2022
Abstract. Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. While global hydrological models use generic parametrisations to model human dam operations, the representation of reservoir regulation is often still lacking in Earth System Models. Here we implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrisation in the global river routing model mizuRoute, which operates on a vector-based river network resolving individual lakes and reservoirs, and which is currently being coupled to an Earth System Model. We develop an approach to determine the downstream area over which to aggregate irrigation water demand per reservoir. The implementation of managed reservoirs is evaluated by comparing to simulations ignoring inland waters, and simulations with reservoirs represented as natural lakes, using (i) local simulations for 26 individual reservoirs driven by observed inflows, and (ii) global-scale simulations driven by runoff from the Community Land Model. The local simulations show a clear added value of the reservoir parametrisation, especially for simulating storage for large reservoirs with a multi-year storage capacity. In the global-scale application, the implementation of reservoirs shows an improvement in outflow and storage compared to the no-reservoir simulation, but compared to the natural lake parametrisation, an overall similar performance is found. This lack of impact could be attributed to biases in simulated river discharge, mainly originating from biases in simulated runoff from the Community Land Model. Finally, the comparison of modelled monthly streamflow indices against observations highlights that the inclusion of dam operations improves the streamflow simulation compared to ignoring lakes and reservoirs. This study overall underlines the need to further develop and test water management parametrisations, as well as to improve runoff simulations for advancing the representation of anthropogenic interference with the terrestrial water cycle in Earth System Models.
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Evaluating a reservoir parametrization in the vector-based global routing model mizuRoute (v2.0.1) for Earth system model coupling
Inne Vanderkelen,
Shervan Gharari,
Naoki Mizukami,
Martyn Clark,
David M. Lawrence,
Sean Swenson,
Yadu Pokhrel,
Naota Hanasaki,
Ann van Griensven,
Wim Thiery
Geoscientific Model Development, Volume 15, Issue 10
Abstract. Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. While global hydrological models use generic parameterizations to model dam operations, the representation of reservoir regulation is still lacking in many Earth system models. Here we implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in the global river-routing model mizuRoute, which operates on a vector-based river network resolving individual lakes and reservoirs and is currently being coupled to an Earth system model. We develop an approach to determine the downstream area over which to aggregate irrigation water demand per reservoir. The implementation of managed reservoirs is evaluated by comparing them to simulations ignoring inland waters and simulations with reservoirs represented as natural lakes using (i) local simulations for 26 individual reservoirs driven by observed inflows and (ii) global-domain simulations driven by runoff from the Community Land Model. The local simulations show the clear added value of the reservoir parametrization, especially for simulating storage for large reservoirs with a multi-year storage capacity. In the global-domain application, the implementation of reservoirs shows an improvement in outflow and storage compared to the no-reservoir simulation, but a similar performance is found compared to the natural lake parametrization. The limited impact of reservoirs on skill statistics could be attributed to biases in simulated river discharge, mainly originating from biases in simulated runoff from the Community Land Model. Finally, the comparison of modelled monthly streamflow indices against observations highlights that including dam operations improves the streamflow simulation compared to ignoring lakes and reservoirs. This study overall underlines the need to further develop and test runoff simulations and water management parameterizations in order to improve the representation of anthropogenic interference of the terrestrial water cycle in Earth system models.
2021
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Scientific and Human Errors in a Snow Model Intercomparison
Cécile B. Ménard,
Richard Essery,
Gerhard Krinner,
Gabriele Arduini,
Paul Bartlett,
Aaron Boone,
Claire Brutel-Vuilmet,
Eleanor Burke,
Matthias Cuntz,
Yongjiu Dai,
Bertrand Decharme,
Emanuel Dutra,
Xing Fang,
Charles Fierz,
Yeugeniy M. Gusev,
Stefan Hagemann,
Vanessa Haverd,
Hyungjun Kim,
Matthieu Lafaysse,
Thomas Marke,
О. Н. Насонова,
Tomoko Nitta,
Masashi Niwano,
John W. Pomeroy,
Gerd Schädler,
В. А. Семенов,
Tatiana G. Smirnova,
Ulrich Strasser,
Sean Swenson,
Dmitry Turkov,
Nander Wever,
Hua Yuan
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 102, Issue 1
Abstract Twenty-seven models participated in the Earth System Model–Snow Model Intercomparison Project (ESM-SnowMIP), the most data-rich MIP dedicated to snow modeling. Our findings do not support the hypothesis advanced by previous snow MIPs: evaluating models against more variables and providing evaluation datasets extended temporally and spatially does not facilitate identification of key new processes requiring improvement to model snow mass and energy budgets, even at point scales. In fact, the same modeling issues identified by previous snow MIPs arose: albedo is a major source of uncertainty, surface exchange parameterizations are problematic, and individual model performance is inconsistent. This lack of progress is attributed partly to the large number of human errors that led to anomalous model behavior and to numerous resubmissions. It is unclear how widespread such errors are in our field and others; dedicated time and resources will be needed to tackle this issue to prevent highly sophisticated models and their research outputs from being vulnerable because of avoidable human mistakes. The design of and the data available to successive snow MIPs were also questioned. Evaluation of models against bulk snow properties was found to be sufficient for some but inappropriate for more complex snow models whose skills at simulating internal snow properties remained untested. Discussions between the authors of this paper on the purpose of MIPs revealed varied, and sometimes contradictory, motivations behind their participation. These findings started a collaborative effort to adapt future snow MIPs to respond to the diverse needs of the community.
