processing and implemented USB, RS-232, and SDI-12 interfaces for machine-to-machine (M2M) exchange of data, thereby enabling heat inputs to be adjusted to soil conditions and data availability shortly after the time of experiment. Signal processing was introduced to provide a simplified single-probe model to determine thermal conductivity instead of reliance on late-time logarithmic curve fitting. Homomorphic and derivative filters were used with a dual-probe model to detect changes in the effective probe spacing radius over the time of experiment to compensate for physical changes in radius as well as model and experimental error. Theoretical constraints were developed for an efficient inverse of the exponential integral on an embedded system. Application of the signal processing to experiments on sand and peat improved the estimates of soil water content and bulk density compared to methods of curve fitting nominally used for heat pulse probe experiments. Applications of the technology may be especially useful for soil and environmental conditions under which effective changes in probe spacing radius need to be detected and compensated for over the time of experiment.

Abstract. Climate change is anticipated to impact the hydrology of the Saskatchewan River, which originates in the Canadian Rockies mountain range. To better understand the climate change impacts in the mountain headwaters of this basin, a physically based hydrological model was developed for this basin using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) for Marmot Creek Research Basin (∼9.4 km2), located in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rockies. Marmot Creek is composed of ecozones ranging from montane forests to alpine tundra and alpine exposed rock and includes both large and small clearcuts. The model included blowing and intercepted snow redistribution, sublimation, energy-balance snowmelt, slope and canopy effects on melt, Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration, infiltration to frozen and unfrozen soils, hillslope hydrology, streamflow routing, and groundwater components and was parameterised without calibration from streamflow. Near-surface outputs from the 4 km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were bias-corrected using the quantile delta mapping method with respect to meteorological data from five stations located from low-elevation montane forests to alpine ridgetops and running over October 2005–September 2013. The bias-corrected WRF outputs during a current period (2005–2013) and a future pseudo global warming period (PGW, 2091–2099) were used to drive model simulations to assess changes in Marmot Creek's hydrology. Under a “business-as-usual” forcing scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) in PGW, the basin will warm up by 4.7 ∘C and receive 16 % more precipitation, which will lead to a 40 mm decline in seasonal peak snowpack, 84 mm decrease in snowmelt volume, 0.2 mm d−1 slower melt rate, and 49 d shorter snow-cover duration. The alpine snow season will be shortened by almost 1.5 months, but at some lower elevations there will be large decreases in peak snowpack (∼45 %) in addition to a shorter snow season. Declines in the peak snowpack will be much greater in clearcuts than under mature forest canopies. In alpine and treeline ecozones, blowing snow transport and sublimation will be suppressed by higher-threshold wind speeds for transport, in forest ecozones, sublimation losses from intercepted snow will decrease due to faster unloading and drip, and throughout the basin, evapotranspiration will increase due to a longer snow-free season and more rainfall. Runoff will begin earlier in all ecozones, but, as a result of variability in surface and subsurface hydrology, forested and alpine ecozones will generate the greatest runoff volumetric increases, ranging from 12 % to 25 %, whereas the treeline ecozone will have a small (2 %) decrease in runoff volume due to decreased melt volumes from smaller snowdrifts. The shift in timing in streamflow will be notable, with 236 % higher flows in spring months and 12 % lower flows in summer and 13 % higher flows in early fall. Overall, Marmot Creek's annual streamflow discharge will increase by 18 % with PGW, without a change in its streamflow generation efficiency, despite its basin shifting from primarily snowmelt runoff towards rainfall-dominated runoff generation.

Abstract. Blowing snow transport has considerable impact on the hydrological cycle in alpine regions both through the redistribution of the seasonal snowpack and through sublimation back into the atmosphere. Alpine energy and mass balances are typically modeled with time-averaged approximations of sensible and latent heat fluxes. This oversimplifies nonstationary turbulent mixing in complex terrain and may overlook important exchange processes for hydrometeorological prediction. To determine if specific turbulent motions are responsible for warm- and dry-air advection during blowing snow events, quadrant analysis and variable interval time averaging was used to investigate turbulent time series from the Fortress Mountain Snow Laboratory alpine study site in the Canadian Rockies, Alberta, Canada, during the winter of 2015–2016. By analyzing wind velocity and sonic temperature time series with concurrent blowing snow, such turbulent motions were found to supply substantial sensible heat to near-surface wind flows. These motions were responsible for temperature fluctuations of up to 1 ∘C, a considerable change for energy balance estimation. A simple scaling relationship was derived that related the frequency of dominant downdraft and updraft events to their duration and local variance. This allows for the first parameterization of entrained or advected energy for time-averaged representations of blowing snow sublimation and suggests that advection can strongly reduce thermodynamic feedbacks between blowing snow sublimation and the near-surface atmosphere. The downdraft and updraft scaling relationship described herein provides a significant step towards a more physically based blowing snow sublimation model with more realistic mixing of atmospheric heat. Additionally, calculations of return frequencies and event durations provide a field-measurement context for recent findings of nonstationarity impacts on sublimation rates.

Abstract. The 30-year simulations of seasonal snow cover in 22 physically based models driven with bias-corrected meteorological reanalyses are examined at four sites with long records of snow observations. Annual snow cover durations differ widely between models, but interannual variations are strongly correlated because of the common driving data. No significant trends are observed in starting dates for seasonal snow cover, but there are significant trends towards snow cover ending earlier at two of the sites in observations and most of the models. A simplified model with just two parameters controlling solar radiation and sensible heat contributions to snowmelt spans the ranges of snow cover durations and trends. This model predicts that sites where snow persists beyond annual peaks in solar radiation and air temperature will experience rapid decreases in snow cover duration with warming as snow begins to melt earlier and at times of year with more energy available for melting.

Abstract. Hydrological processes are widely understood to be sensitive to changes in climate, but the effects of changes in vegetation and soils have seldom been considered. The response of mountain hydrology to future climate and vegetation/soil changes is modelled in three snowmelt dominated mountain basins in the North American Cordillera. A Cold Regions Hydrological Model developed for each basin was driven with perturbed observed meteorological time series. Monthly perturbations were developed from differences in eleven regional climate model outputs between the present and future scenarios. Future climate change in these basins results in decreased modelled peak snow water equivalent (SWE) but increased evapotranspiration in all basins. All three watersheds became more rainfall-dominated. In Wolf Creek in the Yukon Territory, an insignificant increasing effect of vegetation change on peak SWE was found to be important enough to offset the significant climate change effect on alpine snow. In Marmot Creek in the Canadian Rockies, a combined effect of soil and climate changes on increasing annual runoff becomes significant while their individual effects are not statistically significant. In the relatively warmer Reynolds Mountain East catchment in Idaho, USA, only vegetation change decreases annual runoff volume and changes in soil, climate, or combination of them do not affect runoff. At high elevations in Wolf and Marmot Creeks, modelled vegetation/soil changes moderated the impact of climate change on peak SWE, the timing of peak SWE, evapotranspiration, and annual runoff volume. At medium elevations, these changes intensified the impact of climate change, decreasing peak SWE, and sublimation. The modelled hydrological impacts of changes in climate, vegetation, and soil in mountain environments are similar in magnitude but not consistently in the direction in all biomes; in some combinations, this results in enhanced impacts at lower elevations and latitudes and offsetting effects at higher elevations and latitudes.

