Water management involves monitoring, predicting, and stewarding the quality and quantity of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale. Recharge sustains baseflow to streams and replenishes water extracted by pumping at wells; it is frequently estimated using numerical models that couple or fully integrate surface water and groundwater domains and use water budgets to partition water into various components of the hydrological cycle. However, uncertainty associated with the input data for large components such as precipitation and evapotranspiration may hinder model accuracy, and preferential flow dynamics such as depression focused recharge (DFR) may not be represented at typical modelling scales (≥10s of sq. km) or with typical approaches. The present study addressed two themes related to groundwater sustainability and vulnerability: 1) the sensitivity of modelled recharge estimates to the spatial variability of rainfall, and 2) the vulnerability of public supply wells to DFR during large-magnitude rainfall or snowmelt events. The region investigated during this research was the Alder Creek watershed (78 sq. km), a typical southern Ontario setting overlying glacial moraine sediments with mostly agricultural land use, some urban and aggregate resource development, and whose recharge supplies multiple municipal well fields for the cities of Kitchener and Waterloo. Rainfall is often the largest component of the water budget and even a small uncertainty percentage may lead to challenges for accurately estimating groundwater recharge as a calculated residual within a water budget approach. However, rainfall monitoring networks typically have widely spaced gauges that are frequently outside the watershed of interest. Assessment of the influence of spatially variable rainfall on annual recharge rate estimates was performed by comparing transient simulations using input data from three different rain gauge networks within a coupled and fully-distributed numerical model. A local network of six weather stations with rain gauges was installed and operated in and around the study watershed for three years, and data from six regional stations (within 30 km of the watershed) and one national station (3 km from the watershed) were obtained from publicly available sources. Time series of distributed, daily rainfall were interpolated via the inverse distance squared method using data from each of the rain gauge networks for three calendar years. The temporal and spatial snowfall distribution was consistent among all scenarios, to maintain focus on differences caused by the rainfall input data. Results showed that annual average recharge rates could differ considerably between scenarios, with differences sometimes greater than the water-budget derived uncertainty for recharge. Differences in overall recharge between pairs of scenarios involving the local rain gauge network were largest, varying by up to 141 mm per year, or 44% of the steady state recharge estimated in a previous study. Streamflow estimates for the local rainfall simulations were closer to observations than those using regional or national rainfall. Because the three scenarios used the same set of underlying soil parameters, the results suggest that the availability of local rainfall measurements has the potential to improve the calibration of transient watershed hydrogeological models. The second theme of the present study was exemplified by the Walkerton tragedy in 2000, where pathogenic microbes were rapidly transported from ground surface to a public supply well during a heavy rainfall event. The vulnerability of such wells to surface-originating contaminants during major hydrological events remains poorly understood and is difficult to quantify. Such events may result in overland flow collecting in low topographic locations, leading to localized infiltration. If focused recharge occurs in the immediate vicinity of a public supply well, the threat to the water quality of that well may significantly increase temporarily. These conditions are frequently encountered within the glaciated landscape of southern Ontario. Conventional approaches for defining the threat of groundwater under the direct influence of surface water (GUDI) do not routinely account for this type of transient infiltration event and instead assume steady state flow fields without localized recharge. The present study combined the monitoring and modelling of a site in southern Ontario where DFR is routinely observed to occur within 50 m of a public supply well. Extensive site characterization and hydrologic monitoring were conducted at the site over a period of 3.5 years, specifically during large-magnitude hydrologic events including heavy rainfall and snowmelt. Integrated surface water – groundwater models employing HydroGeoSphere (HGS) were used to quantify the transport of potential contaminants infiltrating beneath a depression and a creek and the associated risk to the public supply well. Simulated relative concentrations at the well were below “detection” for typical median contaminant concentrations in surface water but > 1 cfu/100 mL with travel times between 118 and 142 days for creek and DFR solutes, respectively, based on maximum initial surface water concentrations. Results suggest that DFR and localized recharge could increase the threat to overburden wells under extreme conditions. Ponding reduced travel time by at least 58 days for the DFR solute. In order to extend the analysis of recharge estimate sensitivity to spatial rainfall variability to the longer term, and to incorporate the influence of actual evapotranspiration (AET) uncertainty, a method was developed to employ stochastic rainfall time series and AET estimates in a Monte Carlo framework to quantify the resulting variability in recharge estimates and three groundwater management metrics. Stochastic rainfall time series were generated via a parametric, mixed exponential method for three virtual stations within the Alder Creek watershed and constrained by field-derived spatial correlation coefficients. Observed snowfall data from one nearby national weather station were used to calculate total precipitation. Stochastic annual AET estimates were generated based on: 1) calculated annual potential evapotranspiration at the national weather station, 2) observed variation about the Budyko curve in 45 US MOPEX watersheds with PET/P ratios within ±0.05 of the average ratio calculated for the national weather station near the watershed, and 3) a correction factor to remove AET from the saturated zone. Recharge rates for the Alder Creek watershed were calculated via a 46-year vadose zone water budget for each of 16,778 realizations. The surface water fraction of streamflow was estimated using hydrograph separation results for the watershed. It was hypothesized that spatially variable precipitation would exert more influence on recharge than AET because it is a larger component of the local water budget. Groundwater recharge results were applied to three different metrics