Stephen J. Déry


2023

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Spatiotemporal distribution and trend analyses of atmospheric rivers affecting British Columbia's Nechako Watershed
Bruno Sobral, Stephen J. Déry
International Journal of Climatology

Abstract Research and shared interest in atmospheric rivers (ARs) have increased significantly in recent years, alongside technological improvements that allow better comprehension of these storms. The Nechako River Basin (NRB) in British Columbia, Canada, is significantly affected by ARs originating in the Pacific Ocean. This work analyses the frequency, intensity, duration and trends of ARs in two regions (South and North) near the NRB. Analyses are based on data provided by an updated AR catalogue. The AR catalogue is matched on a daily scale to an adaptation of the AR scale to compile so‐called AR‐Days (ARDs). In the South region, ARDs exhibit stronger associations with hydroclimatic variables total precipitation, rain, snow and snow depth water equivalent (SWE). The Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test was applied to 364 time series created by combining the two closest AR‐monitored regions to the NRB with the annual and seasonal scales of climate data and the adapted AR scale (ARD0‐ARD5). Results show higher AR frequency of mainly beneficial ARDs during fall and a significant reduction of ARD1‐ARD3 in both analysed regions. Rain and total precipitation related to ARD2‐ARD3 also present significant decreasing trends for most sub‐basins of the NRB. The MK test shows a shift in water contribution from total precipitation and rainfall linked to more potentially dangerous ARDs to short‐duration, beneficial ARDs (ARD0). Rain from non‐AR‐related meteorological systems presents an increasing trend for the Upper Nechako sub‐basin, where the Nechako Reservoir is located. Trends are mainly for AR‐related total precipitation and rainfall, and in the northern part of the NRB, results point to the increase of AR‐related SWE.

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Atmospheric and surface observations during the Saint John River Experiment on Cold Season Storms (SAJESS)
Hadleigh D. Thompson, Julie M. Thériault, Stephen J. Déry, Ronald E. Stewart, Dominique Boisvert, Lisa Rickard, Nicolas Leroux, Matteo Colli, Vincent Vionnet
Earth System Science Data Discussions, Volume 2023

Abstract. The amount and phase of cold season precipitation accumulating in the upper Saint John River basin are critical factors in determining spring runoff, ice-jams, and flooding in downstream communities. To study the impact of winter and spring storms on the snowpack in the upper Saint John River (SJR) basin, the Saint John River Experiment on Cold Season Storms (SAJESS) utilized meteorological instrumentation, upper air soundings, human observations, and hydrometeor macrophotography during winter/spring 2020–21. Here, we provide an overview of the SAJESS study area, field campaign, and existing data networks surrounding the upper SJR basin. Initially, meteorological instrumentation was co-located with an Environment and Climate Change Canada station near Edmundston, New Brunswick, in early December 2020. This was followed by an intensive observation period that involved manual observations, upper-air soundings, a multi-angle snowflake camera, macrophotography of solid hydrometeors, and advanced automated instrumentation throughout March and April 2021. The resulting datasets include optical disdrometer size and velocity distributions of hydrometeors, micro rain radar output, near-surface meteorological observations, and wind speed, temperature, pressure and precipitation amounts from a K63 Hotplate precipitation gauge, the first one operating in Canada. These data are publicly available from the Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/103.0591 (Thompson et al., 2022). We also include a synopsis of the data management plan and data processing, and a brief assessment of the rewards and challenges of utilizing community volunteers for hydro-meteorological citizen science.

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Learning from hydrological models’ challenges: A case study from the Nelson basin model intercomparison project
Mansoor Ahmed, Tricia A. Stadnyk, Alain Pietroniro, Hervé Awoye, A. R. Bajracharya, Juliane Mai, Bryan A. Tolson, Helen C. Shen, James R. Craig, Melissa Gervais, Kevin Sagan, Shane G. Wruth, Kristina Koenig, Rajtantra Lilhare, Stephen J. Déry, Scott Pokorny, Henry David Venema, Ameer Muhammad, Mahkameh Taheri
Journal of Hydrology, Volume 623