2020
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Snow cover duration trends observed at sites and predicted bymultiple models
Richard Essery,
Hyungjun Kim,
Libo Wang,
Paul Bartlett,
Aaron Boone,
Claire Brutel-Vuilmet,
Eleanor Burke,
Matthias Cuntz,
Bertrand Decharme,
Emanuel Dutra,
Xing Fang,
Yeugeniy M. Gusev,
Stefan Hagemann,
Vanessa Haverd,
Anna Kontu,
Gerhard Krinner,
Matthieu Lafaysse,
Yves Lejeune,
Thomas Marke,
Danny Marks,
Christoph Marty,
Cécile B. Ménard,
О. Н. Насонова,
Tomoko Nitta,
John W. Pomeroy,
Gerd Schaedler,
В. А. Семенов,
Tatiana G. Smirnova,
Sean Swenson,
Dmitry Turkov,
Nander Wever,
Hua Yuan
Abstract. Thirty-year simulations of seasonal snow cover in 22 physically based models driven with bias-corrected meteorological reanalyses are examined at four sites with long records of snow observations. Annual snow cover durations differ widely between models but interannual variations are strongly correlated because of the common driving data. No significant trends are observed in starting dates for seasonal snow cover, but there are significant trends towards snow cover ending earlier at two of the sites in observations and most of the models. A simplified model with just two parameters controlling solar radiation and sensible heat contributions to snowmelt spans the ranges of snow cover durations and trends. This model predicts that sites where snow persists beyond annual peaks in solar radiation and air temperature will experience rapid decreases in snow cover duration with warming as snow begins to melt earlier and at times of year with more energy available for melting.
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Snow cover duration trends observed at sites and predicted by multiple models
Richard Essery,
Hyungjun Kim,
Libo Wang,
Paul Bartlett,
Aaron Boone,
Claire Brutel-Vuilmet,
Eleanor Burke,
Matthias Cuntz,
Bertrand Decharme,
Emanuel Dutra,
Xing Fang,
Yeugeniy M. Gusev,
Stefan Hagemann,
Vanessa Haverd,
Anna Kontu,
Gerhard Krinner,
Matthieu Lafaysse,
Yves Lejeune,
Thomas Marke,
Danny Marks,
Christoph Marty,
Cécile B. Ménard,
О. Н. Насонова,
Tomoko Nitta,
John W. Pomeroy,
Gerd Schädler,
В. А. Семенов,
Tatiana G. Smirnova,
Sean Swenson,
Dmitry Turkov,
Nander Wever,
Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, Volume 14, Issue 12
Abstract. The 30-year simulations of seasonal snow cover in 22 physically based models driven with bias-corrected meteorological reanalyses are examined at four sites with long records of snow observations. Annual snow cover durations differ widely between models, but interannual variations are strongly correlated because of the common driving data. No significant trends are observed in starting dates for seasonal snow cover, but there are significant trends towards snow cover ending earlier at two of the sites in observations and most of the models. A simplified model with just two parameters controlling solar radiation and sensible heat contributions to snowmelt spans the ranges of snow cover durations and trends. This model predicts that sites where snow persists beyond annual peaks in solar radiation and air temperature will experience rapid decreases in snow cover duration with warming as snow begins to melt earlier and at times of year with more energy available for melting.
