Journal of Flood Risk Management


Anthology ID:
G23-6
Month:
Year:
2023
Address:
Venue:
GWF
SIG:
Publisher:
Wiley
URL:
https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G23-6
DOI:
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Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications
Louise Arnal | Alain Pietroniro | John W. Pomeroy | Vincent Fortin | David R. Casson | Tricia A. Stadnyk | Prabin Rokaya | Dorothy Durnford | Evan Friesenhan | Martyn P. Clark

Abstract Operational flood forecasting in Canada is a provincial responsibility that is carried out by several entities across the country. However, the increasing costs and impacts of floods require better and nationally coordinated flood prediction systems. A more coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada can enable implementing advanced prediction capabilities across the different entities with responsibility for flood forecasting. Recently, the Canadian meteorological and hydrological services were tasked to develop a national flow guidance system. Alongside this initiative, the Global Water Futures program has been advancing cold regions process understanding, hydrological modeling, and forecasting. A community of practice was established for industry, academia, and decision‐makers to share viewpoints on hydrological challenges. Taken together, these initiatives are paving the way towards a national flood forecasting framework. In this article, forecasting challenges are identified (with a focus on cold regions), and recommendations are made to promote the creation of this framework. These include the need for cooperation, well‐defined governance, and better knowledge mobilization. Opportunities and challenges posed by the increasing data availability globally are also highlighted. Advances in each of these areas are positioning Canada as a major contributor to the international operational flood forecasting landscape. This article highlights a route towards the deployment of capacities across large geographical domains.

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Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop
Antara Dasgupta | Louise Arnal | Rebecca Emerton | Shaun Harrigan | Gwyneth Matthews | Ameer Muhammad | Karen O'Regan | Teresa Pérez‐Ciria | Emixi Valdez | Bart van Osnabrugge | Micha Werner | Carlo Buontempo | Hannah Cloke | Florian Pappenberger | Ilias Pechlivanidis | Christel Prudhomme | Maria‐Helena Ramos | Peter Salamon

Abstract The unprecedented progress in ensemble hydro‐meteorological modelling and forecasting on a range of temporal and spatial scales, raises a variety of new challenges which formed the theme of the Joint Virtual Workshop, ‘Connecting global to local hydrological modelling and forecasting: challenges and scientific advances’. Held from 29 June to 1 July 2021, this workshop was co‐organised by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Copernicus Emergency Management (CEMS) and Climate Change (C3S) Services, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX), and the Global Flood Partnership (GFP). This article aims to summarise the state‐of‐the‐art presented at the workshop and provide an early career perspective. Recent advances in hydrological modelling and forecasting, reflections on the use of forecasts for decision‐making across scales, and means to minimise new barriers to communication in the virtual format are also discussed. Thematic foci of the workshop included hydrological model development and skill assessment, uncertainty communication, forecasts for early action, co‐production of services and incorporation of local knowledge, Earth observation, and data assimilation. Connecting hydrological services to societal needs and local decision‐making through effective communication, capacity‐building and co‐production was identified as critical. Multidisciplinary collaborations emerged as crucial to effectively bring newly developed tools to practice.