related to water quality, well vulnerability, and water quantity. Results suggest that estimates of non-point source contaminant loadings to the water table could differ by up to ±14% from the average. Worst case changes in capture zone area estimates for a public supply well could be up to ±15% different from the average. The ratio of maximum to minimum cumulative recharge over all realizations was 1.31, though contributions from spatial rainfall variability alone led to a ratio of 1.15. This suggests that AET uncertainty and spatial rainfall variability each contribute nearly the same amount of variability to recharge estimates. This latter ratio is less than the result (~2) from a previous study of a much larger watershed in Spain. The results highlight the importance of AET estimates for recharge rate estimation, and their potential impacts on land use planning and groundwater management. This method could be used to project impacts of climate change on recharge variability at the watershed scale. Overall, results suggest that the spatial variability of rainfall could impact recharge rate estimates in numerical models of small to medium sized watersheds (e.g., 78 sq. km), especially during short simulations. Annual recharge estimates could vary over a range equivalent to 44% of a previously estimated steady state value, though long-term (46-yr) estimates could vary over a range equivalent to 12% of this value due to averaging over time. Non-point source loadings and capture zone areas could vary up to ±7.0% and ±7.4% from the average, respectively, over the long term due to spatial rainfall variability, though uncertainties associated with AET could increase this to ±14% or ±15%, respectively. The hydrological event characterization and well vulnerability modelling of the second research theme suggest that localized recharge could lead to increased microbial risks for wells screened in overburden sediments during large hydrological events (≥ 40 mm rainfall over 4 days) through the phenomenon of temporary ponding. The method developed for the long-term stochastic recharge rate analysis could be applied in other settings as an alternative to, or to complement, large-scale, fully-distributed 3D numerical modelling.
Lakes are ecologically, economically, and culturally significant resources that are, at the same time, very fragile and sensitive to human disturbances. During the last decades, intensified urbanization and discharge of nutrients lead to the increase of lake eutrophication in many regions of the world. Moreover, biogeochemical cycles within the lakes are changing due to climate warming, which increases water temperature and affects physical and hydrological lake regimes. In this thesis, I investigate a vast scope of the natural and anthropogenic processes affecting the biogeochemical cycles in lakes at different scales. In particular, I examine the cascading effect of the climate, regional weather, human interventions, and microbial control on phosphorus dynamics in lakes. In Chapter 2, I demonstrate that on the lake scale, phosphorus cycle is driven by internal loading and iron recycling, while it is vulnerable to the reduction of ice cover. To achieve that, I expand the existing MyLake model by incorporating a sediment diagenesis module. Moreover, I develop the continuous reaction network that couples biogeochemical reactions taking place both in water column and sediment. In the modeling scenarios, I assess the importance of the sediment processes and the effects of the climatic and anthro- pogenic drivers on water quality in Lake Vansjø, Norway. I also highlight the importance of phosphorus accumulation within the lake that controls timing and magnitude of bio- geochemical lake responses to external forcing. This includes projected changes in the air temperature, absence of ice cover, and potential management practices. In Chapter 3, I contribute to the long-standing understanding that on the scales of microbial systems, the respiration reactions exert substantial control on biogeochemi- cal cycles by regulating the availability of the electron donors and acceptors, secondary minerals, adsorption sites, and alkalinity. Moreover, I develop a new conceptual model to simulate the preferential catabolic reaction pathways based on power produced in reactions. In contrast to common kinetic rate expressions, I demonstrate that new ther- modynamically based formulations can be applied to describe the microbial respiration of arbitrary large reaction networks. New approach substantially improves the robustness, transferability, and allows the generalization of the model-derived parameters. In Chapter 4, I show that on the regional scale, weather defines hydrodynamic flush rates and water circulation patterns, which, in turn, control the phosphorus transport in Lake Erie, Canada. Specifically, precipitation controls the release of phosphorus from the watershed in the spring, while wind governs the water circulation and transport of the phosphorus released from sediment in the central basin during summer. I also illustrate that climate and weather in the upper Laurentian Great Lakes regulate changes in the water level of Lake Erie. Overall, this thesis improves the fundamental understanding of the phosphorus cycle in lakes, which is being controlled by numerous biogeochemical and physical processes at various scales. In particular, I show that the climate has a cascading effect on the phosphorus cycle in lakes. First, climate controls regional precipitation, wind, and air temperature, which in turn control phosphorus supply from the watershed and basin- wide phosphorus transport. Second, being vulnerable to climate warming, the duration of ice cover impacts the phosphorus cycle through changes in light attenuation, water temperature, mixing regimes, and water column ventilation. Lastly, local environmental perturbations (e.g., pH, temperature, or redox state) define thermodynamic properties of the sediment, which control microbial metabolism and, therefore, the internal phosphorus loading. Finally, this thesis provides new open-source tools for reactive transport simula- tions in lakes as well as in saturated media. In addition to the coupled lake-sediment model developed in Chapter 3, I develop a computer program PorousMediaLab, which performs biogeochemical simulations in water-saturated media and described In Chapter 5. PorousMediaLab is the core component of the numerical investigations presented in the thesis. For example, PorousMediaLab is applied in Chapter 2 to design and test the initial reaction network, calculate fluxes at the sediment-water interface, and estimate re- action timescales. In Chapter 3, PorousMediaLab is used to simulate the reaction rates of batch and one-dimensional sediment column using a novel approach based on the thermo- dynamic switch function. In Chapter 4, PorousMediaLab is used to build a mass balance model and to improve the current understanding of the inter-basin exchange. Both tools are open-source, and they are available online.