Intercomparison studies play an important, but limited role in understanding the usefulness and limitations of currently available hydrological models. Comparison studies are often limited to well-behaved hydrological regimes, where rainfall-runoff processes dominate the hydrological response. These efforts have not covered western Canada due to the difficulty in simulating that region’s complex cold region hydrology with varying spatiotemporal contributing areas. This intercomparison study is the first of a series of studies under the intercomparison project of the international and interprovincial transboundary Nelson-Churchill River Basin (NCRB) in North America (Nelson-MIP), which encompasses different ecozones with major areas of the non-contributing Prairie potholes, forests, glaciers, mountains, and permafrost. The performance of eight hydrological and land surface models is compared at different unregulated watersheds within the NCRB. This is done to assess the models’ streamflow performance and overall fidelity without and with calibration, to capture the underlying physics of the region and to better understand why models struggle to accurately simulate its hydrology. Results show that some of the participating models have difficulties in simulating streamflow and/or internal hydrological variables (e.g., evapotranspiration) over Prairie watersheds but most models performed well elsewhere. This stems from model structural deficiencies, despite the various models being well calibrated to observed streamflow. Some model structural changes are identified for the participating models for future improvement. The outcomes of this study offer guidance for practitioners for the accurate prediction of NCRB streamflow, and for increasing confidence in future projections of water resources supply and management.

2022

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Storms and Precipitation Across the continental Divide Experiment (SPADE)
Julie M. Thériault, Nicolas Leroux, Ronald E. Stewart, André Bertoncini, Stephen J. Déry, John W. Pomeroy, Hadleigh D. Thompson, Hilary M. Smith, Zen Mariani, Aurélie Desroches-Lapointe, S. G. Mitchell, Juris Almonte
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 103, Issue 11

Abstract The Canadian Rockies are a triple-continental divide, whose high mountains are drained by major snow-fed and rain-fed rivers flowing to the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans. The objective of the April–June 2019 Storms and Precipitation Across the continental Divide Experiment (SPADE) was to determine the atmospheric processes producing precipitation on the eastern and western sides of the Canadian Rockies during springtime, a period when upslope events of variable phase dominate precipitation on the eastern slopes. To do so, three observing sites across the divide were instrumented with advanced meteorological sensors. During the 13 observed events, the western side recorded only 25% of the eastern side’s precipitation accumulation, rainfall occurred rather than snowfall, and skies were mainly clear. Moisture sources and amounts varied markedly between events. An atmospheric river landfall in California led to moisture flowing persistently northward and producing the longest duration of precipitation on both sides of the divide. Moisture from the continental interior always produced precipitation on the eastern side but only in specific conditions on the western side. Mainly slow-falling ice crystals, sometimes rimed, formed at higher elevations on the eastern side (>3 km MSL), were lifted, and subsequently drifted westward over the divide during nonconvective storms to produce rain at the surface on the western side. Overall, precipitation generally crossed the divide in the Canadian Rockies during specific spring-storm atmospheric conditions although amounts at the surface varied with elevation, condensate type, and local and large-scale flow fields.

2021

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Meteorological observations collected during the Storms and Precipitation Across the continental Divide Experiment (SPADE), April–June 2019
Julie M. Thériault, Stephen J. Déry, John W. Pomeroy, Hilary M. Smith, Juris Almonte, André Bertoncini, Robert W. Crawford, Aurélie Desroches-Lapointe, Mathieu Lachapelle, Zen Mariani, S. G. Mitchell, Jeremy Morris, Charlie Hébert-Pinard, Peter Rodriguez, Hadleigh D. Thompson
Earth System Science Data, Volume 13, Issue 3

Abstract. The continental divide along the spine of the Canadian Rockies in southwestern Canada is a critical headwater region for hydrological drainages to the Pacific, Arctic, and Atlantic oceans. Major flooding events are typically attributed to heavy precipitation on its eastern side due to upslope (easterly) flows. Precipitation can also occur on the western side of the divide when moisture originating from the Pacific Ocean encounters the west-facing slopes of the Canadian Rockies. Often, storms propagating across the divide result in significant precipitation on both sides. Meteorological data over this critical region are sparse, with few stations located at high elevations. Given the importance of all these types of events, the Storms and Precipitation Across the continental Divide Experiment (SPADE) was initiated to enhance our knowledge of the atmospheric processes leading to storms and precipitation on either side of the continental divide. This was accomplished by installing specialized meteorological instrumentation on both sides of the continental divide and carrying out manual observations during an intensive field campaign from 24 April–26 June 2019. On the eastern side, there were two field sites: (i) at Fortress Mountain Powerline (2076 m a.s.l.) and (ii) at Fortress Junction Service, located in a high-elevation valley (1580 m a.s.l.). On the western side, Nipika Mountain Resort, also located in a valley (1087 m a.s.l.), was chosen as a field site. Various meteorological instruments were deployed including two Doppler light detection and ranging instruments (lidars), three vertically pointing micro rain radars, and three optical disdrometers. The three main sites were nearly identically instrumented, and observers were on site at Fortress Mountain Powerline and Nipika Mountain Resort during precipitation events to take manual observations of precipitation type and microphotographs of solid particles. The objective of the field campaign was to gather high-temporal-frequency meteorological data and to compare the different conditions on either side of the divide to study the precipitation processes that can lead to catastrophic flooding in the region. Details on field sites, instrumentation used, and collection methods are discussed. Data from the study are publicly accessible from the Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0221 (Thériault et al., 2020). This dataset will be used to study atmospheric conditions associated with precipitation events documented simultaneously on either side of a continental divide. This paper also provides a sample of the data gathered during a precipitation event.

