2022
DOI
bib
abs
Coevolution of machine learning and process‐based modelling to revolutionize Earth and environmental sciences: A perspective
Saman Razavi,
David M. Hannah,
Amin Elshorbagy,
Sujay V. Kumar,
Lucy Marshall,
Dimitri Solomatine,
Amin Dezfuli,
Mojtaba Sadegh,
J. S. Famiglietti
Hydrological Processes, Volume 36, Issue 6
Abstract Machine learning (ML) applications in Earth and environmental sciences (EES) have gained incredible momentum in recent years. However, these ML applications have largely evolved in ‘isolation’ from the mechanistic, process‐based modelling (PBM) paradigms, which have historically been the cornerstone of scientific discovery and policy support. In this perspective, we assert that the cultural barriers between the ML and PBM communities limit the potential of ML, and even its ‘hybridization’ with PBM, for EES applications. Fundamental, but often ignored, differences between ML and PBM are discussed as well as their strengths and weaknesses in light of three overarching modelling objectives in EES, (1) nowcasting and prediction, (2) scenario analysis, and (3) diagnostic learning. The paper ponders over a ‘coevolutionary’ approach to model building, shifting away from a borrowing to a co‐creation culture, to develop a generation of models that leverage the unique strengths of ML such as scalability to big data and high‐dimensional mapping, while remaining faithful to process‐based knowledge base and principles of model explainability and interpretability, and therefore, falsifiability.
2020
DOI
bib
abs
Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP): Quantification of snowwater equivalent uncertainty across North America via ensemble landsurface modeling
Rhae Sung Kim,
Sujay V. Kumar,
Carrie Vuyovich,
Paul R. Houser,
Jessica D. Lundquist,
Lawrence Mudryk,
Michael Durand,
Ana P. Barros,
Edward Kim,
Barton A. Forman,
E. D. Gutmann,
Melissa L. Wrzesien,
Camille Garnaud,
Melody Sandells,
Hans‐Peter Marshall,
Nicoleta Cristea,
Justin M. Pflug,
Jeremy Johnston,
Yueqian Cao,
David M. Mocko,
Shugong Wang
Abstract. The Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP) is an effort to establish a baseline characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) uncertainty across North America with the goal of informing global snow observational needs. An ensemble-based modeling approach, encompassing a suite of current operational models, is used to assess the uncertainty in SWE and total snow storage (SWS) estimation over North America during the 2009&ndashl2017 period. The highest modeled SWE uncertainty is observed in mountainous regions, likely due to the relatively deep snow, forcing uncertainties, and variability between the different models in resolving the snow processes over complex terrain. This highlights a need for high-resolution observations in mountains to capture the high spatial SWE variability. The greatest SWS is found in Tundra regions where even though the spatiotemporal variability in modeled SWE is low, there is considerable uncertainty in the SWS estimates due to the large areal extent over which those estimates are spread. This highlights the need for high accuracy in snow estimations across the Tundra. In mid-latitude boreal forests, large uncertainties in both SWE and SWS indicate that vegetation-snow impacts are a critical area where focused improvements to modeled snow estimation efforts need to be made. Finally, the SEUP results indicate that SWE uncertainty is driving runoff uncertainty and measurements may be beneficial in reducing uncertainty in SWE and runoff, during the melt season at high latitudes (e.g., Tundra and Taiga regions) and in the Western mountain regions, whereas observations at (or near) peak SWE accumulation are more helpful over the mid-latitudes.