Abstract. A set of hydrometeorological data is presented in this paper, which can be used to characterize the hydrometeorology and climate of a subarctic mountain basin and has proven particularly useful for forcing hydrological models and assessing their performance in capturing hydrological processes in subarctic alpine environments. The forcing dataset includes daily precipitation, hourly air temperature, humidity, wind, solar and net radiation, soil temperature, and geographical information system data. The model performance assessment data include snow depth and snow water equivalent, streamflow, soil moisture, and water level in a groundwater well. This dataset was recorded at different elevation bands in Wolf Creek Research Basin, near Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada, representing forest, shrub tundra, and alpine tundra biomes from 1993 through 2014. Measurements continue through 2018 and are planned for the future at this basin and will be updated to the data website. The database presented and described in this article is available for download at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0113.

Abstract. Land surface evaporation has considerable spatial variability that is not captured by point-scale estimates calculated from meteorological data alone. Knowing how evaporation varies spatially remains an important issue for improving parameterisations of land surface schemes and hydrological models and various land management practices. Satellite-based and aerial remote sensing has been crucial for capturing moderate- to larger-scale surface variables to indirectly estimate evaporative fluxes. However, more recent advances for field research via unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) now allow for the acquisition of more highly detailed surface data. Integrating models that can estimate “actual” evaporation from higher-resolution imagery and surface reference data would be valuable to better examine potential impacts of local variations in evaporation on upscaled estimates. This study introduces a novel approach for computing a normalised ratiometric index from surface variables that can be used to obtain more-realistic distributed estimates of actual evaporation. For demonstration purposes the Granger–Gray evaporation model (Granger and Gray, 1989) was applied at a rolling prairie agricultural site in central Saskatchewan, Canada. Visible and thermal images and meteorological reference data required to parameterise the model were obtained at midday. Ratiometric indexes were computed for the key surface variables albedo and net radiation at midday. This allowed point observations of albedo and mean daily net radiation to be scaled across high-resolution images over a large study region. Albedo and net radiation estimates were within 5 %–10 % of measured values. A daily evaporation estimate for a grassed surface was 0.5 mm (23 %) larger than eddy covariance measurements. Spatial variations in key factors driving evaporation and their impacts on upscaled evaporation estimates are also discussed. The methods applied have two key advantages for estimating evaporation over previous remote-sensing approaches: (1) detailed daily estimates of actual evaporation can be directly obtained using a physically based evaporation model, and (2) analysis of more-detailed and more-reliable evaporation estimates may lead to improved methods for upscaling evaporative fluxes to larger areas.

Abstract. Hydrological processes are widely understood to be sensitive to changes in climate, but the effects of concomitant changes in vegetation and soils have seldom been considered in snow-dominated mountain basins. The response of mountain hydrology to vegetation/soil changes in the present and a future climate was modeled in three snowmelt-dominated mountain basins in the North American Cordillera. The models developed for each basin using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modeling platform employed current and expected changes to vegetation and soil parameters and were driven with recent and perturbed high-altitude meteorological observations. Monthly perturbations were calculated using the differences in outputs between the present- and a future-climate scenario from 11 regional climate models. In the three basins, future climate change alone decreased the modeled peak snow water equivalent (SWE) by 11 %–47 % and increased the modeled evapotranspiration by 14 %–20 %. However, including future changes in vegetation and soil for each basin changed or reversed these climate change outcomes. In Wolf Creek in the Yukon Territory, Canada, a statistically insignificant increase in SWE due to vegetation increase in the alpine zone was found to offset the statistically significant decrease in SWE due to climate change. In Marmot Creek in the Canadian Rockies, the increase in annual runoff due to the combined effect of soil and climate change was statistically significant, whereas their individual effects were not. In the relatively warmer Reynolds Mountain in Idaho, USA, vegetation change alone decreased the annual runoff volume by 8 %, but changes in soil, climate, or both did not affect runoff. At high elevations in Wolf and Marmot creeks, the model results indicated that vegetation/soil changes moderated the impact of climate change on peak SWE, the timing of peak SWE, evapotranspiration, and the annual runoff volume. However, at medium elevations, these changes intensified the impact of climate change, further decreasing peak SWE and sublimation. The hydrological impacts of changes in climate, vegetation, and soil in mountain environments were similar in magnitude but not consistent in direction for all biomes; in some combinations, this resulted in enhanced impacts at lower elevations and latitudes and moderated impacts at higher elevations and latitudes.

Snow water equivalent (SWE) is one of the most hydrologically important physical properties of a snowpack. The U.S. National Weather Service's Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) provides snow products at high spatial (~1 km2) and temporal (daily) resolution for the contiguous United States and southern Canada. This study evaluated the SNODAS SWE product in the boreal forest, prairie, and Canadian Rockies of western Canada against extensive snow survey measurements. SNODAS was found to work well in sheltered environments, to overestimate SWE under needle‐leaf forests, and to be unable to capture the spatial variation of SWE in windswept prairie and alpine environments. Results indicate that SNODAS SWE accuracy is strongly influenced by the missing blowing snow redistribution and canopy energetics and snow interception and sublimation processes in the mass balance calculations of the SNODAS model and by erroneous precipitation data forcing the model. To demonstrate how errors caused by missing processes can be corrected in areas with low assimilation frequency, SNODAS data were assimilated into a physically based hydrological model created using the modular Cold Region Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform that includes blowing and intercepted snow redistribution and subcanopy melt energetic processes. This approach decreased the overestimation of SWE compared to SNODAS from 135 to 79% in the study area and suggests that snow assimilation modeled SWE quality can be improved if snow redistribution, sublimation, and subcanopy melt processes are incorporated.

Seasonal snowcovers release nutrients accumulated over the winter during spring snowmelt and this can be an important part of the annual biogeochemical cycling of chemicals and their loading to soils and water bodies. The characteristics of this load are controlled by snowmelt dynamics and the physical and chemical properties of the snowpack, which are affected by overwinter and snowmelt metamorphism, refreezing of meltwater, and ion exclusion from snow crystals. Rain-on-snow (ROS) events can accelerate and modify the snowpack discharge process. The interplay of these processes can cause microscale flow heterogeneity and preferential flow pathways (PFP). Previous experimental work has examined PFP and ion elution processes in snowpacks, but their combined effect on the spatial and temporal characteristics of snowmelt ion elution remains uncertain. In this research, two controlled laboratory experiments were performed to investigate the role of PFP and ROS in controlling snow ion release to runoff. These involved the high frequency monitoring of flow and meltwater concentrations during snowmelt induced by radiation-convection (RC) processes and rain-on-snow (ROS). Results showed that when ROS was included, PFP was responsible for the transport of 68% and 73% of the total NO3 and PO4 load discharged during the early snowmelt phase recorded by the experiment. However, this initial load increased to 95% and 75% when ROS was removed, causing the release of more than 20% of the total snowpack NO3 and PO4 during the first 1.5% of melt. Small intensity ROS may refreeze in the snowpack, which may affect the ability of lateral flow to deliver snow ions located beyond the leading edge of PFP.