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Simulating river regulation and reservoir performance in a continental-scale hydrologic model
Andrew Tefs, Tricia A. Stadnyk, Kristina Koenig, Stephen J. Déry, Matthew K. MacDonald, P. Slota, Charles G. Crawford, Mathew Hamilton
Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 141

Abstract This study develops a novel reservoir regulation routine, incorporated into a continental-scale hydrologic model in the Nelson, Churchill, Yenisey, Ob, and Lena basins. This regulation routine is integrated into the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) hydrologic model, used for continental-scale applications. Applying this daily timestep regulation routine at 19 reservoirs in the Arctic Ocean watershed, performance is shown to improve upon the reservoir regulation currently available in the HYPE model when testing outflow and storage Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies (NSEs). Improvements stem from intra-annually variable storage rule curves and a variety of stage-dependent outflow functions, improving simulation skill (median NSE increases of 0.18 over 21 reservoir outflow records and 0.49 over 19 reservoir storage records). This new, reservoir regulation routine is suitable for continental-scale modelling by deriving varying, rather than fixed, threshold water surface levels and associated outflow rules in a programmatic way for multiple reservoirs.

2020

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Contribution of Atmospheric Rivers to Annual, Seasonal, and Extreme Precipitation Across British Columbia and Southeastern Alaska
Aseem R. Sharma, Stephen J. Déry
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Volume 125, Issue 9

Lying in the frontline of the prevailing midlatitude westerlies, British Columbia and southeastern Alaska (BCSAK) often receive copious amounts of precipitation through atmospheric rivers (ARs). This study quantifies the contribution of ARs to annual, seasonal, and extreme precipitation across BCSAK from 1979 to 2012 using a recently developed high‐resolution gridded precipitation data set, a regional AR catalog, and integrated vapor transport fields calculated from a reanalysis data set. On average, ARs contribute 13% of total annual precipitation with the higher contribution along the coastal regions (up to 33%), parts of which are one of the wettest locations on Earth, followed by the Columbia and Rocky Mountains (~9%–15%). The highest contributions occur during September (up to 57%) and October (up to 49%). The contribution of ARs to extreme precipitation attains >90% along the western arc of the Coast Mountains and the coastal regions of BCSAK. ARs act as the main synoptic‐scale mechanism that brings rainfall to the Rocky Mountains in winter. The probability of observing AR‐related precipitation increases over the study period; however, no change occurs in the average AR‐related precipitation amount for most of BCSAK during 1979–2012. This work provides insights on the critical role ARs play on the water resources of northwestern North America and has broader implications on community water supply and management, hydropower operations, and flood risk assessment and mitigation.

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Linking Atmospheric Rivers to Annual and Extreme River Runoff in British Columbia and Southeastern Alaska
Aseem R. Sharma, Stephen J. Déry
Journal of Hydrometeorology, Volume 21, Issue 11

Abstract This study quantifies the contribution of atmospheric rivers (ARs) to annual and extreme river runoff and evaluates the relationships between watershed characteristics and AR-related maximum river runoff across British Columbia and southeastern Alaska (BCSAK). Datasets used include gauged runoff from 168 unregulated watersheds, topographic characteristics of those watersheds, a regional AR catalog, and integrated vapor transport fields for water years (WYs) 1979–2016. ARs contribute ~22% of annual river runoff along the Coast and Insular Mountains watersheds, which decreases inland to ~11% in the watersheds of the Interior Mountains and Plateau. Average association between ARs and annual maximum river runoff attains >80%, >50%, and <50% along the watersheds of the western flanks of the Coast Mountains, the Interior Mountains, and Interior Plateau, respectively. There is no significant change in AR-related extreme annual maximum runoff across BCSAK during 1979–2016. AR conditions occur during 25 out of 32 of the flood-related natural disasters in British Columbia during WYs 1979–2016. AR-related annual maximum runoff magnitude is significantly higher than non-AR-related annual maximum runoff for 30% of the watersheds studied. Smaller and steeper watersheds closer to the coast are more susceptible to AR-related annual maximum runoff than their inland counterparts. These results illustrate the importance of AR activity as a major control for the distribution of peak runoff in BCSAK. This work provides insights on the hydrological response of watersheds of northwestern North America to landfalling ARs that may improve flood risk assessment and disaster management in this region.