2019
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Hillslope Hydrology in Global Change Research and Earth System Modeling
Ying Fan,
Martyn Clark,
David M. Lawrence,
Sean Swenson,
Lawrence E. Band,
Susan L. Brantley,
P. D. Brooks,
W. E. Dietrich,
Alejandro N. Flores,
Gordon E. Grant,
James W. Kirchner,
D. S. Mackay,
Jeffrey J. McDonnell,
P. C. D. Milly,
Pamela Sullivan,
C. Tague,
Hoori Ajami,
Nathaniel W. Chaney,
Andreas Hartmann,
P. Hazenberg,
J. P. McNamara,
Jon D. Pelletier,
J. Perket,
Elham Rouholahnejad Freund,
Thorsten Wagener,
Xubin Zeng,
R. Edward Beighley,
Jonathan Buzan,
Maoyi Huang,
Ben Livneh,
Binayak P. Mohanty,
Bart Nijssen,
Mohammad Safeeq,
Chaopeng Shen,
Willem van Verseveld,
John Volk,
Dai Yamazaki
Water Resources Research, Volume 55, Issue 2
Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid‐level water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the one‐dimensional (1‐D), 2‐ to 3‐m deep, and free‐draining soil hydrology in most ESM land models, we hypothesize that 3‐D, lateral ridge‐to‐valley flow through shallow and deep paths and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes are the top two globally quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We hypothesize that these two processes are likely to impact ESM predictions where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that, if implemented in ESM land models, these processes will increase simulated continental water storage and residence time, buffering terrestrial ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited knowledge of the subsurface, where water is stored (supporting vegetation) and released to stream baseflow (supporting aquatic ecosystems). We conclude with a set of organizing hypotheses and a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions.
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The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty
David M. Lawrence,
Rosie A. Fisher,
Charles D. Koven,
Keith W. Oleson,
Sean Swenson,
G. B. Bonan,
Nathan Collier,
Bardan Ghimire,
Leo van Kampenhout,
Daniel Kennedy,
Erik Kluzek,
Peter Lawrence,
Fang Li,
Hong‐Yi Li,
Danica Lombardozzi,
W. J. Riley,
William J. Sacks,
Mingjie Shi,
Mariana Vertenstein,
William R. Wieder,
Chonggang Xu,
Ashehad A. Ali,
Andrew M. Badger,
Gautam Bisht,
M. R. van den Broeke,
Michael A. Brunke,
Sean P. Burns,
Jonathan Buzan,
Martyn Clark,
Anthony P Craig,
Kyla M. Dahlin,
Beth Drewniak,
Joshua B. Fisher,
M. Flanner,
A. M. Fox,
Pierre Gentine,
Forrest M. Hoffman,
G. Keppel‐Aleks,
R. G. Knox,
Sanjiv Kumar,
Jan T. M. Lenaerts,
L. Ruby Leung,
William H. Lipscomb,
Yaqiong Lü,
Ashutosh Pandey,
Jon D. Pelletier,
J. Perket,
James T. Randerson,
D. M. Ricciuto,
Benjamin M. Sanderson,
A. G. Slater,
Z. M. Subin,
Jinyun Tang,
R. Quinn Thomas,
Maria Val Martin,
Xubin Zeng
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Volume 11, Issue 12
The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time‐evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5.
The concept of using representative hillslopes to simulate hydrologically similar areas of a catchment has been incorporated in many hydrologic models but few Earth system models. Here we describe a configuration of the Community Land Model version 5 in which each grid cell is decomposed into one or more multicolumn hillslopes. Within each hillslope, the intercolumn connectivity is specified, and the lateral saturated subsurface flow from each column is passed to its downslope neighbor. We first apply the model to simulate a headwater catchment and assess the results against runoff and evapotranspiration flux measurements. By redistributing soil water within the catchment, the model is able to reproduce the observed difference between evapotranspiration in the upland and lowland portions of the catchment. Next, global simulations based on hypothetical hillslope geomorphic parameters are used to show the model's sensitivity to differences in hillslope shape and discretization. Differences in evapotranspiration between upland and lowland hillslope columns are found to be largest in arid and semiarid regions, while humid tropical and high‐latitude regions show limited evapotranspiration increases in lowlands relative to uplands.
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Contributions of GRACE to understanding climate change
B. D. Tapley,
M. M. Watkins,
Frank Flechtner,
Christoph Reigber,
Srinivas Bettadpur,
Matthew Rodell,
Ingo Sasgen,
J. S. Famiglietti,
Felix W. Landerer,
D. P. Chambers,
J. T. Reager,
Alex Gardner,
Himanshu Save,
Erik R. Ivins,
Sean Swenson,
Carmen Böening,
Christoph Dahle,
D. N. Wiese,
Henryk Dobslaw,
M. E. Tamisiea,
I. Velicogna
Nature Climate Change, Volume 9, Issue 5
Time-resolved satellite gravimetry has revolutionized understanding of mass transport in the Earth system. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has enabled monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle, ice sheet and glacier mass balance, sea level change and ocean bottom pressure variations and understanding responses to changes in the global climate system. Initially a pioneering experiment of geodesy, the time-variable observations have matured into reliable mass transport products, allowing assessment and forecast of a number of important climate trends and improve service applications such as the U.S. Drought Monitor. With the successful launch of the GRACE Follow-On mission, a multi decadal record of mass variability in the Earth system is within reach.