There is great interest in modelling the export of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from agricultural fields because of ongoing challenges of eutrophication. However, the use of existing hydrochemistry models can be problematic in cold regions because models frequently employ incomplete or conceptually incorrect representations of the dominant cold regions hydrological processes and are overparameterized, often with insufficient data for validation. Here, a process‐based N model, WINTRA, which is coupled to a physically based cold regions hydrological model, was expanded to simulate P and account for overwinter soil nutrient biochemical cycling. An inverse modelling approach, using this model with consideration of parameter equifinality, was applied to an intensively monitored agricultural basin in Manitoba, Canada, to help identify the main climate, soil, and anthropogenic controls on nutrient export. Consistent with observations, the model results suggest that snow water equivalent, melt rate, snow cover depletion rate, and contributing area for run‐off generation determine the opportunity time and surface area for run‐off–soil interaction. These physical controls have not been addressed in existing models. Results also show that the time lag between the start of snowmelt and the arrival of peak nutrient concentration in run‐off increased with decreasing antecedent soil moisture content, highlighting potential implications of frozen soils on run‐off processes and hydrochemistry. The simulations showed TDP concentration peaks generally arriving earlier than NO₃ but also decreasing faster afterwards, which suggests a significant contribution of plant residue Total dissolved Phosphorus (TDP) to early snowmelt run‐off. Antecedent fall tillage and fertilizer application increased TDP concentrations in spring snowmelt run‐off but did not consistently affect NO₃ run‐off. In this case, the antecedent soil moisture content seemed to have had a dominant effect on overwinter soil N biogeochemical processes such as mineralization, which are often ignored in models. This work demonstrates both the need for better representation of cold regions processes in hydrochemical models and the model improvements that are possible if these are included.

Abstract. Meteorological, snow survey, streamflow, and groundwater data are presented from Marmot Creek Research Basin, Alberta, Canada. The basin is a 9.4 km2, alpine–montane forest headwater catchment of the Saskatchewan River basin that provides vital water supplies to the Prairie Provinces of Canada. It was heavily instrumented, experimented upon, and operated by several federal government agencies between 1962 and 1986, during which time its main and sub-basin streams were gauged, automated meteorological stations at multiple elevations were installed, groundwater observation wells were dug and automated, and frequent manual measurements of snow accumulation and ablation and other weather and water variables were made. Over this period, mature evergreen forests were harvested in two sub-basins, leaving large clear cuts in one basin and a “honeycomb” of small forest clearings in another basin. Whilst meteorological measurements and sub-basin streamflow discharge weirs in the basin were removed in the late 1980s, the federal government maintained the outlet streamflow discharge measurements and a nearby high-elevation meteorological station, and the Alberta provincial government maintained observation wells and a nearby fire weather station. Marmot Creek Research Basin was intensively re-instrumented with 12 automated meteorological stations, four sub-basin hydrometric sites, and seven snow survey transects starting in 2004 by the University of Saskatchewan Centre for Hydrology. The observations provide detailed information on meteorology, precipitation, soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, and groundwater during the historical period from 1962 to 1987 and the modern period from 2005 to the present time. These data are ideal for monitoring climate change, developing hydrological process understanding, evaluating process algorithms and hydrological, cryospheric, or atmospheric models, and examining the response of basin hydrological cycling to changes in climate, extreme weather, and land cover through hydrological modelling and statistical analyses. The data presented are publicly available from Federated Research Data Repository (https://doi.org/10.20383/101.09, Fang et al., 2018).

Abstract. Local-scale advection of energy from warm snow-free surfaces to cold snow-covered surfaces is an important component of the energy balance during snow-cover depletion. Unfortunately, this process is difficult to quantify in one-dimensional snowmelt models. This paper proposes a simple sensible and latent heat advection model for snowmelt situations that can be readily coupled to one-dimensional energy balance snowmelt models. An existing advection parameterization was coupled to a conceptual frozen soil infiltration surface water retention model to estimate the areal average sensible and latent heat advection contributions to snowmelt. The proposed model compared well with observations of latent and sensible heat advection, providing confidence in the process parameterizations and the assumptions applied. Snow-covered area observations from unmanned aerial vehicle imagery were used to update and evaluate the scaling properties of snow patch area distribution and lengths. Model dynamics and snowmelt implications were explored within an idealized modelling experiment, by coupling to a one-dimensional energy balance snowmelt model. Dry, snow-free surfaces were associated with advection of dry air that compensated for positive sensible heat advection fluxes and so limited the net influence of advection on snowmelt. Latent and sensible heat advection fluxes both contributed positive fluxes to snow when snow-free surfaces were wet and enhanced net advection contributions to snowmelt. The increased net advection fluxes from wet surfaces typically develop towards the end of snowmelt and offset decreases in the one-dimensional areal average melt energy that declines with snow-covered area. The new model can be readily incorporated into existing one-dimensional snowmelt hydrology and land surface scheme models and will foster improvements in snowmelt understanding and predictions.

Abstract The rapidly warming Arctic is experiencing permafrost degradation and shrub expansion. Future climate projections show a clear increase in mean annual temperature and increasing precipitation in the Arctic; however, the impact of these changes on hydrological cycling in Arctic headwater basins is poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of climate change, as represented by simulations using a high-resolution atmospheric model under a pseudo-global-warming configuration, and projected changes in vegetation, using a spatially distributed and physically based Arctic hydrological model, on a small headwater basin at the tundra–taiga transition in northwestern Canada. Climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario show a 6.1°C warming, a 38% increase in annual precipitation, and a 19 W m−2 increase in all-wave annual irradiance over the twenty-first century. Hydrological modeling results suggest a shift in hydrological processes with maximum peak snow accumulation increasing by 70%, snow-cover duration shortening by 26 days, active layer deepening by 0.25 m, evapotranspiration increasing by 18%, and sublimation decreasing by 9%. This results in an intensification of the hydrological regime by doubling discharge volume, a 130% increase in spring runoff, and earlier and larger peak streamflow. Most hydrological changes were found to be driven by climate change; however, increasing vegetation cover and density reduced blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, and increased evaporation from intercepted rainfall. This study provides the first detailed investigation of projected changes in climate and vegetation on the hydrology of an Arctic headwater basin, and so it is expected to help inform larger-scale climate impact studies in the Arctic.

The timing and magnitude of snowmelt discharge and subsequent runoff are controlled by both matrix and preferential flows of water through snowpacks. Matrix flow can be estimated using the Richards equation, and recently, preferential flow in snowpacks has been represented in 2D and 3D models. A challenge for representing preferential flow through porous media in 2D or 3D is capillary pressure overshoot in 1D. Soil studies have developed sophisticated and largely realistic approaches to represent capillary pressure overshoot, but it has not been addressed in snowpack water flow models. Here a 1D nonequilibrium Richards equation model is implemented with dynamic capillary pressure and is combined with a new concept of entrapment of liquid water within the pore space. This new model well represented capillary pressure overshoot, as estimated by published capillary pressure measurements in snow samples of various grain sizes under different rates of liquid water infiltration. Three model parameters were calibrated, and their impacts on model outputs were evaluated. This improvement is a substantial step toward better understanding and simulating physical processes occurring while liquid water percolates an initially dry snowpack.