This thesis examines the use of Global Navigation Satellite System Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) for the study of lake ice with a particular focus on the estimation of ice thickness. Experiments were conducted in two lake regions: (1) sub-Arctic lakes located near Yellowknife and Inuvik in the Northwest Territories during March 2017 and 2019, and (2) MacDonald Lake, Haliburton, Ontario, which is known as a mid-latitude lake, during the ice season of 2019-2020. For both regions, GNSS-IR results are compared and validated against in-situ ice and on-ice snow measurements, and also with ice thickness derived from thermodynamic lake ice models. In the first experiment, GNSS antennas were installed directly on the ice surface and the ice thickness at each site was estimated by analyzing the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the reflected GNSS signals. The GNSS-IR capability of ice thickness estimation tested on sub-Arctic lakes results in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.07 m, a mean bias error (MBE) of -0.01 m, and a correlation of 0.66. At MacDonald Lake, a GNSS antenna was mounted on a 5-m tower on the shore to collect reflected signals from the lake surface. The Least-Squares Harmonic Estimation (LS-HE) method was applied to retrieve higher SNR frequencies in order to estimate the depths of multiple layers within lake ice and the overlaying snowpack. Promising results were obtained from this experiment; however, ice thickness estimation using GNSS-IR at this mid-latitude lake site was found to be highly dependent on the presence or absence of wet layers such as slush at the snow-ice interface and wet snow above that interface. On colder days, when there was a lower chance for the formation of wet layers, ice thickness could be estimated with a correlation of 0.68, RMSE of 0.07 m, and MBE of -0.02 m. In addition, GNSS-IR showed the potential for determining the freeze-up and break-up timing based on the SNR amplitude of reflected signals. The novel work presented in this thesis points to the potential of using reflected signals acquired by recent (e.g. Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) and TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1)) and future GNSS-R missions for lake ice investigations.
Increased phosphorus (P) loadings from agricultural runoff into the Great Lakes can lead to eutrophication, resulting in harmful algal blooms and hypoxic conditions. Many studies have demonstrated that subsurface tile drains contribute to total P loss, particularly under no-till. However, most studies have been conducted on soils receiving synthetic fertilizers, and less is understood regarding P loss in tile drains following manure application and if and how tillage and/or manure placement can impact these losses. The goal of this study was to determine if different management practices i.e., conservation till, conventional till, and incorporation, mitigates P loss through tile drains following fall manure application over the Non-Growing Season (NGS). The objectives of this field-based study were to: 1) quantify annual runoff, and P loss from tile drains in a silt loam soil throughout the NGS; 2) investigate if losses differ between conventional and conservation tillage; and 3) determine if incorporation of manure impacts P loss in tile runoff. Tile discharge was monitored from 3 adjacent tile drains with different management treatments (annual till without incorporation, conservation till (with and without manure incorporation) over the span of 8 years (2011-2018), with water samples collected during runoff events for most years during this period. Two years that followed fall manure application (2014-15, 2017-18) were selected for more intensive study. Most P loss occurred during discrete hydrologic events over the NGS, predominantly during the first large discharge event. During this event deep annual tillage increased P loss compared to conservation tillage, with manure incorporation further reducing P loss resulting in differences in cumulative P loss in the tiles over the NGS. This study highlights the importance of in-field long term monitoring in order to capture temporal and spatial variability within a system and recommends that fall manure is incorporated to reduce P losses in tile drains.
Nutrient losses from agricultural operations contributes to the issue of eutrophication of freshwater systems. Although many studies have been conducted on diffuse nutrient losses from fertilizer application, there is a paucity of studies on point source phosphorus (P) loss from bunker silos. Furthermore, the build-up of legacy P in the landscape from historical land management practices can create critical source areas of P that contribute to P loads long after those practices cease. The goal of this thesis is to quantify the contribution of a dairy farm (dominated by bunker silo losses) to watershed P losses, and to monitor P concentrations in surface and groundwater across a riparian zone to characterize the sorption potential of its sediments and infer whether the riparian zone may be acting as a sink for P, or a source of previously retained (legacy) P to the stream. Stream discharge was monitored continuously throughout the study, and automatic water samplers were deployed in the stream above, and below the bunker silo to analyze soluble reactive P (SRP), total dissolved P (TDP), and total P (TP) on an event basis. The riparian zone was equipped with a series of nested wells and piezometers along a three transects to monitor groundwater P levels, and to determine the hydraulic conductivity of the riparian groundwater. A transect was also installed on the unaffected side of the transect as a reference. The farmyard contribution to watershed P losses over a one-year period was 32% (SRP) and 22% (TP). Cumulative loads over the entire study suggest that the farmyard P losses were 21.2 kg/ha SRP and 120 kg/ha TP. Peak P concentrations occurred during snowmelt and thaw events and were smaller during periods of baseflow. However, after the bunker silo was refilled in mid-summer months, both SRP and TP were considerably elevated. Large amounts of P were found to be stored in the riparian soil, however, estimated contributions of riparian P to the overall loads were negligible. This may be a result of missed flowpaths during site set-up, or an occurrence of upwelling of P in the streambed. The results of this research suggest that this particular farmyard bunker silo contributes large amounts of P to the adjacent stream on an annual basis. This study should be used as a starting point for future studies examining livestock farmyard nutrient losses.