2019

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Atmospheric Rivers Increase Future Flood Risk in Western Canada's Largest Pacific River
Charles L. Curry, Siraj ul Islam, Francis W. Zwiers, Stephen J. Déry
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 46, Issue 3

Snow‐dominated watersheds are bellwethers of climate change. Hydroclimate projections in such basins often find reductions in annual peak runoff due to decreased snowpack under global warming. British Columbia's Fraser River Basin (FRB) is a large, nival basin with exposure to moisture‐laden atmospheric rivers originating in the Pacific Ocean. Landfalling atmospheric rivers over the region in winter are projected to increase in both strength and frequency in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models. We investigate future changes in hydrology and annual peak daily streamflow in the FRB using a hydrologic model driven by a bias‐corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (8.5), the FRB evolves toward a nival‐pluvial regime featuring an increasing association of extreme rainfall with annual peak daily flow, a doubling in cold season peak discharge, and a decrease in the return period of the largest historical flow, from a 1‐in‐200‐year to 1‐in‐50‐year event by the late 21st century.

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Quantifying projected changes in runoff variability and flow regimes of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia
Siraj ul Islam, Charles L. Curry, Stephen J. Déry, Francis W. Zwiers
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 23, Issue 2

Abstract. In response to ongoing and future-projected global warming, mid-latitude, nival river basins are expected to transition from a snowmelt-dominated flow regime to a nival–pluvial one with an earlier spring freshet of reduced magnitude. There is, however, a rich variation in responses that depends on factors such as the topographic complexity of the basin and the strength of maritime influences. We illustrate the potential effects of a strong maritime influence by studying future changes in cold season flow variability in the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia, a large extratropical watershed extending from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Coast. We use a process-based hydrological model driven by an ensemble of 21 statistically downscaled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Warming under RCP 8.5 leads to reduced winter snowfall, shortening the average snow accumulation season by about one-third. Despite this, large increases in cold season rainfall lead to unprecedented cold season peak flows and increased overall runoff variability in the VIC simulations. Increased cold season rainfall is shown to be the dominant climatic driver in the Coast Mountains, contributing 60 % to mean cold season runoff changes in the 2080s. Cold season runoff at the outlet of the basin increases by 70 % by the 2080s, and its interannual variability more than doubles when compared to the 1990s, suggesting substantial challenges for operational flow forecasting in the region. Furthermore, almost half of the basin (45 %) transitions from a snow-dominated runoff regime in the 1990s to a primarily rain-dominated regime in the 2080s, according to a snowmelt pulse detection algorithm. While these projections are consistent with the anticipated transition from a nival to a nival–pluvial hydrologic regime, the marked increase in FRB cold season runoff is likely linked to more frequent landfalling atmospheric rivers in the region projected in the CMIP5 models, providing insights for other maritime-influenced extratropical basins.

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Intercomparison of Multiple Hydroclimatic Datasets across the Lower Nelson River Basin, Manitoba, Canada
Rajtantra Lilhare, Stephen J. Déry, Scott Pokorny, Tricia A. Stadnyk, Kristina Koenig
Atmosphere-Ocean, Volume 57, Issue 4

ABSTRACTThis study evaluates the 1981–2010 spatiotemporal differences in six available climate datasets (daily total precipitation and mean air temperature) over the Lower Nelson River Basin (LNRB)...