Abstract Snow interception in cold regions needleleaf forest canopies is a crucial process that controls local snow accumulation and redistribution over >20% of the Earth's land surface. Various ground-based methods exist to measure intercepted snow load, however all are based on single-tree measurements and are difficult to implement. No research has focussed on detecting large areal intercepted snow loads and no studies have assessed the use of satellite observations. In this study, four remote sensing indices (NDSI, NDVI, albedo, and land surface temperature (LST)) were retrieved from Landsat images to study their sensitivity to canopy intercepted snow and the possibility of using them to detect the presence of intercepted snow. The results indicate that presence of intercepted snow on canopy increased NDSI and albedo, but decreased NDVI. Intercepted snow presence also decreased the areal variability of NDSI and NDVI while increasing that of albedo. For these three indices, the differences between snow-free and snowcovered canopies were correlated to topography and forest canopy cover. Of these indices, NDSI changed the greatest. Intercepted snow noticeably decreased the LST difference between forest and open areas in springtime while the influence in wintertime was relatively smaller. An intercepted snow detection approach that uses both NDSI and NDVI to classify pixels into either snowcovered canopy or other (snow-free canopy and non-forest areas) is proposed here. A case study applying this approach compared remote sensing detection to simulations by the snow interception and sublimation model implemented in the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM). This used local meteorological observations from the pine, spruce and fir forest covered Marmot Creek Research Basin in the Canadian Rockies. The remote sensing detection of intercepted snow agreed well with CRHM simulations for continuous forests (83%) and less well for sparse forests (72%) and clearings with small trees (70%). Therefore, the approach is suitable for intercepted snow detection over continuous evergreen canopies. This technique provides a new capability for large-scale snow interception model validation and data assimilation to cold regions hydrological forecasting models.

Abstract How mountain hydrology at different elevations will respond to climate change is a challenging question of great importance to assessing changing water resources. Here, three North American Cordilleran snow-dominated basins—Wolf Creek, Yukon; Marmot Creek, Alberta; and Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho—each with good meteorological and hydrological records, were modeled using the physically based, spatially distributed Cold Regions Hydrological Model. Model performance was verified using field observations and found adequate for diagnostic analysis. To diagnose the effects of future climate, the monthly temperature and precipitation changes projected for the future by 11 regional climate models for the mid-twenty-first century were added to the observed meteorological time series. The modeled future was warmer and wetter, increasing the rainfall fraction of precipitation and shifting all three basins toward rainfall–runoff hydrology. This shift was largest at lower elevations and in the relatively warmer Reynolds Mountain East. In the warmer future, there was decreased blowing snow transport, snow interception and sublimation, peak snow accumulation, and melt rates, and increased evapotranspiration and the duration of the snow-free season. Annual runoff in these basins did not change despite precipitation increases, warming, and an increased prominence of rainfall over snowfall. Reduced snow sublimation offset reduced snowfall amounts, and increased evapotranspiration offset increased rainfall amounts. The hydrological uncertainty due to variation among climate models was greater than the predicted hydrological changes. While the results of this study can be used to assess the vulnerability and resiliency of water resources that are dependent on mountain snow, stakeholders and water managers must make decisions under considerable uncertainty, which this paper illustrates.

Permafrost degradation in the peat‐rich southern fringe of the discontinuous permafrost zone is catalysing substantial changes to land cover with expansion of permafrost‐free wetlands (bogs and fens) and shrinkage of forest‐dominated permafrost peat plateaux. Predicting discharge from headwater basins in this region depends upon understanding and numerically representing the interactions between storage and discharge within and between the major land cover types and how these interactions are changing. To better understand the implications of advanced permafrost thaw‐induced land cover change on wetland discharge, with all landscape features capable of contributing to drainage networks, the hydrological behaviour of a channel fen sub‐basin in the headwaters of Scotty Creek, Northwest Territories, Canada, dominated by peat plateau–bog complexes, was modelled using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform for the period of 2009 to 2015. The model construction was based on field water balance observations, and performance was deemed adequate when evaluated against measured water balance components. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of progressive permafrost loss on discharge from the sub‐basin, in which all units of the sub‐basin have the potential to contribute to the drainage network, by incrementally reducing the ratio of wetland to plateau in the modelled sub‐basin. Simulated reductions in permafrost extent decreased total annual discharge from the channel fen by 2.5% for every 10% decrease in permafrost area due to increased surface storage capacity, reduced run‐off efficiency, and increased landscape evapotranspiration. Runoff ratios for the fen hydrological response unit dropped from 0.54 to 0.48 after the simulated 50% permafrost area loss with a substantial reduction of 0.47 to 0.31 during the snowmelt season. The reduction in peat plateau area resulted in decreased seasonal variability in discharge due to changes in the flow path routing, with amplified low flows associated with small increases in subsurface discharge, and decreased peak discharge with large reductions in surface run‐off.

Peatlands in the Western Boreal Plains act as important water sources in the landscape. Their persistence, despite potential evapotranspiration (PET) often exceeding annual precipitation, is attributed to various water storage mechanisms. One storage element that has been understudied is seasonal ground ice (SGI). This study characterized spring SGI conditions and explored its impacts on available energy, actual evapotranspiration, water table, and near surface soil moisture in a western boreal plains peatland. The majority of SGI melt took place over May 2017. Microtopography had limited impact on melt rates due to wet conditions. SGI melt released 139mm in ice water equivalent (IWE) within the top 30cm of the peat, and weak significant relationships with water table and surface moisture suggest that SGI could be important for maintaining vegetation transpiration during dry springs. Melting SGI decreased available energy causing small reductions in PET (<10mm over the melt period) and appeared to reduce actual evapotranspiration variability but not mean rates, likely due to slow melt rates. This suggests that melting SGI supplies water, allowing evapotranspiration to occur at near potential rates, but reduces the overall rate at which evapotranspiration could occur (PET). The role of SGI may help peatlands in headwater catchments act as a conveyor of water to downstream landscapes during the spring while acting as a supply of water for the peatland. Future work should investigate SGI influences on evapotranspiration under differing peatland types, wet and dry spring conditions, and if the spatial variability of SGI melt leads to spatial variability in evapotranspiration.

Spring snowmelt is the most important hydrological event in agricultural cold regions, recharging soil moisture and generating the majority of annual runoff. Melting agricultural snowcovers are pat...

Abstract Blowing snow particle transport responds to wind motions across many length and time scales. This coupling is nonlinear by nature and complicated in atmospheric flows where eddies of many sizes are superimposed. In mountainous terrain, wind flow descriptions are further complicated by topographically influenced or enhanced flows. To improve the current understanding and modeling of blowing snow transport in complex terrain, statistically significant timing and frequencies of wind–snow coupling were identified in high-frequency observations of surface blowing snow and near-surface turbulence from a mountain field site in the Canadian Rockies. Investigation of the mechanisms influencing near-surface, high-frequency turbulence and snow concentration fluctuations provided strong evidence for amplitude modulation from large-scale motions. The large-scale atmospheric motions modulating near-surface turbulence and snow transport were then compared to specific quadrant analysis structures recently identified as relevant for outdoor blowing snow transport. The results suggest that large atmospheric structures modulate the amplitude of high-frequency turbulence and modify turbulence statistics typically used to model blowing snow. Additionally, blowing snow was preferentially redistributed under the footprint of these same sweep motions, with both low- and high-frequency coherence increasing in their presence.

Abstract Forest clearings are common features of evergreen forests and produce snowpack accumulation and melt differing from that in adjacent forests and open terrain. This study has investigated the challenges in specifying the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat to snowpacks in forest clearings. The snowpack in two forest clearings in the Canadian Rockies was simulated using a one-dimensional (1D) snowpack model. A trade-off was found between optimizing against measured snow surface temperature or snowmelt when choosing how to specify the turbulent fluxes. Schemes using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory tended to produce negatively biased surface temperature, while schemes that enhanced turbulent fluxes, to reduce the surface temperature bias, resulted in too much melt. Uncertainty estimates from Monte Carlo experiments showed that no realistic parameter set could successfully remove biases in both surface temperature and melt. A simple scheme that excludes atmospheric stability correction was required to successfully simulate surface temperature under low wind speed conditions. Nonturbulent advective fluxes and/or nonlocal sources of turbulence are thought to account for the maintenance of heat exchange in low-wind conditions. The simulation of snowmelt was improved by allowing enhanced latent heat fluxes during low-wind conditions. Caution is warranted when snowpack models are optimized on surface temperature, as model tuning may compensate for deficiencies in conceptual and numerical models of radiative, conductive, and turbulent heat exchange at the snow surface and within the snowpack. Such model tuning could have large impacts on the melt rate and timing of the snow-free transition in simulations of forest clearings within hydrological and meteorological models.