Alpine regions contribute 60 % of annual surface runoff, playing an important role in regulating the global water balance. Many of the world’s major river networks originate from alpine headwater basins, popularizing mountains as the “Water Towers of the World”. The Rocky Mountains represent Western Canada’s “Water Tower” since they store and distribute water resources to over 13 million people across Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest USA. At the headwater, topography causes land surfaces to cycle in and out of shadows, creating distinct microclimates that strongly influence evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon fluxes. Yet, relatively few studies have observed the relationship between the energy, water, and carbon fluxes of mountain catchments; and have rather focused on periods of snow and ice cover. Therefore, understanding the contribution of subalpine wetlands to the water budget remains a leading hydrological need in mountain areas worldwide. This thesis attempts to address these knowledge gaps by investigating the influence of complex terrain on the spatial and temporal variability of shade across a subalpine wetland (2,083 m a.s.l.) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and the effect of shade on seasonal flux dynamics. Meteorological and eddy covariance equipment was installed from June 7th to September 10th to establish baseline environment conditions and to monitor the turbulent and radiative fluxes over the 2018 snow free period. Hill shade and solar radiation models for clear-sky days were compared to field observations to understand how shade impacted the energy, water, and carbon fluxes. Water Use Efficiency (WUE) was used as a metric to understand the relationship between water and carbon cycling. Overall, shade shortened the growing season and prolonged snowmelt. Shade was greatest near the headwall and reduced cumulative solar radiation by 86.4 MJ over the study period. When shade was low and constant during the period of Stable Shade (June 7th – July 30th), it had a non-significant relationship with incoming solar radiation (K↓) and net radiation (Q*); however, when shade rapidly increased during the period of Dynamic Shade (July 31st – September 10th) it strongly influenced K↓ and Q*. On average, during Dynamic Shade, each hourly increase of shade per day, reduced K↓ and Q* by 32 W/m2 and 28 W/m2, equivalent to 13 % and 16 %, respectively. Water and carbon fluxes had a similar response to shade as the energy fluxes. Each hourly increase of shade reduced ET and Gross Primary Production (GPP) by similar margins: 17 % and 15 %, respectively. Therefore, WUE remained relatively unaffected by horizon shade, because shade equally reduced ET and GPP. These findings indicate that under uncertain future climate scenarios (i.e. increased risk of flood, drought, and forest fires), shade may be an important mechanism for moisture conservation in a variety of subalpine ecosystems that are at risk of late season water stress.
Canada’s Rocky Mountains provide a large and essential supply of freshwater to downstream ecosystems and communities. Previous research has demonstrated that warmer temperatures, associated with climate change, are expected to increase the recruitment of trees towards alpine zones, by way of tree islands and krummholz. Tree islands and krummholz are coniferous trees that grow in isolated patches. Tree islands are stunted and deformed, yet their stems grow above the shrub layer, leaving them exposed to winter snowdrifts, unlike krummholz, which grow stunted or in matts, below the snowpack. These trees are unique, relative to conifers below the treeline limit, as they have growth mechanisms which allow them to persist in areas that are otherwise too harsh for full treeline expansion. This thesis addresses the complex relationships between the spatial variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in tree islands and krummholz on a subalpine ridge slope in Kananaskis, Alberta. As well, relationships between these canopies and controls on ET, such as snowcover, meteorological fluxes and vegetation characteristics are assessed. By addressing these objectives, this study will reduce existing knowledge gaps on how forest transition zones in mountain ecosystems may contribute to ecosystem water loss, should these tree patches continue to prosper at higher elevations. Atmometers, which measure the rate of ET from heterogenous landcover to the atmosphere, were used at FRS to determine the rate of potential crop evapotranspiration (ETC) from krummholz and tree islands. ETC was then converted to actual evapotranspiration (ETA) using patch-specific correction coefficients (KC) in order to address the influence of canopy dynamics and water availability on ET. ETA during the growing season was greater in the krummholz (190 mm) than the tree islands (131 mm). Krummholz were observed to be moisture rich tree patches that were shorter in height and more exposed than tree islands. Because of this, krummholz ET was controlled by the advection of sensible heat transported from drier areas downward over the krummholz resulting in oasis-effect ET (QE > Q*). Horizontal advection of sensible heat from the taller tree islands to the shorter krummholz increases clothesline-effect ET at FRS. In addition, the exposure of the krummholz to the effects of solar radiation to the their subsurface increases the rate of early growing season ETA by increasing soil water evaporation. Tree islands, which extend above the annual snowpack were capable of sheltering windblown snow, increasing the amount of water available to the tree islands and krummholz for the growing season. Water balances for the tree islands and krummholz indicated that SWE was the primary source of water to the patches and did not suggest water deficits during the observed growing season. Tree island ET rates were controlled by the evaporation of intercepted precipitation (2 - 58%), and growth characteristic such as increased canopy density, which increased subsurface sheltering, reducing soil water evaporation, while maintaining inner-canopy VPD (increases transpiration). The results of this study improve our knowledge of how tree islands and krummholz will influence ecosystem water storage, especially in terms of ET, and determined what dominant controls exist on ET in subalpine systems. As climate change is expected to decrease annual snowpack levels and increase seasonal air temperatures, ET from tree island and krummholz may contribute to water deficits in subalpine ecosystems.