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Variability and trends of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the Pacific Coast of northwestern North America
Aseem R. Sharma, Stephen J. Déry
International Journal of Climatology, Volume 40, Issue 1

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), defined as narrow, transient corridors of strong moisture transport in the lower troposphere, are important phenomena for freshwater recharge and water resources, especially along the west coast of North America. This study presents the variability and trends of landfalling ARs (LARs) along the higher (53.5°–60.0°N) and lower (47.0°–53.5°N) latitudes of British Columbia and southeastern Alaska (BCSAK) during the 1948–2016 period. Moreover, we present the synoptic evolution and distribution of LARs in BCSAK during different phases of ocean–atmosphere climate variability using a six‐hourly AR catalogue from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research. During 1948–2016, BCSAK averages 35 ± 5 LARs annually, with the highest frequency during fall (13 ± 2) and lowest during spring (5 ± 2). The frequency of LARs across BCSAK rises during the study period, and the increase between 1979 and 2016 is statistically significant (p < .05). A strong ridge over the Pacific Northwest and BC and a trough over the Gulf of Alaska and the Northeastern Pacific Ocean favours AR landfalls at the higher and lower latitudes, respectively. BCSAK experiences greater numbers of LARs during neutral phases of El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the 2013/2014 Pacific oceanic blob, and during the positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Pacific North American Pattern.

2018

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The Cariboo Alpine Mesonet: sub-hourly hydrometeorological observations of British Columbia's Cariboo Mountains and surrounding area since 2006
Marco A. Hernández-Henríquez, Aseem R. Sharma, Mark Taylor, Hadleigh D. Thompson, Stephen J. Déry
Earth System Science Data, Volume 10, Issue 3

Abstract. This article presents the development of a sub-hourly database of hydrometeorological conditions collected in British Columbia's (BC's) Cariboo Mountains and surrounding area extending from 2006 to present. The Cariboo Alpine Mesonet (CAMnet) forms a network of 11 active hydrometeorological stations positioned at strategic locations across mid- to high elevations of the Cariboo Mountains. This mountain region spans 44 150 km2, forming the northern extension of the Columbia Mountains. Deep fjord lakes along with old-growth western redcedar and hemlock forests reside in the lower valleys, montane forests of Engelmann spruce, lodgepole pine and subalpine fir permeate the mid-elevations, while alpine tundra, glaciers and several large ice fields cover the higher elevations. The automatic weather stations typically measure air and soil temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, rainfall and snow depth at 15 min intervals. Additional measurements at some stations include shortwave and longwave radiation, near-surface air, skin, snow, or water temperature, and soil moisture, among others. Details on deployment sites, the instrumentation used and its precision, the collection and quality control process are provided. Instructions on how to access the database at Zenodo, an online public data repository, are also furnished (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1195043). Information on some of the challenges and opportunities encountered in maintaining continuous and homogeneous time series of hydrometeorological variables and remote field sites is provided. The paper also summarizes ongoing plans to expand CAMnet to better monitor atmospheric conditions in BC's mountainous terrain, efforts to push data online in (near-)real time, availability of ancillary data and lessons learned thus far in developing this mesoscale network of hydrometeorological stations in the data-sparse Cariboo Mountains.

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The Cariboo Alpine Mesonet: Sub-hourly hydrometeorological observations of British Columbia's Cariboo Mountains and surrounding area since 2006
Marco A. Hernández-Henríquez, Aseem R. Sharma, Mark P. Taylor, Hadleigh D. Thompson, Stephen J. Déry

Abstract. This article presents the development of a sub-hourly database of hydrometeorological conditions collected in British Columbia's Cariboo Mountains and surrounding area extending from 2006 to present. The Cariboo Alpine Mesonet (CAMnet) forms a network of 11 active hydrometeorological stations positioned at strategic locations across mid- to high elevations of the Cariboo Mountains. This mountain range spans 44,150 km2 forming the northern extension of the Columbia Mountains. Deep fjord lakes along with old-growth redcedar and hemlock forests reside in the lower valleys, montane forests of Engelmann spruce, lodgepole pine and subalpine fir permeate the mid-elevations while alpine tundra, glaciers and several large icefields cover the higher elevations. The automatic weather stations typically measure air and soil temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, rainfall, and snow depth at 15 minute intervals. Additional measurements at some stations include shortwave and longwave radiation, near-surface air, skin, snow or water temperature, and soil moisture among others. Details on deployment sites, the instrumentation used and its precision, the collection and quality control process are provided. Instructions on how to access the database at Zenodo, an online public data repository, are also furnished (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1195043). Information on some of the challenges and opportunities encountered in maintaining continuous and homogeneous time series of hydrometeorological variables and remote field sites is provided. The paper also summarizes ongoing plans to expand CAMnet to better monitor atmospheric conditions in BC's mountainous terrain, efforts to push data online in (near)real-time, availability of ancillary data, and lessons learned thus far in developing this mesoscale network of hydrometeorological stations in the data-sparse Cariboo Mountains.