Abstract Early ionic pulse during spring snowmelt can account for a significant portion of the total annual nutrient load in seasonally snow-covered areas. Ionic pulses are a consequence of snow grain core to surface ion segregation during metamorphism, a process commonly referred to as ion exclusion. While numerous studies have provided quantitative measurements of this phenomenon, very few process-based mathematical models have been proposed for diagnostic and prognostic investigations. A few early modelling attempts have been successful in capturing this process assuming transport through porous media with variable porosity. However, this process is represented in models in ways that misalign with the mechanistic view of the process described in the literature. In this research, a process-based model is proposed that can simulated ionic pulses in runoff by emulating solute leaching from snow grains during melt and the subsequent vertical solute transport by meltwater through the snowpack. To facilitate its use without the need for snow-physics’ models, simplified alternative methods are proposed to estimate some of the variables required by the model. The model was applied to two regions, and a total of 4 study sites, that are subject to significantly different winter climatic and hydrological conditions. Comparison between observations and simulation results suggest that the model can capture well the overall snow melt runoff concentration pattern, including both the timing and magnitude of the early melt ionic pulse. The model enables the prediction of concentration profiles of the dry (snow) and liquid (wet) fractions within the snow matrix for the first time. Although there is a computational cost associated with the proposed modelling framework, this study demonstrates that it can provide more detailed information about the reallocation and transport of ions through snowpacks, which can ultimately be used to improve nutrient transport predictions during snowmelt.

Abstract On the Canadian Prairies, agricultural practices result in millions of hectares of standing crop stubble that gradually emerges during snowmelt. The importance of stubble in trapping wind-blown snow and retaining winter snowfall has been well demonstrated. However, stubble is not explicitly accounted for in hydrological or energy balance snowmelt models. This paper relates measurable stubble parameters (height, width, areal density, and albedo) to the snowpack energy balance and snowmelt with the new, physically based Stubble–Snow–Atmosphere Model (SSAM). Novel process representations of SSAM quantify the attenuation of shortwave radiation by exposed stubble, the sky and vegetation view factors needed to solve longwave radiation terms, and a resistance scheme for stubble–snow–atmosphere fluxes to solve for surface temperatures and turbulent fluxes. SSAM results were compared to observations of radiometric snow-surface temperature, stubble temperature, snow-surface solar irradiance, areal-average turbulent fluxes, and snow water equivalent from two intensive field campaigns during snowmelt in 2015 and 2016 over wheat and canola stubble in Saskatchewan, Canada. Uncalibrated SSAM simulations compared well with these observations, providing confidence in the model structure and parameterization. A sensitivity analysis conducted using SSAM revealed compensatory relationships in energy balance terms that result in a small increase in net snowpack energy as stubble exposure increases.

‘I would walk to the end of the street and out over the prairie with the clickety grasshoppers bunging in arcs ahead of me and I could hear the hum and twang of the wind in the great prairie harp o...

Abstract. The impact of transient changes in climate and vegetation on the hydrology of small Arctic headwater basins has not been investigated before, particularly in the tundra–taiga transition region. This study uses weather and land cover observations and a hydrological model suitable for cold regions to investigate historical changes in modelled hydrological processes driving the streamflow response of a small Arctic basin at the treeline. The physical processes found in this environment and explicit changes in vegetation extent and density were simulated and validated against observations of streamflow discharge, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness. Mean air temperature and all-wave irradiance have increased by 3.7 ∘C and 8.4 W m−2, respectively, while precipitation has decreased 48 mm (10 %) since 1960. Two modelling scenarios were created to separate the effects of changing climate and vegetation on hydrological processes. Results show that over 1960–2016 most hydrological changes were driven by climate changes, such as decreasing snowfall, evapotranspiration, deepening active layer thickness, earlier snow cover depletion and diminishing annual sublimation and soil moisture. However, changing vegetation has a significant impact on decreasing blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, counteracting the impact of decreasing precipitation on streamflow, demonstrating the importance of including transient changes in vegetation in long-term hydrological studies. Streamflow dropped by 38 mm as a response to the 48 mm decrease in precipitation, suggesting a small degree of hydrological resiliency. These results represent the first detailed estimate of hydrological changes occurring in small Arctic basins, and can be used as a reference to inform other studies of Arctic climate change impacts.

Abstract Chinooks are the North American variety of foehn: strong, warm and dry winds that descend lee mountain slopes. The strong wind speeds, high temperatures and substantial humidity deficits have been hypothesized to remove important prairie near-surface water storage from agricultural fields via evaporation, sublimation and blowing snow, as well as change the phase of near surface water via snowmelt and ground thaw. This paper presents observations of surface energy and water balances from eddy covariance instrumentation deployed at three open sites in southern Alberta, Canada during winter 2011–2012. Energy balances, snow and soil moisture budgets of three select chinook events were analysed in detail. These three events ranged in duration from two to nine days, and are representative of winter through early spring chinooks. Precipitation data from gauges and reanalyses (CaPA and ERA-interim) were used to assess water balances. Variations in precipitation and snowpacks caused the greatest differences in energy and water balances. Cumulative winter precipitation varied by a factor of two over the three sites: heaviest at the more northern site immediately east of the Rocky Mountains and lightest at the easternmost and southernmost site. The temporal progression of chinook-driven surface water loss is explained, beginning with strong blowing snow events through to evaporation of meltwater as snowpacks disappear. At the two sites with considerable winter precipitation and snowcover, large upward latent heat fluxes, often exceeding 100 W m−2, were driven by downward sensible heat fluxes but were unrelated to net radiation. Conversely, at the southernmost site with little snowcover, upward latent heat fluxes were much smaller (less than 50 W m−2) and were associated with periods of positive net radiation. Upward sensible heat fluxes during periods of positive net radiation were observed at this site throughout winter, but were not observed at the more northerly sites until March when the snowcovers ablated. Daily sublimation plus evaporation rates during chinooks at the sites with heaviest and lightest precipitation were 1.3–2.1 mm/day and 0.1–0.3 mm/day, respectively. Evaporation of soil water occurred while soils were partially to fully unfrozen in November. There was little change in soil water content between fall freeze-up and spring thaw (December through most of March), indicating that over-winter infiltration was balanced by soil water evaporation and both terms were likely to be small. Winter precipitation resulted in only 2% to 4% increases in near-surface water storage at the more northern sites with greater precipitation, whereas there was a net loss over winter at the southernmost site.

Abstract Unstructured triangular meshes are an efficient and effective landscape representation that are suitable for use in distributed hydrological and land surface models. Their variable spatial resolution provides similar spatial performance to high-resolution structured grids while using only a fraction of the number of elements. Many existing triangulation methods either sacrifice triangle quality to introduce variable resolution or maintain well-formed uniform meshes at the expense of variable triangle resolution. They are also generally constructed to only fulfil topographic constraints. However, distributed hydrological and land surface models require triangles of varying resolution to provide landscape representations that accurately represent the spatial heterogeneity of driving meteorology, physical parameters and process operation in the simulation domain. As such, mesh generators need to constrain the unstructured mesh to not only topography but to other important surface and sub-surface features. This work presents novel multi-objective unstructured mesh generation software that allows mesh generation to be constrained to an arbitrary number of important features while maintaining a variable spatial resolution. Triangle quality is supported as well as a smooth gradation from small to large triangles. Including these additional constraints results in a better representation of spatial heterogeneity than from classic topography-only constraints.