The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of seasonal snow and its impact on socio-economic and environmental functionality make accurate, real-time estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) important for hydrological and climatological predictions. Passive microwave remote sensing offers a cost effective, temporally and spatially consistent approach to SWE monitoring at the global to regional scale. However, local scale estimates are subject to large errors given the coarse spatial resolution of passive microwave observations (25 x 25 km). Regression downscaling techniques can be implemented to increase the spatial resolution of gridded datasets with the use of related auxiliary datasets at a finer spatial resolution. These techniques have been successfully implemented to remote sensing datasets such as soil moisture estimates, however, limited work has applied such techniques to snow-related datasets. This thesis focuses on assessing the feasibility of using regression downscaling to increase the spatial resolution of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Globsnow SWE product in the Red River basin, an agriculturally important region of the northern United States that is widely recognized as a suitable location for passive microwave remote sensing research. Multiple Linear (MLR), Random Forest (RFR) and Geographically Weighted (GWR) regression downscaling techniques were assessed in a closed loop experiment using Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) SWE estimates at a 1 x 1 km spatial resolution. SNODAS SWE data for a 5-year period between 2013-2018 was aggregated to a 25 x 25 km spatial resolution to match Globsnow. The three regression techniques were applied using correlative datasets to downscale the aggregated SNODAS data back to the original 1 x 1 km spatial resolution. By comparing the downscaled SNODAS estimates to the original SNODAS data, it was found that RFR downscaling produced much less variation in downscaled results, and lower RMSE values throughout the study period when compared to MLR and GWR downscaling techniques, indicating it was the optimal downscaling method. RFR downscaling was then implemented on daily Globsnow SWE estimates for the same time period. The downscaled SWE results were evaluated using SNODAS SWE as well as in situ derived SWE estimates from weather stations within the study region. Spatial and temporal errors were assessed using both the SNODAS and in situ reference datasets and overall RMSEs of 21 mm and 37 mm were found, respectively. It was observed that the southern regions of the basin and seasons with higher downscaled SWE estimates were associated with higher errors with overestimation being the most common bias throughout the region. A major contribution of this study is the illustration that RFR downscaling of Globsnow SWE estimates is a feasible approach to understanding the seasonal dynamics of SWE in the Red River basin. This is extremely beneficial for local communities within the basin for flood management and mitigation and water resource management.
Non-point source anthropogenic nutrient loading through intensive farming practices is a global source of water quality degradation by creating harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems. Phosphorus, as the key nutrient in this process, has received much attention in different studies as well as conservation programs aimed at mitigating the transfer of polluting nutrients to freshwater resources. Central to conservation initiatives developed to maintain and improve water quality is the application of the Conservation Practices (CPs), introduced widely as practical, cost-effective measures with overall positive impacts on the rate of nutrient load reductions from farmlands to freshwater resources. Crop rotation is one of the field-based BMPs applied to maintain the overall soil fertility and preventing the displacement of the topsoil layers by surface water runoff across the agricultural watersheds. The underlying concept in the application of this particular BMP is a deviation from the monoculture cropping system by integrating different crops into the farming process. This way, cultivated soils do not lose key nutrients, which are necessary for crop growth, and the overall crop productivity remains unchanged in the landscape. The successful implementation of crop rotation highly depends on planning the rotation process, which is influenced by a variety of environmental, structural, and managerial factors, including the size of farmlands, climate variability, crop type, level of implementation, soil type, and market prices among other factors. Each of these decision variables is subject to variation depending upon the variability of other factors, the complexity of watersheds upon which this BMP is implemented, and the overall objectives of the BMP adoption. This study aims to investigate two of these decision variables and their potential impacts on phosphorus load reductions through a scenario-based hydrologic modeling framework developed to iv assess the post-crop rotation water quality improvements across the Medway Creek Watershed, situated in the Lake Erie Basin in Ontario, Canada. These variables are the spatial pattern of crop rotation and its level of implementation, assessed at the watershed scale through the modifications made to the delineation of the basic Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) in the modeling process as well as certain assumptions in the management schedules, and decision rules required for the integration of crop rotation into the proposed modeling framework and optimal placement of this non-structural BMP across the watershed. The main modeling package utilized in this study is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), used in conjunction with the ArcGIS and IBMSPSS tools to allow for spatial assessment and statistical analyses of the proposed hydrologic modeling results, respectively. Following in-depth statistical analyses of the scenarios, the results of the study elicit the critical role of both factors by proposing optimal ranges of application on the watershed under study. Accordingly, to achieve optimal implementation results compared to the baseline scenario, which has the zero rate of implementation, conservation initiatives in the watershed are encouraged to consider the targeted placement of crop rotation on half of the lands under cultivation. Despite, having a statistically significant impact on water quality compared to the baseline scenario, the random distribution scenario is less effective than the targeted scenario in mitigation of total phosphorus load. Similarly, compared to the medium rate of implementation the targeted placement in a higher proportion of the cultivated areas did not lead to statistically significant results but may be considered depending upon the purpose and scope of implementation.