Abstract This paper applies a social return on investment (SROI) analysis to the issue of flood control and wetland conservation in the Smith Creek basin of southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada. Basin hydrological modeling applied to wetland loss and restoration scenarios in the study area provides local estimates of the ecosystem service (ES) provision related to flood control and nutrient removal. Locally appropriate monetary values are applied to these services to gauge the cost effectiveness of wetland conservation funding at two levels: flood control capacity alone and then incorporating a suite of ES. SROI ratios for flood control alone provide ratios between 3.17 (retention) and 0.80 (full restoration) over 30 years; when other ES are included, the ratios increase, ranging from 7.70 (retention) to 2.98 (full restoration) over 30 years. Retention of existing wetlands provides the highest SROI and therefore we argue that government policy should focus on preventing further loss of wetlands as a strategic investment opportunity. Overall, these results indicate that wetland retention is an economically viable solution to limit the financial, social and environmental damages of flooding in Saskatchewan specifically and the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) generally.

Abstract. Precipitation events that bring rain and snow to the Banff–Calgary area of Alberta are a critical aspect of the region's water cycle and can lead to major flooding events such as the June 2013 event that was the second most costly natural disaster in Canadian history. Because no special atmospheric-oriented observations of these events have been made, a field experiment was conducted in March and April 2015 in Kananaskis, Alberta, to begin to fill this gap. The goal was to characterize and better understand the formation of the precipitation at the surface during spring 2015 at a specific location in the Kananaskis Valley. Within the experiment, detailed measurements of precipitation and weather conditions were obtained, a vertically pointing Doppler radar was deployed and weather balloons were released. Although 17 precipitation events occurred, this period was associated with much less precipitation than normal (−35 %) and above-normal temperatures (2.5 ∘C). Of the 133 h of observed precipitation, solid precipitation occurred 71 % of the time, mixed precipitation occurred 9 % and rain occurred 20 %. An analysis of 17 504 precipitation particles from 1181 images showed that a wide variety of crystals and aggregates occurred and approximately 63 % showed signs of riming. This was largely independent of whether flows aloft were upslope (easterly) or downslope (westerly). In the often sub-saturated surface conditions, hydrometeors containing ice occurred at temperatures as high as 9 ∘C. Radar structures aloft were highly variable with reflectivity sometimes >30 dBZe and Doppler velocity up to −1 m s−1, which indicates upward motion of particles within ascending air masses. Precipitation was formed in this region within cloud fields sometimes having variable structures and within which supercooled water at least sometimes existed to produce accreted particles massive enough to reach the surface through the relatively dry sub-cloud region.

Abstract Horizontal and altitudinal redistribution of snow by wind transport and avalanches can be important controls on small- and large-scale snow accumulation patterns that control meltwater supply in alpine environments. Redistribution processes control the spatial variability of snow accumulation, which not only controls meltwater supply, but also regulates snowmelt timing, duration, and rates, as well as snow-covered area depletion and the variable contributing area for meltwater runoff generation. However, most hydrological models and land surface schemes do not consider snow redistribution processes, and those that do are difficult to verify without spatially distributed snow depth measurements. These are rarely available in both high resolution and covering large scales. As an increased number of hydrological models include snow redistribution processes there is a need for additional snowcover metrics to verify snow redistribution schemes over large areas using readily available data. This study develops novel high-resolution (20 m), snowcover indices from remotely sensed imagery (Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2) to evaluate snow redistribution models over alpine areas without in-situ or airborne snow observations. A snowcover absence (SA) index, calculated from snow-free areas during the winter, identifies areas of wind erosion or avalanche source areas. A snowcover persistence (SP) index, calculated from snow-covered areas during the summer, identifies snow deposition in drifts and avalanche deposits. The snowcover indices captured the relative differences in surface observations of snow presence and absence between exposed and sheltered sites on an intensely instrumented ridge in the Canadian Rockies Hydrological Observatory. Within the Tuolumne River Basin in central California (1100 km2), the SP index captured roughly half of the spatial variability (R2 = 0.49 to 0.56) in peak SWE as estimated from airborne LiDAR-derived snow depths. At the individual mountain ridge scale (~800 m), variability in both ablation and snow redistribution controlled the SP patterns over 7979 ridges. Differences in shortwave irradiance explained 76% of the SP variance across ridges, but could not explain smaller-scale (~100 m) SP peaks that are associated with snowdrifts and avalanche deposits. The snowcover indices can be used to evaluate snow redistribution models of the finer scale impacts of snow redistribution by wind and gravity as long as the larger scale influences of spatially variable solar irradiance effects are also simulated.

Abstract. This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local- and global-scale modelling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. Although it is not part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the CMIP6-endorsed Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison (LS3MIP).

While turbulent bursts are considered critical for blowing-snow transport and initiation, the interaction of the airflow with the snow surface is not fully understood. To better characterize the coupling of turbulent structures and blowing-snow transport, observations collected in natural environments at the necessary high-resolution time scales are needed. To address this, high-frequency measurements of turbulence, blowing-snow density and particle velocity were made in the Canadian Rockies. During blowing-snow storms, modified variable-interval time averaging enabled identification of periods of near-surface blowing-snow coupling with shear-stress-producing motions in the lowest 2 m of the atmospheric surface layer. The identification of those turbulent motions responsible for blowing snow yields a better understanding of the event-driven mechanics of initiation and sustained transport. The type of coherent structures generating the Reynolds stress are just as important as the magnitude of the Reynolds stress in initiating and sustaining near-surface blowing snow. Our results suggest that blowing-snow models driven by merely the time-averaged shear stress lack physical realism in the near-surface region. The next phase of the development of blowing-snow models should incorporate parametrizations of coherent turbulent structures.

Modeling nutrient transport during snowmelt in cold regions remains a major scientific challenge. A key limitation of existing nutrient models for application in cold regions is the inadequate representation of snowmelt, including hydrological and biogeochemical processes. This brief period can account for more than 80% of the total annual surface runoff in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Canada and processes such as atmospheric deposition, over-winter redistribution of snow, ion exclusion from snow crystals, frozen soils, and snowcovered area depletion during melt influence the distribution and release of snow and soil nutrients, thus affecting the timing and magnitude of snowmelt runoff nutrient concentrations.Research in cold regions suggests that nitrate (NO3) runoff at the field scale can be divided into five phases during snowmelt. In the first phase, water and ions originating from ion-rich snow layers travel and diffuse through the snowpack. This process causes ion concentrations in runoff to gradually increase. The second phase occurs when this snow ion meltwater front has reached the bottom of the snowpack and forms runoff to the edge-of-the-field (EOF). During the third and fourth phases, the main source of NO3 transitions from the snowpack to the soil. Finally, the fifth and last phase occurs when the snow has completely melted, and the thawing soil becomes the main source of NO3 to the stream.In this research, a process-based model was developed to simulate hourly export based on this five-phase approach. Results from an application in the Red River Basin of southern Manitoba, Canada shows that the model can adequately capture the dynamics and rapid changes of NO3 concentrations during this period at relevant temporal resolutions. This is a significant achievement to advance the current nutrient modeling paradigm in cold climates, which is generally limited to satisfactory results at monthly or annual resolutions. The approach can inform catchment-scale nutrient models to improve simulation of this critical snowmelt period.Nutrient exports Winter Snow Nitrate Agriculture Nutrient model