Spatial data is characterized by rich contextual information with multiple characteristics at each location. The interpretation of this multifaceted data is an integral part of current technological developments, data rich environments and data driven approaches for solving complex problems. While data availability, exploitation and complexity continue to grow, new technologies, tools and methods continue to evolve in order to meet these demands, including advancing analytical capabilities, as well as the explicit formalization of geographic knowledge. In spite of these developments Discrete Global Grid Systems (DGGS) were proposed as a new comprehensive approach for transforming scientific data of various sources, types and qualities into one integrated environment. The DGGS framework was developed as the global data model and standard for efficient storage, analysis and visualization of spatial information via a discrete hierarchy of equal area cells at various spatial resolutions. Each DGGS cell is the explicit representation of the Earth surface, which can store multiple data values and be conveniently recognized and identified within the hierarchy of the DGGS system. A detailed evaluation of some notable DGGS implementations in this research indicates great prospects and flexibility in performing essential data management operations, including spatial analysis and visualization. Yet they fall short in recognizing interactivity between system components and their visualization, nor providing advanced data friendly techniques. To address these limitations and promote further theoretical advancement of DGGS, this research suggests the use of Q-analysis theory as a way to utilize the potential of the hierarchical DGGS data model via the tools of simplicial complexes and algebraic topology. As a proof of concept and demonstration of Q-analysis feasibility, the method has been applied in a water quality and water health study, the interpretation of which has revealed much contextual information about the behaviour of the water network, the spread of pollution and chain affects. It is concluded that the use of Q-analysis indeed contributes to the further advancement and development of DGGS as a data rich framework for formalizing multilevel data systems and for the exploration of new data driven and data friendly approaches to close the gap between knowledge and data complexity.
Background: In the subarctic Dehcho region of the Northwest Territories, many remote communities rely on traditional foods, including fish, to supplement more expensive store-bought options. Fish are an excellent source of omega-3 and omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 and n-6 PUFAs, respectively), essential compounds that can only be obtained through the diet. Long-chain n-3 PUFAs, such as eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), are especially important for human health. As the health benefits derived from consuming fish can be diminished by the risk imposed by exposure to contaminants, such as mercury, researchers and communities in the Dehcho region began a collaborative project in 2012 to quantify both fatty acid and mercury concentrations in fish. In the course of this work, it was found that concentrations of fatty acids in fish differed significantly among lakes in the Dehcho region. In freshwater ecosystems, fatty acids are produced by algae and bacteria and transferred up the food chain through consumption. The type and quality of fatty acids produced varies among primary producer taxa, meaning that fatty acid profiles in fish may vary among lakes due to variation in the composition of algal and bacterial communities, which in turn vary in response to abiotic conditions in lakes. Objectives: As some fish samples were stored for multiple years before processing, the first objective of this study was to determine if there was a relationship between concentrations of fatty acids and storage time at -20 degrees C. After determining which fatty acids were affected by storage time and how they were affected by storage time, the second objective was to update existing fish fatty acid profiles (analysed from samples collected 2013-2015) for the study lakes. The third objective was to determine whether there were differences in concentrations among lakes for several fatty acid groups of interest, including total fatty acids (TFA), n-3 and n-6 PUFAs, DHA, and EPA, and whether observed differences in fish fatty acid profiles could be explained by water chemistry and/or watershed characteristics among lakes. Methods: A total of 433 fish, including Burbot (Lota lota), Cisco (Coregonus artedi), Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Longnose Sucker (Catastomus catastomus), Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), Northern Pike (Esox lucius), Walleye (Sander vitreus), and White Sucker (Catastomus commersoni) were captured in 10 important subsistence lakes within the Dehcho region between the years of 2013 and 2018. Sampled lakes were located in three different eco-zones, the Hay River Lowlands, the Horn Plateau, and the Northern Alberta Uplands. Fish muscle tissue was frozen on-site and transported back to the University of Waterloo for laboratory analysis of both fatty acid and mercury concentrations. Water samples were collected at each lake to characterise lake chemistry (e.g. major nutrients, ions, dissolved organic carbon, etc.), and these data were compared to an existing dataset on watershed characteristics (e.g. lake area, watershed area, etc.). Results: In every fish species, DHA concentrations decreased exponentially with increasing storage time, while C:24:0, a saturated fatty acid, increased significantly with increasing storage time. Updated fish fatty acid profiles and mercury concentrations confirmed results found by Reyes et al (2017) and Laird et al (2018); Cisco, Lake Whitefish, Longnose Sucker, and White Sucker are the fish species with the highest fatty acid concentrations and lowest mercury concentrations. Concentrations of all fatty acid groups examined in Northern Pike were statistically different among lakes (TFA, n-3 and n-6 PUFAs, EPA, and DHA), while only some fatty acid groups in Lake Whitefish (TFA, n-6 PUFAs, and DHA) and Walleye (n-3 and n-6 PUFAs) varied significantly among lakes. Significant predictors of concentrations of fish fatty acids included both water chemistry and watershed characteristics, and fell into 3 distinct groups of variables: lake productivity (total phosphorus), indicators of carbon quality (UV254, specific UV absorbance, dissolved organic carbon, and total nitrogen), and catchment influence (chloride concentrations, calcium concentrations, and the ratio of lake perimeter to watershed area). Understanding factors that lead to variation in concentrations of fish fatty acids, both among lakes and because of storage practices, can inform predictions of the nutritional value of fish in other lakes, provide a baseline for assessing ongoing effects of climate-induced change, and allow community members to make informed choices about the fish that they are eating.