Abstract The spatial heterogeneity of mountain snow cover and ablation is important in controlling patterns of snow cover depletion (SCD), meltwater production, and runoff, yet is not well-represented in most large-scale hydrological models and land surface schemes. Analyses were conducted in this study to examine the influence of various representations of snow cover and melt energy heterogeneity on both simulated SCD and stream discharge from a small alpine basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Simulations were performed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM), where point-scale snowmelt computations were made using a snowpack energy balance formulation and applied to spatial frequency distributions of snow water equivalent (SWE) on individual slope-, aspect-, and landcover-based hydrological response units (HRUs) in the basin. Hydrological routines were added to represent the vertical and lateral transfers of water through the basin and channel system. From previous studies it is understood that the heterogeneity of late winter SWE is a primary control on patterns of SCD. The analyses here showed that spatial variation in applied melt energy, mainly due to differences in net radiation, has an important influence on SCD at multiple scales and basin discharge, and cannot be neglected without serious error in the prediction of these variables. A single basin SWE distribution using the basin-wide mean SWE ( SWE ‾ ) and coefficient of variation (CV; standard deviation/mean) was found to represent the fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of SWE sufficiently well. Simulations that accounted for differences in ( SWE ‾ ) among HRUs but neglected the sub-HRU heterogeneity of SWE were found to yield similar discharge results as simulations that included this heterogeneity, while SCD was poorly represented, even at the basin level. Finally, applying point-scale snowmelt computations based on a single SWE depth for each HRU (thereby neglecting spatial differences in internal snowpack energetics over the distributions) was found to yield similar SCD and discharge results as simulations that resolved internal energy differences. Spatial/internal snowpack melt energy effects are more pronounced at times earlier in spring before the main period of snowmelt and SCD, as shown in previously published work. The paper discusses the importance of these findings as they apply to the warranted complexity of snowmelt process simulation in cold mountain environments, and shows how the end-of-winter SWE distribution represents an effective means of resolving snow cover heterogeneity at multiple scales for modelling, even in steep and complex terrain.

The breakup of snow cover into patches during snowmelt leads to a dynamic, heterogeneous land surface composed of melting snow, and wet and dry soil and plant surfaces. Energy exchange with the atmosphere is therefore complicated by horizontal gradients in surface temperature and humidity as snow surface temperature and humidity are regulated by the phase change of melting snow unlike snow-free areas. Airflow across these surface transitions results in local-scale advection of energy that has been documented as sensible heat during snowmelt, while latent heat advection has received scant attention. Herein, results are presented from an experiment measuring near-surface profiles of air temperature and humidity across snow-free to snow-covered transitions that demonstrates that latent heat advection can be the same order of magnitude as sensible heat advection and is therefore an important source of snowmelt energy. Latent heat advection is conditional on an upwind source of water vapor from a wetted snow-free surface.

Abstract A better understanding of cold regions hydrological processes and regimes in transitional environments is critical for predicting future Arctic freshwater fluxes under climate and vegetation change. A physically based hydrological model using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model platform was created for a small Arctic basin in the tundra-taiga transition region. The model represents snow redistribution and sublimation by wind and vegetation, snowmelt energy budget, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow through organic terrain, infiltration to frozen soils, freezing and thawing of soils, permafrost and streamflow routing. The model was used to reconstruct the basin water cycle over 28 years to understand and quantify the mass fluxes controlling its hydrological regime. Model structure and parameters were set from the current understanding of Arctic hydrology, remote sensing, field research in the basin and region, and calibration against streamflow observations. Calibration was restricted to subsurface hydraulic and storage parameters. Multi-objective evaluation of the model using observed streamflow, snow accumulation and ground freeze/thaw state showed adequate simulation. Significant spatial variability in the winter mass fluxes was found between tundra, shrubs and forested sites, particularly due to the substantial blowing snow redistribution and sublimation from the wind-swept upper basin, as well as sublimation of canopy intercepted snow from the forest (about 17% of snowfall). At the basin scale, the model showed that evapotranspiration is the largest loss of water (47%), followed by streamflow (39%) and sublimation (14%). The models streamflow performance sensitivity to a set of parameter was analysed, as well as the mean annual mass balance uncertainty associated with these parameters.

The operational history of one of Canada’s longest operating hydrometric stations is reviewed in detail, including flood estimates that precede formal hydrometric monitoring. The assessment inspects the early and operational history, the published streamflow record and the stage-discharge measurements collected since 1909. Methods used to estimate pre-operational high flows and the operational history are reviewed to establish potential issues with changes in technology, location and measurement sections. The streamflow record is screened for discontinuities and change. The stage-discharge measurements used to establish the rating curve for open-water and ice-covered periods are assessed and used to establish the degree of support for the published data over the period of record. In the period 1882 to 1909, occasional high-stage estimates were used to estimate peak discharge, but with considerable uncertainty due to lack of stream velocity measurements and bed profiles. For the period 1909–1914 it is diff...

In this study we quantified the sensitivity of snow to climate warming in selected mountain sites having a Mediterranean climate, including the Pyrenees in Spain and Andorra, the Sierra Nevada in Spain and California (USA), the Atlas in Morocco, and the Andes in Chile. Meteorological observations from high elevations were used to simulate the snow energy and mass balance (SEMB) and calculate its sensitivity to climate. Very different climate sensitivities were evident amongst the various sites. For example, reductions of 9%–19% and 6–28 days in the mean snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow duration, respectively, were found per °C increase. Simulated changes in precipitation (±20%) did not affect the sensitivities. The Andes and Atlas Mountains have a shallow and cold snowpack, and net radiation dominates the SEMB; and explains their relatively low sensitivity to climate warming. The Pyrenees and USA Sierra Nevada have a deeper and warmer snowpack, and sensible heat flux is more important in the SEMB; this explains the much greater sensitivities of these regions. Differences in sensitivity help explain why, in regions where climate models project relatively greater temperature increases and drier conditions by 2050 (such as the Spanish Sierra Nevada and the Moroccan Atlas Mountains), the decline in snow accumulation and duration is similar to other sites (such as the Pyrenees and the USA Sierra Nevada), where models project stable precipitation and more attenuated warming. The snowpack in the Andes (Chile) exhibited the lowest sensitivity to warming, and is expected to undergo only moderate change (a decrease of <12% in mean SWE, and a reduction of < 7 days in snow duration under RCP 4.5). Snow accumulation and duration in the other regions are projected to decrease substantially (a minimum of 40% in mean SWE and 15 days in snow duration) by 2050.