Lake Erie’s commercial and recreational walleye fishery is the largest of the Great Lakes, requiring effective management to maintain a sustainable and complex fishery. Lake Erie’s walleye fishery is composed of multiple spawning populations, which presents a management challenge. The movement patterns and recruitment of distinct walleye populations that make up the fishery must be considered by managers to avoid overexploitation and to maintain population diversity. The Grand River walleye population in Lake Erie’s eastern basin is considered a priority for rehabilitation due to blocked access to spawning habitat by a low-head dam and degraded habitat quality. The objectives of this study were to: i) investigate movement patterns of spawning walleye in the Grand River using acoustic telemetry; and, ii) investigate movement and habitat use of young-of-the-year (YOY) walleye in relation to the Dunnville Dam and surrounding habitat segments using stable isotope analysis. Between 2015 and 2018, 267 mature walleye were tracked in the Grand River using acoustic telemetry, and in fall of 2018 144 YOY walleye were sampled from the river via boat-mounted electrofishing. Both male and female mature walleye that were moved upstream of the Dunnville dam were found to actively migrate ~20-40 km up-river to areas with suspected suitable spawning substrate during the spring spawning season. Residence time of walleye above the Dunnville Dam and timing of return migrations suggest that the dam may be acting as an impediment to downstream movement. Of all the walleye tagged, 43% returned to the Grand River during at least one year subsequent to the initial spawning season during which they were tagged, and those that returned were detected at spawning habitat below the Dunnville Dam during March and April. Although differences in YOY walleye stable isotope signatures (carbon and nitrogen) were evident across sampling locations in the Grand River in fall of 2018, YOY walleye were not successfully sampled in 2019 and a description of the trophic baseline was needed to infer YOY walleye movements. Condition of YOY walleye sampled during the fall of 2018 was highest at the river mouth, which may indicate relatively favourable health conditions for YOY walleye at this location. The results of the biotelemetry study suggest that the removal of the Dunnville Dam or the construction of a functional fishway would increase access to potential additional spawning habitat, which may lead to an increase in successful spawning activity for the Grand River walleye population. Future research on YOY walleye in the southern Grand River will be necessary to enhance the understanding of how recruitment and year-class strength is impacted by movement barriers (i.e., Dunnville Dam) and variation in spawning and nursery habitat quality (i.e., abiotic and biotic stressors). Furthermore, additional analyses on mature walleye apparent annual survival and spawning site fidelity probabilities would further inform our understanding of Grand River walleye movement and support walleye management in Lake Erie’s eastern basin.
As wetlands around the world are being lost, policies are implemented to help protect further destruction and loss of valuable services that wetlands provide. In Alberta, wetland policy has been put in place with the goals of protecting the most valuable wetlands and replacing necessary loss of wetlands to maintain functional value. To help the policy meet its objectives, the Alberta Wetland Rapid Evaluation Tool-Actual (ABWRET-A) was developed and implemented in Alberta’s settled area in 2015 as a standardized way to give a value score via functional assessment to any wetland in the province, with the hopes that the most valuable wetlands will be conserved. These assessment tools are in constant need of review and improvement to make sure they are helping meet policy goals. I assess biases made in the selection for ABWRET-A calibration wetlands and determine how these biases affect ABWRET-A scoring to determine if subsequent scores provided by this tool are over or under estimating wetland value. I also assess the wetlands that underwent ABWRET-A evaluation and were drained or filled in under a permit in the 1.5 yr after ABWRET-A implementation in Alberta’s settled region to determine whether they mirror the calibration wetlands. I found that the calibration dataset comprised larger, more permanently ponded wetlands distributed closer to roads than the general wetland population. I also found that the calibration dataset included fewer bogs and more fens. I found that larger wetlands and wetlands classified as fens received higher ABWRET-A scores, whereas wetlands close to roads received lower scores. Consequently, I surmise that the scores being given out since ABWRET-A’s implementation are likely underestimates. This is corroborated by a lower distribution of scores in the wetlands permitted for drainage than policy recommends. The wetlands being targeted for permitted loss were also smaller, more road-proximate, and concentrated around major cities, implying permanent regional loss of those wetlands and their functions. Based on these findings, I make suggestions for improving ABWRET-A, including adding calibration sites to better capture the natural variability of wetlands in the area to improve ABWRET-A’s accuracy in estimating relative wetland value.