The June 2013 flood in the Canadian Rockies featured rain‐on‐snow (ROS) runoff generation at alpine elevations that contributed to the high streamflows observed during the event. Such a mid‐summer ROS event has not been diagnosed in detail, and a diagnosis may help to understand future high discharge‐producing hydrometeorological events in mountainous cold regions. The alpine hydrology of the flood was simulated using a physically based model created with the modular cold regions hydrological modelling platform. The event was distinctive in that, although at first, relatively warm rain fell onto existing snowdrifts inducing ROS melt; the rainfall turned to snowfall as the air mass cooled and so increased snowcover and snowpacks in alpine regions, which then melted rapidly from ground heat fluxes in the latter part of the event. Melt rates of existing snowpacks were substantially lower during the ROS than during the relatively sunny periods preceding and following the event as a result of low wind speeds, cloud cover and cool temperatures. However, at the basin scale, melt volumes increased during the event as a result of increased snowcover from the fresh snowfall and consequent large ground heat contributions to melt energy, causing snowmelt to enhance rainfall–runoff by one fifth. Flow pathways also shifted during the event from relatively slow sub‐surface flow prior to the flood to an even contribution from sub‐surface and fast overland flow during and immediately after the event. This early summer, high precipitation ROS event was distinctive for the impact of decreased solar irradiance in suppressing melt rates, the contribution of ground heat flux to basin scale snowmelt after precipitation turned to snowfall, the transition from slow sub‐surface to fast overland flow runoff as the sub‐surface storage saturated and streamflow volumes that exceeded precipitation. These distinctions show that summer, mountain ROS events should be considered quite distinct from winter ROS and can be important contributors to catastrophic events. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In June 2013, excessive rainfall associated with an intense weather system triggered severe flooding in southern Alberta, which became the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This article provides an overview of the climatological aspects and large-scale hydrometeorological features associated with the flooding event based upon information from a variety of sources, including satellite data, upper air soundings, surface observations and operational model analyses. The results show that multiple factors combined to create this unusually severe event. The event was characterized by a slow-moving upper level low pressure system west of Alberta, blocked by an upper level ridge, while an associated well-organized surface low pressure system kept southern Alberta, especially the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, in continuous precipitation for up to two days. Results from air parcel trajectory analysis show that a significant amount of the moisture originated from the central Great Plains, transported into Alberta by a southeasterly low level jet. The event was first dominated by significant thunderstorm activity, and then evolved into continuous precipitation supported by the synoptic-scale low pressure system. Both the thunderstorm activity and upslope winds associated with the low pressure system produced large rainfall amounts. A comparison with previous similar events occurring in the same region suggests that the synoptic-scale features associated with the 2013 rainfall event were not particularly intense; however, its storm environment was the most convectively unstable. The system also exhibited a relatively high freezing level, which resulted in rain, rather than snow, mainly falling over the still snow-covered mountainous areas. Melting associated with this rain-on-snow scenario likely contributed to downstream flooding. Furthermore, above-normal snowfall in the preceding spring helped to maintain snow in the high-elevation areas, which facilitated the rain-on-snow event.

A devastating flood struck Southern Alberta in late June 2013, with much of its streamflow generation in the Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains, west of Calgary. To better understand streamflow generation processes and their sensitivity to initial conditions, a physically based hydrological model was developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to simulate the flood for the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km2). The modular model includes major cold and warm season hydrological processes including snow redistribution, sublimation, melt, runoff over frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, subsurface runoff on hillslopes, groundwater recharge and discharge and streamflow routing. Uncalibrated simulations were conducted for eight hydrological years and generally matched streamflow observations well, with a NRMSD of 52%, small model bias (−3%) and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71. The model was then used to diagnose the responses of hydrological processes in 2013 flood from different ecozones in Marmot Creek: alpine, treeline, montane forest and large and small forest clearings to better understand spatial variations in the flood runoff generation mechanisms. To examine the sensitivity to antecedent conditions, ‘virtual’ flood simulations were conducted using a week (17 to 24 June 2013) of flood meteorology imposed on the meteorology of the same period in other years (2005 to 2012), or switched with the meteorology of one week in different months (May to July) of 2013. Sensitivity to changing precipitation and land cover was assessed by varying the precipitation amount during the flood and forest cover and soil storage capacity in forest ecozone. The results show that runoff efficiency increases rapidly with antecedent snowpack and soil moisture storage with the highest runoff response to rainfall from locations in the basin where there are recently melted or actively melting snowpacks and resulting high soil moisture or frozen soils. The impact of forest canopy on flooding is negligible, but flood peak doubles if forest canopy removal is accompanied by 50% reduction in water storage capacity in the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Snow cover dynamics in alpine regions play a crucial role in view of the water balance of head water catchments. The temporal storage of water in form of snow and ice leads to a decoupling of precipitation and runoff. Changes in the volume and the temporal dynamics of the snow storage lead to modified runoff regimes and can influence the frequency of low flow events and floods. For a better estimation of the possible range and direction of future changes, projection runs can be realized by using process-based models. In this study, the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) is used to compile such a model for simulating the snow cover development within research catchment Zugspitze (RCZ; 11.4 km2/Germany). Therefore, the catchment is divided into four hydrological response units (HRUs), able to cover the physiographic characteristics in four elevation zones. The model is evaluated over snow depth measurements. The range of variability within and differences between the HRUs are analyzed, and future projections (2001–2100) are performed on the basis of three different WETTREG realizations. It could be shown that CRHM is able to reproduce the snow cover dynamics very well and that the ongoing climate change does have an identifiable influence on the average extent and size of the snow storage. Furthermore, it could be shown that variations in snow cover dynamics within the RCZ are strongly connected to NAO.

Abstract The snow surface temperature (SST) is essential for estimating longwave radiation fluxes from snow. SST can be diagnosed using finescale multilayer snow physics models that track changes in snow properties and internal energy; however, these models are heavily parameterized, have high predictive uncertainty, and require continuous simulation to estimate prognostic state variables. Here, a relatively simple model to estimate SST that is not reliant on prognostic state variables is proposed. The model assumes that the snow surface is poorly connected thermally to the underlying snowpack and largely transparent for most of the shortwave radiation spectrum, such that a snow surface energy balance among only sensible heat, latent heat, longwave radiation, and near-infrared radiation is possible and is called the radiative psychrometric model (RPM). The RPM SST is sensitive to air temperature, humidity, ventilation, and longwave irradiance and is secondarily affected by absorption of near-infrared radiation at the snow surface that was higher where atmospheric deposition of particulates was more likely to be higher. The model was implemented with neutral stability, an implicit windless exchange coefficient, and constant shortwave absorption factors and aerodynamic roughness lengths. It was evaluated against radiative SST measurements from the Canadian Prairies and Rocky Mountains, French Alps, and Bolivian Andes. With optimized and global shortwave absorption and aerodynamic roughness length parameters, the model is shown to accurately predict SST under a wide range of conditions, providing superior predictions when compared to air temperature, dewpoint, or ice bulb calculation approaches.

The origins and results of the scientific experiments in Marmot Creek Experimental Watershed, now the Marmot Creek Research Basin, over more than 50 years are reviewed. Marmot Creek was established to better understand how forest manipulations could be used to manage streamflow hydrographs and was actively manipulated in the 1970s and 1980s. While small forest clearings were shown to increase snow accumulation consistently, the impacts on melt rates depended on clearing size, slope and aspect. As a result, clearing treatments whether through large cutblocks or small clearings had modest impacts on the hydrograph timing and variability and only local impacts on streamflow volume. Changes in climate are primarily manifested as warming which has substantially reduced snowpacks at low elevations. These climate changes have not been evident in hydrograph change and there is no trend to volumes or timing of streamflow over the last 50 years. Overall the basin shows remarkable resiliency to climate and land use change due to its wide range of elevations, slopes, snow environments and sub-surface storage. The basin has become a hydrological process observatory where multi-scale models are developed and evaluated for operation over larger areas. It has served an invaluable role for this and the scientific results from Marmot Creek have supported the development of global climate models and hydrological models that are now applied throughout the world.