In agricultural watersheds across the world, decades of commercial fertilizer application and intensive livestock production have led to elevated stream nutrient levels and problems of eutrophication in both inland and coastal waters. Despite widespread implementation of a range of strategies to reduce nutrient export to receiving water bodies, expected improvements in water quality have often not been observed. It is increasingly understood that long time lags to seeing reductions in stream nutrient concentrations can result from the existence of legacy nutrient stores within the landscape. However, it is less understood how spatial heterogeneity in legacy nutrient dynamics might allow us to target implementation of appropriate management practices. In this thesis, we have explored the dominant controls of legacy nitrogen accumulation in a predominantly agricultural 6000-km2 mixed-landuse watershed. First, we synthesized a 216 year (1800 – 2016) nitrogen (N) mass balance trajectory at the subbasin scale accounting for inputs from population, agriculture, and atmospheric data, and output from crop production using a combination of census data, satellite imagery data, and existing model estimates. Using these data, we calculated the N surplus, defined as the difference between inputs to the soil surface from manure application, atmospheric deposition, fertilizer application, and biological N fixation, and outputs primarily from crop production. We then used the ELEMeNT-N model, with the estimates of the N mass balance components as the model inputs, to quantify legacy accumulation in the groundwater and soil in the study basin and 13 of its subbasins. Our results showed that from 1950, N surplus across the study site rose dramatically and plateaued in 1980. Agricultural inputs from fertilizer and biological nitrogen fixation were the dominant drivers of N surplus magnitude in all areas of the watershed. Model results revealed that 40% of the N surplus to the watershed since 1940 is stored as legacy N, and that the proportion of N surplus that is stored as legacy vary across the watershed, ranging from 33% to 69%. Where legacy tends to accumulate also varies across the watershed, ranging from 49% - 72% stored in soil, and 28% - 51% stored in groundwater. Through correlation analysis, we found that soil N accumulation tends to occur where there is high agricultural N surplus, and groundwater N accumulation tends to occur where mean groundwater travel times are long. We also found that using the model calibrated mean groundwater travel times as an indication of lag times, we can identify the length of lag time in various regions in the watershed to help inform long-term management plans. Our modeling framework provides a way forward for the design of more targeted approaches to water quality management.
A data driven approach was used in this study to investigate the drivers of nutrient water quality across the Laurentian Great Lakes drainage basin. Monitored time series of nutrient water quality and discharge were modelled using a dynamic regression-based model. Random forest machine learning was used as a framework to assess drivers of nutrient water quality, using mean annual flow-weighted concentrations (FWCs) and ratios calculated from modelled water quality, combined with spatial factors from monitored watersheds. Analysis revealed that landscape variables of developed land use, tile drained land, and wetland area played important roles in controlling nitrate and nitrite (DIN) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) FWCs, while soil type and wetland area was important for controlling particulate phosphorus (PP) FWCs. Fertilizer and manure practices were important controls in nutrient ratios of SRP:Total Phosphorus (TP), and DIN:TP, with developed land use, manure application, and tile drained land important for the former, and developed land use and manure application (vs synthetic fertilizer application) important for the latter. Plots of feature contribution were generated to isolate the effect that spatial variables had in machine learning models and revealed underlying behaviour of important controls in driving nutrient water quality across the basin. Random forest models were further developed to predict FWCs and ratios of nutrients across all watersheds within the Great Lakes drainage basin. Modelled results revealed hot spots of high DIN, SRP and PP in the watersheds along the southeastern shores of Lake Huron, on the eastern watersheds of the Huron-Erie corridor, and in the southwestern watersheds of Lake Erie. High SRP:TP ratio hot spots were seen in watersheds along the southeastern shores of Lake Huron and along the eastern side of the Huron-Erie corridor. Hot spots of low DIN:TP ratios with high nutrient export were seen in the southwestern watersheds of Lake Erie, which has implications for harmful algal growth. Nutrient ratios across the Great Lakes watersheds compared similarly to other heavily human impacted catchments of the Baltic Sea and western Europe. Annual basin loads of DIN, SRP, and TP were estimated from random forest models for each year from 2000-2016. Calculated annual nutrient loadings of SRP and TP were consistent with other published values of Great Lakes watershed estimates and revealed highest loadings during 2011 when the largest recorded algal bloom in Lake Erie occurred to date. Overall, this data-driven analysis of nutrient water quality reinforces and refines our process understanding of nutrient pollution dynamics across the Great Lakes drainage basin.